Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Dollar Recovery Loses Momentum: USD/CAD and USD/CHF Resume Their Declines


The US dollar has resumed its decline following a corrective recovery, as the support behind the currency proved insufficient to sustain the rebound. Selling pressure increased as long-term US Treasury yields fell amid reports that the US Treasury was prepared to expand its bond-buyback operations. Larger buybacks support the government bond market and can contribute to lower yields, reducing the dollar's interest-rate advantage and limiting its recovery.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. So far, however, this factor has not been strong enough to generate a sustained appreciation in the currency.

Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic data. Revised second-quarter GDP figures, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal income and spending data, and durable goods orders are all due to be released.

According to forecasts, US GDP growth could be revised down from 2.1% to 1.5%, while the core PCE price index is expected to show annual growth of 3.3% and a monthly increase of 0.2%. A combination of slower economic growth and persistent inflationary pressure could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leaving policymakers to balance the risk of economic weakness against the need to keep inflation under control.

Markets will also be watching comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues about how policymakers are assessing current inflation risks and signs of an economic slowdown.



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Alibaba Analysis: Uptrend Break Attempt Amid Rising AI Investment


Alibaba reported its first-quarter results on 20 August, revealing a mixed picture for investors. Revenue increased by 9%, driven by accelerating growth in its cloud computing and AI businesses, but net profit fell by nearly three-quarters as capital expenditure on AI infrastructure surged.

Management said it expects these investments to reach break-even within the next three years. Meanwhile, free cash flow turned negative as spending on computing capacity continued to rise. To finance the further development of its full-stack AI ecosystem, Alibaba also completed a new share offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this week, raising approximately $10.2 billion. Investors responded cautiously to the combination of weaker earnings and equity dilution.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dow Jones Analysis: Attempted Trend Breakout Amid Fed Rate Expectations


On 26 August, the US Commerce Department released July data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, noted that the modest upside surprise in inflation was not significant enough to shift the balance of expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

Earlier, on 19 August, minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed that policymakers remained open to further rate increases if inflationary pressures persisted, with three committee members having already voted in favour of a hike. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields remain close to multi-year highs, keeping rate expectations tilted towards the possibility of further tightening.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Alphabet: Five Months of Consolidation Reach Their Breaking Point


Alphabet just had a genuinely turbulent month, and the whiplash tells its own story. Despite beating earnings expectations with profits of $9.11 per share, roughly triple what analysts had forecast, the stock actually sold off in the days following the report, weighed down by mounting concerns over AI spending. That mood shifted decisively on Monday, when shares jumped over 5% after Morgan Stanley reassured investors, highlighting Alphabet's still-robust $53.3 billion in free cash flow over the past twelve months, even as cloud capital expenditure could exceed $1.2 trillion in 2027.

The underlying business remains genuinely strong: Google Cloud revenue surged 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion in Q2, and the company has been actively defending its position, launching more budget-friendly AI pricing to compete directly with rivals. That said, not everything has gone smoothly. Alphabet agreed to pay ?260 million to settle a UK class-action lawsuit this week, and a leadership shakeup within its AI division, including the departure of key figures, has added a layer of organizational uncertainty investors are still digesting.

The result: a company delivering genuinely impressive growth, but one whose massive AI bet keeps testing investors' patience with every headline.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/GBP: Two Weeks of Compression Reach Their Breaking Point


The euro is closing out August with genuine momentum, having climbed to $1.1697 against the dollar, its strongest level in three months, on the back of ECB hike bets that keep gaining traction. French and Spanish inflation both surprised to the upside, with Spain's harmonised reading hitting 4.5%, its highest since 2023, reinforcing market expectations that the ECB deposit rate could climb to 2.80% by next March, from 2.25% currently. A September hike is now seen as roughly 60% likely.

Sterling, meanwhile, is navigating a genuinely awkward domestic backdrop. The Bank of England's July decision, a 6?3 hold with three members pushing for a hike, initially read as hawkish, but Governor Bailey used his press conference to firmly close the door on near-term hike bets anyway. UK inflation eased to 2.9%, yet the labour market cooled more sharply than expected, with private-sector wage growth hitting its softest pace since 2020, leaving the BoE genuinely torn between growth resilience and a weakening jobs picture.

The result: an ECB gaining real conviction towards further tightening, versus a Bank of England sending increasingly mixed signals just as political uncertainty around Downing Street's succession continues to simmer in the background.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Rally Meets Reality as Fed Hike Odds Surge


Gold has hit a wall this week, sliding to two-week lows near $4,320 and posting an 8.7% drop from last week's three-month highs near $4,700. The catalyst is unmistakable: Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, warning the Fed still has "work to do" without clearer evidence inflation is returning to target, sent September hike odds surging from roughly 36% before his speech to over 66% today. Rising Treasury yields and renewed Middle East tensions, following fresh US strikes and Iranian retaliation against the UAE and Jordan, have only added to the pressure.

Despite this sharp pullback, the broader picture remains genuinely constructive: gold still gained around 10% in August alone after the US Treasury's surprise move to double its long-dated bond buyback programme reignited fears over fiscal credibility, the so-called debasement trade that has underpinned much of this year's rally.

All eyes now turn to Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week's decisive catalyst. A weak print could quickly reverse this hawkish repricing and revive gold's momentum, while a strong one would likely deepen the current correction heading into the Fed's September 15?16 meeting.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Analysis: Downtrend Breakout Still Lacks Confirmation


Today, 4 September, the market?s main focus is the August US employment report. According to CNBC, the consensus forecast calls for just 53,000 nonfarm jobs to be added following July?s decline, highlighting the continued weakness of the labour market. At the same time, the Federal Reserve?s focus is shifting towards inflation risks. In the eurozone, a Reuters poll showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 10 September meeting, while around 91% expect the rate to remain at that level through the end of the year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: ECB Interest Rate, US Inflation, and UK GDP


Three key economic events could shape market sentiment in the second week of September: the ECB interest rate decision, the latest UK GDP data and US inflation figures.

In this video, Gary Thomson looks at what these releases could mean for monetary policy expectations and major currency, gold and equity markets.

Key topics covered:

ECB Interest Rate Decision ? 10 September ? Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike after Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3%. With the move largely expected, the ECB?s guidance on future policy could be more important for the euro.

UK GDP ? 11 September ? The UK economy grew by 0.4% in Q2, while June GDP expanded by 0.3%. Could the latest data confirm the resilience of the UK economy or point to a loss of momentum?

US Inflation ? 11 September ? US annual inflation slowed to 3.4% in July, while core inflation eased to 2.5%. The latest figures could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve?s next policy move and trigger volatility across USD pairs, gold and equity indices.

With both the ECB and Federal Reserve facing important monetary policy decisions, traders will be watching closely for any signals that could change expectations for future interest rates.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.