FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1630, remaining under pressure due to steady demand for the US dollar. The American currency is supported by tensions in the Persian Gulf, rising oil prices, and investors? cautious attitude toward risk assets. An additional factor was the US labor market data: the number of job openings in April rose to 7.6 million, indicating continued steady demand for labor.

For the euro, the situation is complicated by accelerating inflation in the eurozone. According to Eurostat?s preliminary estimate, annual consumer price growth in May rose to 3.2% after 3.0% in April. Rising energy prices increase pressure on businesses and households, while also complicating the ECB?s task. At the same time, the eurozone economy remains sensitive to expensive resources and weak external demand.

In the US, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for April rose by 3.8% year-on-year, while the core indicator increased by 3.3% year-on-year. Such dynamics reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing of Federal Reserve policy and support the dollar. If geopolitical tensions and strong US data persist, EUR/USD may continue to decline.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1540

Linkback: https://www.forex.zone/fundamental/12/freshforex-market-insights-fundamental-analysis-margin-analysis-and-forex-news/5098/

It was previously assumed that the alternative scenario was the most likely one for this asset. This scenario предполагает the formation of a more complex large corrective structure?a triple zigzag. This interpretation explains the resumption of the downward price movement that we are currently observing.

For an extended period, the price traded within a broad range while forming a simple zigzag, with a leading diagonal triangle serving as wave (a). Recently, this correction appears to have been completed, and the asset transitioned into a directional downward movement in an impulsive form.

During yesterday?s trading session, a critical level confirming the bearish scenario was also breached.

In the near future, further downside movement is expected, making short positions worth considering.

Investment idea: SELL 59500, SL 62500, TP 48000.

Long-term trend: short. The largest volume concentration of the current contract is located in the 4440.00?4490.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading below this range, which indicates seller strength.


Medium-term trend: short. The largest volume concentration within the medium-term trend is located in the 4455.00?4478.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading below this range, which also confirms seller strength.

From a margin zone perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, built from the low of 08.06.2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4323.05.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4377.25.

Intraday targets: a retest of the lows from 08.06.2026 at 4268.85.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4060.95.


Trading idea: selling from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4323.05?4377.25, Take Profit 1 4268.85, Take Profit 2 4060.95.

Since March 2026, shares of #Marvel, #Arm, #Dell, and #Amd have risen significantly as the market has regained confidence in companies driving the development of artificial intelligence. This is no longer just a trend: businesses are already showing growth in revenue, orders, and demand for data center equipment. Investors are buying these stocks as major corporations continue to invest billions of dollars in computing power.


Growth drivers:

#Marvel (+177%) ? demand for data center infrastructure. Marvell generates revenue from chips and networking solutions that help large data centers operate faster and consume less energy.
#Arm (+166%) ? focus on energy-efficient solutions. Arm?s technologies are in demand where powerful yet efficient computing is required, and its new data center chip is further boosting investor interest.
#Dell (+155%) ? explosive growth in AI servers. Dell has become one of the key suppliers of hardware used to run AI systems and has sharply raised its outlook for this segment.
#Amd (+143%) ? intensifying competition in high-performance chips. AMD is benefiting from demand for processors and accelerators used in AI, while major clients continue expanding their partnerships with the company.

Analysts at FreshForex believe that even with possible corrections, the overall growth driver remains strong: businesses need more computing power, and leading tech companies are ready to continue investing in AI infrastructure.

#Marvel, #Arm, #Dell, and #Amd remain at the center of investor attention because these companies enable AI development by producing chips, servers, and data center solutions. As long as demand for these technologies continues to grow, interest in these stocks may persist.

The yen remains in focus as USD/JPY stays close to an area that is sensitive for Japanese authorities, around 160 per dollar. The US dollar continues to receive support from the interest rate differential. However, a further rise in the pair could increase the risk of official warnings. For the market, this means that even with continued demand for the US dollar, buying the pair at these levels becomes less stable.

Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.

The fundamental environment in Japan is gradually changing. The market expects that the Bank of Japan may raise rates at its upcoming meeting in response to inflation risks, rising import costs, and yen weakness. This scenario does not remove the yield gap between the United States and Japan, but it makes this factor less one-sided. The longer USD/JPY stays elevated, the more visible the risk of a policy response becomes.

US data also does not give the dollar a clear advantage. The core part of producer inflation came in softer than expected, and the market shifted its expectations for the next Federal Reserve move to a later date. Against this backdrop, the combination of Bank of Japan expectations and the risk of action by Japanese authorities may limit further gains in USD/JPY. Under the base-case scenario, a move lower in the pair looks more cautious.

Trading idea: SELL 160.25, SL 160.55, TP 159.35

Gold starts the week with buyers retaining the advantage. A weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields after the preliminary US-Iran agreement improve conditions for XAUUSD. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16?17, where interest rate and inflation projections will be important. As expectations of a tighter policy stance ease, demand for the metal may remain steady.

A lower geopolitical premium could limit interest in gold, but the weaker dollar and lower real yields are more important for the metal at this stage. If the Federal Reserve does not strengthen its restrictive signals, buyers may keep the initiative. Therefore, the BUY idea is in line with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: BUY 4325.00, SL 4295.00, TP 4415.00



The #SP500 enters the week with support from an improving market backdrop. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and help the market approach the Federal Reserve meeting with more confidence. This is important for the index through capital costs and earnings expectations, especially after the recent pressure on the technology sector.

At the same time, renewed demand for equities remains dependent on the Federal Reserve?s comments and the reaction of US Treasury yields. If the central bank does not strengthen expectations of a rate increase and corporate forecasts do not deteriorate, the index may retain its advantage. Under this scenario, the BUY idea appears more sustainable.

Trading idea: BUY 7517, SL 7442, TP 7742

 


Brent starts the week under pressure after the geopolitical premium declined. The preliminary US-Iran agreement and expectations of renewed movement through the Strait of Hormuz reduce concerns over supply disruptions. For #BRENT, this shifts market attention toward a potential recovery in supply.

Oil is still supported by low US inventories and caution over the timing of normalised flows. However, OPEC+?s decision to raise July output targets adds pressure. If EIA data does not show another strong decline in inventories, the baseline scenario allows for continued selling.

Trading idea: SELL 83.75, SL 86.00, TP 77.00

Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time

The euro is receiving moderate support from a combination of two factors: the US dollar is losing some demand ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, while the ECB remains ready to respond to inflation risks. Even after the decline in oil prices, the energy factor has not fully disappeared for the euro area. As a result, the market is cautiously assessing the likelihood of further steps by the central bank. For EUR/USD, this creates a more stable foundation than at the beginning of the week.

Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.

At the same time, the euro?s rise does not look one-sided. The euro area economy remains sensitive to energy costs, while business activity may come under pressure if companies pass higher costs on to consumers more slowly than the market expects. However, the latest ECB signals show that inflation remains the key reference point. This limits the room for a rapid softening of expectations around the euro.

The dollar is being held back by uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Market participants are waiting not only for the rate decision, but also for guidance on the future policy path. If the central bank maintains a cautious tone without strengthening expectations of a rate increase, demand for the dollar may remain limited. In this scenario, EUR/USD retains fundamental grounds for further gains.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1610, SL 1.1580, TP 1.1700

Long-term trend: short. The largest volume cluster of the current contract is located in the 4320.00?4360.00 range. At the moment, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, which indicates seller strength.

Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.


Medium-term trend: short. The largest volume cluster of the medium-term trend is located in the 4335.00?4353.00 range. At the moment, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place below this range, which indicates seller strength.

The favourable selling area from a margin perspective is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones built from the low of 17.06.2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4271.79.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4326.29.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the lows from 17.06.2026 at 4217.79.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4056.69.


Trading idea: sell from the favourable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4271.79-4326.29, Take Profit 1-4217.79, Take Profit 2-4056.69.