Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/CAD: Two Hawkish Central Banks, One Triangle Left to Break


The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent reaffirmed that tighter policy is working as intended, with markets now pricing roughly a 70% chance of one final hike to 4.60% by early next year, even as inflation eased below forecasts last quarter. That combination of commodity strength, gold, iron ore and LNG all running above forecast, and a still-hawkish central bank has kept AUD broadly supported near multi-week highs, with all eyes now on Thursday's July employment report.

The loonie tells an even stronger story. Canada's economy expanded at a blistering 3.4% annualised pace in Q2, well above the Bank of Canada's own 2.5% forecast, while July employment surged by 75,100 jobs against expectations of just 15,000, pulling unemployment down to a two-year low of 6.4%. That combination of surprising growth and labour market strength has fuelled speculation the BoC could hike if elevated energy prices persist, giving CAD real independent momentum of its own.

The result: two resource-linked currencies both riding genuinely hawkish narratives, leaving AUD/CAD's next move to hinge on which central bank blinks first.



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Euro and Pound Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMC Minutes


The euro and British pound are trading cautiously against the US dollar as markets await the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve?s latest meeting. At its July meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data.

Investors will pay particular attention to how FOMC members assessed inflation risks, labour-market conditions and the outlook for interest rates. Following softer inflation data and signs of a cooling labour market, a more dovish tone in the minutes could strengthen expectations of monetary easing and weigh on the dollar. Conversely, a continued emphasis on inflation risks and a restrictive policy stance could provide additional support for the US currency.

For sterling, today?s UK inflation figures will provide an additional catalyst. The data will be closely assessed for clues about the Bank of England?s next policy steps. Persistent price pressures could reduce the scope for further monetary easing and support the pound, while a more pronounced slowdown in inflation could reinforce expectations of lower interest rates.

With few major domestic catalysts for the euro, EUR/USD is likely to remain particularly sensitive to movements in the US dollar. As a result, the FOMC minutes could become a key driver of the pair?s next move.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dollar Under Pressure as Treasury Yields Fall: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Await Fresh Data


The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department?s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort to support market liquidity. Against this backdrop, the 30-year Treasury yield fell by around 9 basis points to 5.19%.

The decline in yields has weakened one of the key sources of support for the dollar and has been particularly significant for USD/JPY, which remains highly sensitive to movements in the US bond market.

The recently released FOMC minutes provided a counterweight. The minutes revealed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks, with several officials favouring a rate hike as early as the July meeting. This kept the overall tone relatively hawkish. Although policymakers were divided over whether an immediate rate increase was necessary, inflation risks remain a central concern for the Federal Reserve, while future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data.

Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic figures. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 24.1 from 41.4, while initial jobless claims are forecast at 210,000. Weaker-than-expected figures could put additional pressure on the dollar, whereas resilient data may allow the currency to recover some of its recent losses.

For the Canadian dollar, commodity-price data will provide an additional catalyst. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected to decline by 1.8% following a 6.9% drop in the previous month, making the actual reading potentially important for the further direction of USD/CAD.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XAG/USD Analysis: Triangle Breakout Attempt Amid US Treasury Buybacks


On 19 August, the US Treasury announced that it would double the volume of long-term government bond buybacks. The measure led to a noticeable decline in yields at the longer end of the curve and forms part of the Treasury?s broader efforts to contain pressure on long-term borrowing costs. These efforts include market interventions and calls for the Federal Reserve to expand the limits of the FIMA repo facility.

Lower Treasury yields improve the relative appeal of precious metals, which do not generate interest income, providing direct support for silver. Industrial demand is another important factor. Chinese imports of silver-containing ores rose 62.5% year-on-year in June amid expanding production of solar panels and power-grid equipment.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

September's Central Bank Divide: Where Could FX Divergence Emerge?


In this video, Gary Thomson explores the key September central bank meetings and whether policy divergence could impact major FX pairs.

Key topics covered:

ECB Decision ? 10 September ? Markets are pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Will the ECB signal that further tightening is still possible?

Fed Decision ? 16 September ? Although markets lean towards a hold, renewed inflation pressure could bring a hike back into focus.

BoE Decision ? 17 September ? UK inflation remains elevated, but slowing wage growth and a softer labour market could keep the Bank Rate unchanged.

BoJ Decision ? 18 September ? Markets are increasingly considering a 25-basis-point hike. Could tighter Japanese policy provide lasting support for the yen?

FX Divergence in Focus ? EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY could all react as markets reassess the expected paths of interest rates.

With four major central bank decisions in just eight days, it may be the changes in expectations ? not only the decisions themselves ? that drive the FX moves.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Analysis: Is the Dollar Rally Really Over?


EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.

The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar's decline.

In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB's 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.

With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nvidia Earnings: Beating Isn't Enough ? The Chart Wants More


All eyes turn to Wednesday, when Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 2027 earnings in what may be the single most consequential release of the quarter for the entire tech sector. Wall Street expects revenue of between $93?95 billion, implying year-over-year growth of as much as 67?100%, driven largely by demand for the company's Blackwell architecture and the early ramp-up of its next-generation Vera Rubin chips. With Nvidia commanding an estimated 80?81% share of the AI accelerator market, the report functions less like a single-company event and more like a health check for the entire AI infrastructure trade, historically moving shares of AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell in sympathy.

The stakes are amplified by timing: earnings land squarely alongside the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks could reshape rate expectations just as investors digest Nvidia's guidance. That combination matters because Nvidia's premium valuation, trading well above the broader semiconductor sector on a forward basis, leaves the stock unusually sensitive to shifts in the discount rate.

With shares up nearly 18% year-to-date but price targets still implying meaningful upside, the market has already priced in near-perfection. The real question isn't whether Nvidia beats, but whether beating is enough.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.