FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

Gold begins the week with moderate support as a weaker US dollar and a sharp decline in oil prices ease concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. However, the Federal Reserve?s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside support from some policymakers for a rate increase, is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for the metal.

The main test will come from the US labor market data. Weak figures could reduce expectations of a rate increase and strengthen interest in XAUUSD, while a strong report may restore pressure. If the US dollar remains subdued and oil market conditions stay stable, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00




The #SP500 is receiving support from lower oil prices, which reduce the risk of renewed pressure on corporate costs and consumer demand. The earnings season also remains a source of resilience, although the market?s response to technology sector results is becoming more selective.

This week, the index?s direction will be shaped by employment data and further corporate earnings reports. A strong labor market could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase and intensify pressure from elevated yields. For now, the decline in the energy risk premium is supporting demand for equities, leaving a cautious upside scenario as the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670




Brent begins the week with a sharp decline after the United States cancelled new strikes against Iran and hopes for renewed negotiations increased. The restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk premium, while higher OPEC+ production quotas from September are reinforcing expectations of more abundant supply.

Negotiations could still break down, while regional supplies remain constrained, meaning the decline in oil prices may not be one-sided. Nevertheless, part of the geopolitical premium has already been removed, while demand forecasts remain restrained. If the diplomatic scenario remains intact, the priority stays with further downside in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD ? ADP Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD ? ISM Services PMI

USDJPY:



The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan?s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization.

Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo?s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades.

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Slower growth in Japan?s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90

Gold delivered one of its strongest moves in recent months. During the August 5 trading session, XAUUSD gained about 4.4% and climbed above $4,250 per ounce ? reaching its highest level in roughly seven weeks. The rally was especially notable after several months of decline. As recently as August 3, gold was trading near $4,030, meaning its value increased by more than 5% in just a few sessions!



Factors behind XAUUSD growth:

• 1. Weaker dollar. The decline of the U.S. currency made gold cheaper for buyers from other countries and supported demand. At the same time, falling government bond yields reduced the advantage of interest-bearing assets over gold, which does not generate income on its own.
• 2. Weak U.S. data. The private sector created fewer jobs than expected. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 67% to 55%, providing an additional reason to buy gold.
• 3. Falling oil prices. Talks between Iran and Oman increased hopes for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure and reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
• 4. Return of buyers. Holding the key psychological level of $4,000 attracted traders expecting a rebound after a prolonged correction. Accelerating growth forced the closure of short positions, further strengthening the upward momentum.

Despite the sharp jump, gold is still trading well below its January all-time high. Therefore, the current move could mark either the beginning of a new recovery phase or a short-term reaction to shifting expectations regarding Fed policy.

According to FreshForex analysts, a move above $4,300 will confirm buyer strength and open the way for further growth, making current levels potentially attractive for buying gold. A drop back below $4,100 would weaken this scenario and indicate fading upward momentum.

The pound begins the new session with moderate support from fresh UK labor market data. The REC/KPMG survey showed signs of stabilization in hiring in July and faster growth in starting salaries. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions and keeps the Bank of England focused on price pressures, but it does not yet provide GBPUSD with a strong independent bullish driver.

Following weak US employment data, the dollar lost some of its advantage, although demand for the US currency is recovering moderately at the start of Monday?s session. US Treasury yields are edging higher, while the market is reluctant to extend Friday?s repricing of Federal Reserve expectations ahead of the July inflation report. For the pound, this creates renewed pressure despite more resilient signals from the UK labor market.

The Bank of England is keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, so the pound?s next move will depend on whether upcoming data confirm economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure. For now, the fresh UK factor only limits downside pressure and does not outweigh the current US dollar impulse. Under the baseline scenario, the bias remains toward a moderate decline in GBPUSD during the session.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400

Bitcoin is starting to come back to life. The price made a sharp move lower. As previously discussed, before resuming the broader uptrend, the market could attempt a manipulation move in the opposite direction. This may be exactly what we are seeing now.

The decline can therefore be interpreted as a false breakout. If so, buyers may become active in the near future and quickly push the price back toward the levels from which the decline began.

The uptrend should then resume and develop into an impulsive structure, as Wave 3 is expected to unfold.

For this reason, long positions may be considered once the price breaks above the nearest local high formed before the recent decline.

Investment idea: BUY 65450, SL 63500, TP 75000.