FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

The Bitcoin situation continues to follow the previously analyzed wave scenario.

The price rose slightly, but sellers immediately reacted by actively pushing the price down, which caused the rate to return to its starting point for this rise.

However, it is unlikely that this marks the beginning of the final wave c of (y) of the assumed double zigzag. Most likely, we will see one more weak attempt to rise, after which the expected longer decline will occur.

Thus, there is no need to rush into opening short positions at this time. It is better to spend today's trading day observing price behavior.

Investment idea: FLAT.

The British pound retains local support amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England next week. The market has almost fully priced in such a move following higher-than-expected September inflation and accelerating wage growth. These factors prevent the regulator from easing policy and support the attractiveness of the pound relative to currencies with less pronounced inflationary pressure.

For GBPUSD, this factor coincided with a decline in US yields. Purchases of US bonds amid concerns over the technology sector weaken the dollar's yield advantage. However, the Fed's decision to hold rates steady does not signal a shift toward cutting: persistent inflation leaves open the risk of further tightening and limits the scope for potential pound strength.

A significant portion of the expected Bank of England decision is already priced in, so a mere expectation of a rate hike is insufficient for sustained growth. Expensive energy also reduces the real income of British consumers. Nevertheless, if the dollar remains weak, the base case allows for GBPUSD growth. A return of demand for the dollar and rising US yields could change this outlook.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3395, SL 1.3365, TP 1.3470

For gold, the main test of the week will be US employment data and its impact on rate expectations. The Fed maintained the range of 3.75?4.00%, noting strong economic growth and elevated inflation. As long as the risk of further tightening remains significant, the metal, lacking interest income, faces competition from dollar-denominated assets.

Uncertainty surrounding the Congressional elections supports safe-haven demand but does not eliminate pressure on the cost of money. Weak employment figures and declining yields could shift the scenario in favor of gold. However, if the statistics confirm the economy's resilience, expectations of high rates will continue to exert influence. In that case, the basic weekly idea for XAUUSD suggests a decline.

Trading Idea: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43




Earnings reports from Apple, AMD, and Palantir will test confidence in AI investments following disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel. For the market, it is no longer just infrastructure spending that matters, but also their return in terms of profit and cash flow. A deterioration in this assessment could sustain pressure on tech companies with significant weight in #SP500.

Congressional elections add uncertainty around industry regulation, while Friday's employment data will influence funding cost expectations. Rising aggregate corporate profits remain the index's support. However, convincing business forecasts are needed to restore confidence. As long as concerns about AI profitability persist, the weekly scenario allows for further downside in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346




The new week began with negotiations between Iran and Qatar, which continued for a third consecutive day. Hope for a diplomatic resolution can reduce the oil risk premium even before supply restoration. This creates grounds for a decline in #BRENT, although the consultations themselves do not yet signify an end to the conflict or normalization of shipments.

OPEC+ maintained its December production targets on Sunday, while export disruptions and threats to tankers keep the risk of shortage alive. Therefore, the potential for price declines depends primarily on further diplomatic signals. In the absence of new escalation, the base idea assumes a reduction in the oil risk premium; failed negotiations or serious supply disruptions could cancel this out.

Trading idea: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32

On November 2, oil futures experienced a massive sell-off: Brent lost 7.6%, WTI ? 7.3%. The catalyst was talks between Iran and Qatari mediators, which fueled expectations of a conflict resolution and the restoration of supplies from the Middle East. As of today #BRENT is trading around $104.66, #WTI at $96.26 per barrel.



Why oil remains under pressure

At the end of October, Brent reached its highest levels in six months amid fears of a new escalation of the conflict. These negotiations changed that sentiment and became a reason for reducing positions opened in anticipation of further oil price increases.

There has been no diplomatic breakthrough yet, but contacts continue. The prospect of more stable exports reduces buyers' willingness to pay for the threat of shortages. According to analysts at FreshForex, the reduction in this premium is currently creating the main downward pressure on the market.

Reports of a US strike on Iran's Kish Island on the morning of November 3 triggered only a slight initial rise in quotes relative to the previous crash. Geopolitical news has not yet returned strength to the market.

OPEC+ also failed to provide buyers with a new argument: on November 2, seven agreement members maintained their September target production levels for December without additional cuts. Maintaining the previous restrictions proved insufficient to counter expectations of improved supply.

Cheaper oil supports the European economy

Falling oil prices also affect other trading instruments. For European businesses, it means easing pressure on transportation and production costs. Through this channel, cheaper energy creates fundamental support for #DAX30.

For EURUSD a favorable factor is the decrease in the cost of energy imports for the eurozone. Thus, falling oil improves conditions for the European economy, although its impact on currencies and stocks materializes alongside other market factors.

According to analysts at FreshForex, the combination of fundamental factors and the current price structure support the continuation of the decline in #BRENT and #WTI. Negotiations are weakening geopolitical price support, and the decision by seven OPEC+ members did not add any new supply constraints.

For #BRENT's next downside target is $103.00, followed by $100.00. For #WTI analysts highlight $95.00 and then $94.00. The weak recovery after the sharp drop maintains sellers' advantage.

Long-term trend: short. The maximum volume accumulation for the current contract is located in the range of 4150.00?4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being conducted below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.



Medium-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation for the medium-term trend is located in the range of 3940.00-3960.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being conducted above this range, indicating strong buying pressure.

The area of favorable buy prices from a margin perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the maximum of 05.11.2026.

Quote for the upper boundary of zone 1/4 ? 4114.47.

Quote for the upper boundary of zone 1/2 ? 4063.97.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 05.11.2026 ? 4164.87.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ ? 4298.67.



Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4063.97?4114.47, Take Profit 1 ? 4164.87, Take Profit 2 ? 4298.67.

The US market rally after the elections lasted only one session. On November 5, investors began selling off shares of chip and server manufacturers, and the decline soon spread to the broader market. #NQ100 plunged to the vicinity 26,300 points and bounced back to 26 900. The benchmark indices for #SP500 and #DJI30 ended the US session with declines of 4,4% and 3,4% respectively.

At the end of October, we wrote that renewed interest in AI had helped US indices bounce back. At that time, investors were encouraged by strong cloud business results and clearer timelines for return on investment. Now, the market has to reassess how quickly data centers will be built and when suppliers will receive orders that investors are already counting on.



Why Congressional elections hit AI stocks

Democrats secured a majority in both chambers of Congress. On Wednesday, the broad market reacted to the election results with gains, but on Thursday attention shifted to what the change in majority might mean for the AI industry. Investors began factoring in the risk of stricter regulation on data center construction. One contentious issue is the strain on power grids.

If approval for new sites drags on, some orders for chips, servers, and networking equipment may be pushed back. This is particularly critical for companies whose stock prices have already priced in rapid supply growth.

Reports fuel the sell-off

Fresh results from Qualcomm and Arm added reasons to sell. Qualcomm's quarterly revenue from smartphone chips fell by 26% year-over-year and came in below forecasts. Arm reported record total revenue, but received $670 million in royalties for the use of its technologies against expectations of around $721 million.

Equipment buyers have their own problem. Alphabet's cloud revenue more than doubled for the quarter, yet the company's free cash flow was negative at $9.1 billion. One of the main reasons was large investments, and the company expects further growth in capital expenditures in 2027. Even with strong demand, investors have to wait longer for a return on these expenses.

Which stocks lost the most

By the close of US exchanges, basic shares #Micron and #AMD lost 17,5% and 17,3%. Next were #Marvel (−16,4%), #Dell (−15,0%), #AppliedMat (−13,6%), #Arm (-13.1%) and #NVIDIA (-9.3%). At #Micron there was also a separate reason for the decline. According to Bloomberg, the company suspended its factory project in Taiwan due to a prolonged labor dispute.

According to analysts' estimates FreshForex, in the next few sessions #NQ100 may once again drop to 26,300 points. If chip manufacturers' stocks fail to recover even part of their losses, pressure on the index will intensify, and it risks falling below this level.

Gold rose at the start of the week as oil declined amid more restrained US statements regarding Iran. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and may ease pressure from high yields on the metal. However, October US employment growth of 165k strengthened expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

US consumer price data will be released on Tuesday, and producer price data on Friday. Moderate price growth could help gold hold onto part of Monday's gains and continue its recovery if bond yields fall. An acceleration in core inflation could revive demand for the dollar and derail this scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25




The S&P 500 lost 2.7% last week, although tech stocks partially recovered on Friday. On Thursday, Applied Materials' results and outlook will help determine whether chipmakers' demand for equipment remains strong. A weak forecast could intensify doubts that AI infrastructure investments will yield the expected profits.

Actual results and estimates for companies yet to report indicate that S&P 500 earnings grew 31.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. This provides support for equities. However, strong US employment supports rate hike expectations, and expensive borrowing limits recovery potential. While the market awaits inflation data and new corporate forecasts, the risk of further declines remains higher.

Trading idea: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219




Oil starts the week lower following Donald Trump's statement that new strikes on Iran are unlikely as negotiations progress. For the market, this reduces the risk of new export disruptions. According to JPMorgan, global supply already exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, increasing downward pressure on prices as supply threat fears subside.

On Thursday, the IEA's World Oil Market Outlook and US inventory data will be released. Rising inventories would strengthen the downside scenario, while a significant drawdown could slow it. After last week's sharp drop, some de-escalation expectations are already priced in. New disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring back the risk premium.

Trading idea: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16