FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

For the pound, today's key signal is regarding British budget policy: the IMF does not require accelerating deficit reduction and urges maintaining the chosen course. This reduces concerns about additional demand pressure from faster fiscal tightening. However, confidence in government plans remains a necessary condition for currency stability, as expensive borrowing complicates public finances.

Yesterday, the IMF raised its forecast for UK economic growth this year to 1.3%. Megan Greene of the Bank of England considered the new estimates an argument for raising rates: in her view, current policy is insufficiently restrictive on inflation. Such a stance supports the pound, although high energy costs and elevated long-term rates could weaken consumption and investment.

The combination of local interest rate support and reduced dollar demand allows for further GBPUSD upside. US inflation remains the main risk: exceeding expectations could increase the likelihood of imminent Fed tightening and reverse the trend. Ahead of the data release, the pound's advantage appears moderate; the trade idea relies on maintaining the current overvaluation of dollar rates.

Trade idea: BUY 1.3270, SL 1.3235, TP 1.3355

The euro is supported by declining US bond yields: dollar investments become less attractive. Amid concerns over artificial intelligence spending, investors are buying US debt, but the currency itself has not yet benefited from this. For EURUSD, this creates an opportunity to continue its recovery after the recent decline.

From the Eurozone side, today's final assessment of September inflation is important. Preliminary data showed price growth accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining grounds for further ECB rate hikes. Confirmation of these figures will support euro interest rate expectations, although expensive energy simultaneously worsens the outlook for the European economy.

The main risk to pair growth is a return to dollar demand with more hawkish Fed signals. Strong US inflation leaves such an opportunity, while France's debt problems limit the attractiveness of the euro. As long as US yields are falling and immediate tightening does not receive new confirmation, the base scenario for the current session allows for moderate EURUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1215, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1270

The pound maintains support from expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate. In a survey published last week, 54 out of 63 economists forecasted a hike in November by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4%. This is an expectation, not an adopted decision. Nevertheless, it supports interest in the British currency until new data forces a revision of this scenario.

The British economy grew by 0.1% in August despite expectations of a contraction. The resilience of activity reduces concerns that an interest rate hike will immediately intensify a downturn. At the same time, declining yields on US bonds weaken the relative attractiveness of the dollar. Unlike the euro, the pound is currently not experiencing direct pressure from French political risk.

Part of the expectations has already been reflected in the recent strengthening of the pound, so the potential for further growth is limited. Budgetary uncertainty in the UK and a return of demand for the dollar could change the balance of factors. As long as US yields are falling and the prospect of British tightening remains, the fundamental basis for GBPUSD growth holds true.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3330, SL 1.3300, TP 1.3405

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00?4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below the specified range, which indicates seller strength.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4?4127.25.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2?4179.05.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.10.2026?4075.55.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3912.55.



Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4179.05-4178.00, Take Profit 1?4075.55, Take Profit 2?3912.55.

Unrest in France has become a problem for investors as well. Damaged stores, business restrictions, and political uncertainty have added reasons to sell European stocks. On October 19, the French CAC 40 lost 1,11%, while the German DAX ? 1,18%.

France is preparing for a new wave of protests. Authorities announced increased security ahead of demonstrations on October 24 following unrest that affected Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and other cities. The curfew helped restore calm, but the threat of further business disruptions remains.

On the markets, tension coexists with recovery attempts. #CAC40 is trading around 7,850.0 points, #DAX30 at 25,416.3 points, EURUSD at 1.1223. Buyers have recovered part of the losses, but French risks continue to limit interest in European assets.



Businesses will have to pay for the consequences

Damage to stores, forced closures, and recovery costs have already caused losses for companies. New protests could prolong this period: even operating retail outlets lose customers if people avoid city centers.

For the French economy with weak growth, this is an additional burden. Uncertainty can cause companies to delay investments and hiring, while the government will have to negotiate budget decisions amid public discontent.

The situation is also unfavorable for the euro. Political tension in one of the largest economies in the eurozone hinders confident capital inflow. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar supports EURUSD, and expectations of ECB decisions remain significant. Therefore, the French crisis is restraining the pair's recovery, but does not rule out short-term rallies.

Why this matters for #DAX30

France is a significant market for German manufacturers. A reduction in orders and consumer spending could affect suppliers from Germany. Moreover, political tension could reduce interest in European stocks as a whole.

However, the German market is supported by corporate earnings and external demand. A weaker euro also helps exporters. Therefore, #DAX30 may recover faster than the French index, even if the situation in France remains difficult.

Where sellers maintain an advantage

According to FreshForex analysts, the French crisis will continue to restrain the recovery of #CAC40 and the euro. For #DAX30, the main risk remains the spread of cautious sentiment to the European market.

As long as #CAC40 remains below 7 870?7 900, a retest of 7 800 with a possible further decline to 7 750. For EURUSD, failed attempts to hold above 1,1240?1,1260 will maintain the probability of a return to 1,1200, and then ? 1,1150.

For #DAX30, the nearest level is ? 25 400. A move below it will increase the likelihood of a pullback to 25 300?25 200. Holding above 25 400, on the contrary, will allow buyers to continue the recovery to 25 500.

Accelerating inflation in Japan strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The September core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year after 1.7% in August. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4% from 1.9%. This supports the yen through expectations of higher cost of money, although an immediate decision by the regulator is not predetermined.

At the same time, concerns over artificial intelligence spending have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Purchases of Treasury bonds lowered US yields, weakening one of the main arguments for the dollar against the yen. For USDJPY, the key combination is two factors: declining dollar investment yields and more compelling grounds for further Japanese policy tightening.

Against a decline in the pair are the persistent interest rate differential and the risk of renewed US yield growth due to expensive oil. At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan may take a pause, so the inflation report does not guarantee continued yen strengthening. With sustained demand for safe-haven assets, however, its fundamental advantages still allow for further USDJPY downside.

Trading idea: SELL 156.90, SL 157.25, TP 156.20

Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00?4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4160.00-4180.00 and 4120.00-4140.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below these ranges, indicating strong selling pressure.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 23.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4: 4027.22.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2: 4077.82.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 23.10.2026 ? 3976.72.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ ? 3825.72.



Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4027.22-4077.82, Take Profit 1 ? 3976.72, Take Profit 2 ? 3825.72.