FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00?4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.


Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 ? 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 ? 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 ? 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ ? 4086.71.


Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 ? 4252.21, Take Profit 2 ? 4086.71.

The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75?4.00% on September 16, gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce, even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before.

At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold?s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently ? and that is the key to understanding the current move.



Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates?

• The rate hike had already been priced in. The Fed?s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold.
• Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next. The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down.
• The oil rally has paused. Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening.
  
• Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge. If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400?4,500.

FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage of up to 1:1000.

The euro begins the session without clear support after the ECB previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The decision itself has already been largely priced in, and the regulator's recent comments indicate caution regarding further tightening, primarily due to high energy costs. For EUR/USD, this reduces the strength of the local factor in favor of the single currency.

The dollar retains stronger short-term momentum. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate range to 3.75?4.00%, and most officials expect at least one more hike by year-end. Additional support for the US currency comes from fresh statements indicating that inflation remains too high, so the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening.

The interest rate differential still favors the US, while for the eurozone, expensive energy simultaneously poses inflationary and economic risks. Despite the previous sessions' decline in EUR/USD, the dollar factor does not appear fully exhausted. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a moderate continuation of the pair's decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1485, SL 1.1515, TP 1.1410

The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75?4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00




The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550




Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.

This makes Bitcoin?s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.


Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?

• The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
  
• Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
  
• Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
  
• Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.

At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000?93,000 area.

The U.S. dollar is ending the week significantly stronger, but this move is particularly evident across the major currency pairs. On September 25, EURUSD is trading around 1.1370 ? its lowest level in two months, while GBPUSD is holding near 1.3220 ? close to a three-month low. For the euro, this is already the third consecutive week of declines, while the British pound is having its worst week in roughly four months.

The main momentum is coming from the United States. Following the Fed?s September rate hike, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of further monetary tightening, while a sell-off in U.S. government bonds has pushed long-term yields to their highest levels in more than 20 years. Against this backdrop, the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% this week, but for traders, the more important question is how this move is affecting EURUSD and GBPUSD.



Why EURUSD continues to decline:

• U.S. interest rates are becoming more attractive again. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75?4.00% and continues to signal the possibility of further tightening. The higher the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the harder it becomes for EURUSD to recover.
  
• The ECB is taking a more cautious approach. The European regulator has also raised its rate to 2.50%, but its officials are trying to contain expectations of rapid further hikes. Christine Lagarde has emphasized that rising energy prices alone are not enough to automatically justify tighter monetary policy.
  
• Even strong European data are not helping the euro for now. Eurozone business activity in September came in above expectations, yet EURUSD continued to decline. This shows that the divergence in interest-rate expectations and rising U.S. yields are currently more important to the market than individual positive European indicators.
  

As a result, EURUSD has moved closer to 1.1370. If selling pressure persists, market attention could shift toward the 1.1300 area, while a return above 1.1450 would be the first sign that the current downward move is losing momentum.

Why GBPUSD is falling even faster:

• The pound?s interest-rate advantage has narrowed. The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, while the Fed raised the upper bound of its target range to 4.00%. The yield differential is therefore providing less support for the British currency.
  
• The U.K. economy remains weak. Business activity slowed in September, while demand for workers remains under pressure. This limits the Bank of England?s ability to raise rates too quickly.
  
• High energy prices create a double challenge. They add to inflationary pressure while simultaneously reducing household real incomes and potentially slowing economic growth further.
  
• The market is already pricing in further tightening. Several future Bank of England rate hikes are partly reflected in current prices, meaning the pound needs new positive catalysts to sustain a recovery.
  

As a result, GBPUSD has fallen to around 1.3220 and is down approximately 1.25% since the beginning of the week. A move below 1.3200 could increase pressure on the pair, while a return above 1.3300?1.3350 would be the first sign of a potential recovery.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as U.S. yields remain near multi-year highs, the advantage remains with the dollar, and pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD may continue.

Gold starts the week under pressure from high US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following the September rate hike, the market is particularly sensitive to PCE inflation and employment data: strong figures can support the dollar and limit the metal's attractiveness.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand and may cap declines, but currently yield to monetary factors. With high yields and hawkish Fed expectations persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards moderate downward pressure on XAUUSD.

Trade Idea: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00



For the US market, the key factor for the week remains the cost of money. US 10-year bond yields remain near multi-year highs, and the market allows for another Fed rate hike. This makes company valuations more sensitive to PCE, employment, and business activity data.

Demand for the technology sector and steady corporate earnings expectations continue to support the index. However, expensive borrowing and the risk of renewed yield growth limit room for a broad rally. Given the current backdrop, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trade Idea: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660



Brent enters the week with an elevated geopolitical premium after a quick resolution between the US and Iran once again came into question. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and new disruptions could quickly intensify supply concerns and support oil prices.

A restraining factor has been the recovery in Middle East exports: Saudi Arabia and other producers' shipments rose noticeably in September. This limits upside potential but does not eliminate the risk of new logistical disruptions. With tensions persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards buying #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00