FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

June data from the euro area provide a mixed but broadly supportive backdrop for the euro. The services activity index rose to 49.4 from 47.7 in May, while the composite indicator returned to growth. Inflation slowed to 2.8%, but the ECB raised interest rates in June and still has room to maintain a cautious policy stance. The improvement in business activity supports the single currency, although the weakness in the services sector has not fully disappeared.

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The main shift for EURUSD has come from a reassessment of the US economy. Employment growth in June was weaker than expected, while previous months were revised lower. This reduced the perceived likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. The US dollar came under pressure, and the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes will test whether the market maintains this revised outlook.

Slower euro-area inflation limits the euro's upside potential. However, less confident Federal Reserve expectations, the ECB?s June rate increase, and stronger composite business activity create a favourable fundamental balance for the pair. Unless new US data challenge the view of a cooling labour market, the outlook remains tilted towards further EURUSD strength.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1435, SL 1.1405, TP 1.1525

Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volume in the current contract is located between 4320.00 and 4370.00. Trading activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.


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Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volume is located between 4025.00 and 4040.00. Trading activity is currently taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

The favourable buying area, based on margin requirements, lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones calculated from the high of 6 July 2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4152.73.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4101.83.

Intraday target: a new high above the 6 July 2026 peak at 4203.73.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4366.93.


Trading idea: consider buying within the favourable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4101.83?4152.73, Take Profit 1: 4203.73, Take Profit 2: 4366.93.

The pound enters today?s session with stronger domestic support than the euro. A fresh recruitment survey showed an improvement in temporary hiring and faster starting salary growth. This matters for the Bank of England, which is closely watching wage pressure. Even with slower activity in the services sector, these signals reduce the scope for the central bank to shift toward a softer stance too quickly.

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The US dollar remains strong due to geopolitical tension and expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. This means any recovery in GBP/USD is unlikely to be one-sided. Still, the pound is receiving local support not only from the wage factor, but also from a partial easing of fiscal concerns. The market is assessing the political transition more calmly if the new team keeps budget constraints in place.

Under the baseline scenario, GBP/USD may retain an advantage if investors continue to factor in wage resilience and the Bank of England?s limited room to discuss a rate cut. Risks for the pair are linked to another strengthening of the US dollar and higher oil prices. However, fresh UK data give sterling its own supporting argument. If current conditions remain in place, the buy idea looks justified.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3355, SL 1.3325, TP 1.3445

The latest Japanese producer price data strengthened the case for the yen. The index rose by 7.1% year on year in June, compared with expectations of 6.8%. Import prices in yen terms also increased at their fastest pace since 2022. Rising cost pressures make it more likely that the Bank of Japan will return to the issue of further interest rate increases.

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The central bank has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs on to consumers more quickly. Following the June rate increase to 1%, markets are considering the possibility of another move before the end of the year. This is gradually reducing the US dollar?s advantage in interest-rate-differential trades. US Treasury yields still support the American currency, but lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve decision are weakening this factor.

Yen weakness is also increasing import costs and keeping the foreign exchange market under close scrutiny from the Japanese authorities. The risk of official action does not determine the direction on its own. However, it is now accompanied by a fresh inflation signal and a stronger basis for further Bank of Japan action. Under these conditions, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario unless the US dollar receives renewed support from US economic data.

Trading idea: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55

Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00



The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.

At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150



Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.

Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.

Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30

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The pound enters the European session on a firmer footing after softer US inflation reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. Lower US Treasury yields weakened the dollar?s advantage and supported GBP/USD. However, the move remains restrained as the market awaits further evidence that the slowdown in US price pressures was not temporary.

The UK?s domestic backdrop provides limited but noticeable support for sterling. The Bank of England Governor noted that renewed escalation in the Middle East had increased uncertainty but had not yet materially changed the UK inflation outlook. This reduces the risk of an abrupt shift in the central bank?s policy stance, although high oil prices and elevated borrowing costs remain vulnerabilities for the economy.

Political and fiscal uncertainty limits the potential for one-sided gains in the British currency. Nevertheless, during the current session, the broader dollar factor appears stronger than the pound?s domestic risks. The weaker US inflation report has already changed expectations for the Federal Reserve?s near-term policy. If producer price data does not reverse this signal, the baseline scenario supports further gains in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3405, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3480

Over the past month, #XAUUSD has shown a sharp decline and increased volatility. From June 15 to July 15, gold fell by approximately 6%, dropping from around $4,300 to $4,050 per ounce. The instrument?s further dynamics will primarily depend on Federal Reserve decisions, U.S. inflation data, and developments in the Middle East: easing inflationary pressure may support a price recovery, while rising oil prices and expectations of rate hikes could trigger a new wave of selling.



Growth Factors

• Weak U.S. labor market data. In June, the U.S. economy added only 57K jobs versus the expected 110K, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. Amid a weaker dollar, gold rose by more than 2% on July 2.
  
• Slowing consumer inflation. A weaker-than-expected June CPI report prompted market participants to revise their outlook on further Fed tightening. On July 14, XAUUSD gained more than 2%, while the dollar lost about 0.6%.
  
• Decline in U.S. producer prices. The PPI index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, marking the largest drop in 14 months. The data helped gold recover after an initial decline and eased concerns about aggressive rate hikes.

Downside Factors

• Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. After the June FOMC meeting, investors raised expectations for further rate hikes, while U.S. bond yields and the dollar surged. As early as June 17, gold reversed downward, with the decline continuing over several sessions.
• Strengthening U.S. dollar. By June 23, the dollar index reached a roughly one-year high, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The next day, XAUUSD fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.
• Rising oil prices and escalating tensions with Iran. Renewed tensions in the Middle East led to a surge in oil prices and increased concerns about accelerating inflation. As a result, traditional safe-haven demand for gold was outweighed by rate hike expectations, and on July 13 the metal dropped by around 3%.

From June 15 to the present, gold?s movement has been marked by sharp reversals, with daily price changes exceeding 2% in several sessions. Going forward, recovery may continue if the dollar weakens and rate hike expectations decline. However, rising oil prices and persistent inflation risks may again increase pressure on the metal.

According to FreshForex analysts, traders should closely monitor developments in the Middle East, U.S. economic data releases, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations can lead to strong movements in XAUUSD in both directions. Increased market activity creates additional trading opportunities, so consider trading #XAUUSD with proper risk management.