Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signaling Downside Correction


AUD/USD gained momentum above the 0.7400 level before it faced sellers near 0.7445. NZD/USD is also correcting gains and it could test the 0.7020 support.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path above the 0.7350 and 0.7400 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD surged above 0.6950 and 0.7000, and even traded close to 0.7120.
• A major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Aussie Dollar saw a steady increase above the 0.7320 pivot against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7400 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The upward move gained pace above 0.7400 and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.


It traded to a new monthly high at 0.7449 and recently started a downside correction. There was a break below the 0.7430 level. It is testing a key support zone near 0.7425, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high.

If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7425, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7400 support. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 0.7405 level to act as a support.

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high is at 0.7400. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.7350 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7440 level.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7450 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7500 level.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, there was a major increase in the New Zealand Dollar above the 0.6950 resistance level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7000 resistance zone.

The pair climbed above the 0.7050 level and spiked above the 0.7100 level. A high is formed near 0.7104 and it is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the 0.7080 support level, and the pair broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high.

The pair is now trading below the 0.7070 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high.


There is also a major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. If there is a downside break below the channel support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7040 and 0.7020 support levels.

Conversely, the pair could stay above the channel support and start a fresh increase above 0.7065. The first major resistance is near the 0.7080 level, above which the pair could make another attempt to settle above the 0.7100 level.




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All Eyes on Euro and the ECB This Week


Following the weak NFP report in the United States last Friday, the market moves to the key event of the week ahead – the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The central bank already pre-committed to act in December, and most of the impact may already be priced in the market. However, it can still surprise the market, especially if we consider the strong Euro across the board.


Strong Euro Remains a Headache for the ECB

The EURUSD exchange rate reached 1.2175 ahead of the NFP report last Friday. By the time that it first reached 1.20 in the summer, the ECB verbally intervened, suggesting that the exchange rate level is too high. From that moment on, the EURUSD consolidated below 1.20, but the level eventually gave way.

At this point, the Euro rallies across the FX dashboard. Not only the EURUSD rate is higher, but the EURJPY or EURGBP too. This makes this week’s ECB decision even more interesting, as if it is to surprise markets, it may do so by delivering an ultra-dovish statement.

What Will the ECB Do?

The ECB already hinted that it would not lower the interest rate on the deposit facility more into the negative territory. It also vowed to ease more the financial conditions since most European economies are in some kind of lockdown mode.

While the decisions may already be priced in, the ECB may still surprise markets. One way of doing so is to extend the duration of policy support much more into the future than the market expects.

The ECB might also extend the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by June 2022. While the extension is expected by the market participants, the focus will be on the actual size of the package – the higher the number, the stronger the impact on the Euro.

Finally, the ECB will likely use this press conference to deliver its concerns about the high exchange rate. If the central bank manages to surprise the markets, then the EURUSD should ease to 1.20 and below. On the other hand, any statement interpreted as less dovish should trigger a further rally in the EURUSD, especially considering that next week the Fed in the United States is expected to ease the policy too.

All in all, expect a lot of volatility on the Euro pairs this week, considering the ECB and the ongoing Brexit negotiations. Finally, the end of the year flows should have an impact on the exchange rate too.

EUR/USD Is Showing Bullish Signs, USD/JPY Could Resume Decline


EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2000 and 1.2080 resistance levels. USD/JPY is currently recovering, but it might decline again if it fails to clear 104.30.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 and 1.2100 levels.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY is correcting higher and trading above the 104.00 support level.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many hurdles near 1.2050 and 1.2080 to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.2177 on FXOpen before starting a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2100 level, but the pair remained well bid near the 1.2080 zone.


The recent low was formed near 1.2095 and the pair is currently rising. There was a break above the 1.2110 resistance levels. The pair also climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low.

There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently attempting upside above 1.2120.

The next key resistance is near the 1.2130 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low. A clear break above 1.2125 and 1.2130 could open the doors for more gains. The next major resistance is near the 1.2170 and 1.2180 levels.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2100 support. The main support is near the 1.2080 zone, below which the EUR/USD pair could slide towards the 1.2025 and 1.2000 support levels in the near term.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar faced a strong resistance near the 104.30 and it started a fresh decline against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair broke the 104.00 support level, but dips were limited.

A low was formed near 103.92 and the pair started a decent recovery wave. There was a break above the 104.05 and 104.10 levels. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low.


The pair is now trading above the 104.10 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. An initial resistance is near the 104.16 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low.

The first major resistance is near the 104.30 level. A clear break above the 104.30 zone is needed to start a steady rise towards the 104.55 and 104.80 levels.

On the downside, the 104.00 level is a strong support. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could dive towards the 103.80 level.

Any further losses may lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 103.50 support zone. The next major support is near the 103.00 level.

Gold Price Showing Bearish Signs While Oil Price Outperforms

Gold price failed to surpass the $1,875 resistance and started a fresh decline. Conversely, crude oil price traded to new multi-month high close to $48.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh decline below the $1,870 and $1,850 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price surged above the $46.75 resistance and traded as high as $47.82.
• There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,800 support zone against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,840 and $1,850 resistance levels to gain bullish momentum.

However, the price struggled to clear the $1,875 resistance. A high was formed near $1,875 on FXOpen and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear break below the $1,855 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.


The price even broke the $1,840 level and traded close to $1,825. The price is currently consolidating above $1,825. The recent swing high was near $1,849 before the price declined to $1,829.

It is currently trading above the $1,832 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low. On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $1,840 level.

Moreover, there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold. The triangle resistance is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low.

A successful close above the triangle resistance, $1,840, and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level.

Conversely, the price could continue to move down below the $1,830 and $1,828 levels. The next major support is near $1,810, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline towards $1,780. Any further losses could lead the price towards the $1,750 support zone.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price remained well bid above the $44.00 and $45.00 levels against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $45.50 to move further into a positive zone.

The bulls remained in action and there was a clear break above the $46.75 resistance. During the rise, there was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


The price even broke the $47.20 resistance and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded close to the $47.85 level and a high is formed near $47.82.

Recently, there was a downside correction below the $47.50 level. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the downside, the previous resistance near $46.75 is acting as a strong support. The next major support is near the $46.50 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $47.25 level. A close above $47.25 might set the pace for a fresh leg higher towards the $48.00 level.

ECB Disappointed Markets – Why?


Last week’s main event, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, disappointed the market. The central bank pre-committed to ease the financial conditions already from October, but the markets remained with the feeling that the ECB did not do enough.

Yes, the central bank further eased the policy – it extended the Quantitative Easing (QE) program and offered better terms on its TLTROs. However, it was less than the market expected. Moreover, the market pushed the EURUSD exchange rate above the 1.20 level a week before the ECB, and the central bank did not give any clue that it is bothered by the move.


What Was Priced In?

The market expected the PEPP program, which basically is the QE program during the pandemic, to be extended by June 2022. Instead, the ECB extended it only by March 2022. The three months between the two dates when the ECB will not buy bonds represent a tightening rather than easing. As such, the market took the message as hawkish rather than dovish.

Moreover, the new TLTRO conditions for commercial banks to get access to the funds are tougher. In other words, few commercial banks will be able to meet the ECB’s terms so that they will get the funds needed. As a result, the ECB managed to deliver another hawkish message during a dovish statement.

Finally, the central bank suggested that it expects inflation to reach 1.2% in 2023, using the “core” approach, the one that does not consider energy prices. But that is well below the 2% threshold established by its mandate and may suggest that the ECB has a problem bringing inflation below but close to the target.

How About the EURUSD?

The EURUSD and a strong Euro represent such a problem. It is economics 101 that a stronger currency weighs on inflation. Thus, the ECB would have an easier task of reaching its inflation-targeting mandate if the Euro will not be that strong. In particular, the EURUSD is an ongoing concern for the ECB.

However, by only delivering more easing measures wrapped in hawkish statements, the ECB does nothing but fueling a stronger EUR. As such, we should not be surprised by the fact that the EURUSD rate at the 2020 highs two days after the ECB press conference ended.

EUR/USD Approaching Key Resistance, USD/CHF Remains At Risk


EUR/USD is trading in a positive zone above 1.2100, but it is facing hurdles near 1.2170. USD/CHF is struggling to hold the 0.8850 support and it could decline heavily.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.2050 and 1.2100 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF remains in a bearish zone below the 0.8950 and 0.8920 resistance levels.
• There are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Euro remained in a positive zone above the 1.2050 support zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.2100 resistance to move into a positive zone.

The upward move was such that the pair broke the 1.2120 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.2165 and 1.2170 levels.


The recent high was formed near 1.2168 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2155 level, and the pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high.

The decline found support near the 1.2145 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high is also acting as a support.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair could gain bullish momentum once it clears the 1.2165 and 1.2170 resistance levels.

Conversely, there is a risk of a downside break below the trend line and 1.2145. The next major support is near the 1.2120 level. Any more losses could spark a major decline below the 1.2100 support zone in the coming sessions.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a major decline below the 0.8950 support zone against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair even settled below the 0.8900 level to move into a bearish zone.

The decline gained pace below the 0.8880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now consolidating above the 0.8850 support level, with a bearish angle. The recent low was formed near 0.8850 before the pair corrected above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low.


On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 0.8865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low is also near 0.8865.

More importantly, there are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart. The pair must climb above 0.8865 and 0.8870 to increase the chances of a decent recovery.

The next major resistance is near the 0.9000 and 0.9005 levels. Conversely, a clear break below the 0.8850 support may perhaps open the doors for a larger decline.

The next major support is near the 0.8820 level, below which the pair could test 0.8800. Any further losses could lead USD/CHF towards the 0.8750 support level in the near term.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set New Multi-Month Highs, Dips Likely Limited


AUD/USD extended its rise above 0.7500 and traded to a new multi-month high above 0.7600. NZD/USD also followed a similar path and climbed towards the 0.7200 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.7500 and 0.7550 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD climbed higher nicely and surpassed the 0.7150 resistance level.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few weeks, the Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path after a proper close above 0.7350 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7500 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

The upward move gained pace above the 0.7550r resistance and the pair settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even spiked above the 0.7600 level and it traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7639.


Recently, there was a minor downside correction below the 0.7620 level. The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high.

The pair is now testing the 0.7600 support level. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is near the 0.7600 zone and acting as a strong support.

The next major support is near the 0.7590 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high is also near the 0.7590 level to provide support.

If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7575-0.7580, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7550 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7620 resistance zone.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7640 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7680 level.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar also followed a bullish path above the 0.7000 pivot level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7100 resistance zone.

The pair climbed above the 0.7150 level and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7170 before starting a downside correction.


There was a break below the 0.7150 level. The pair even broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high.  The pair is now approaching the key 0.7120 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high.

If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7080 and 0.7050 support levels. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7150 and 0.7160 resistance levels.

Financial Markets at Risk as the Virus Locks Europe Down


The markets opened with a bearish tone as there is a new turn of events on the pandemic course. Over the weekend, the news that a new virus’ variant circulates in the United Kingdom caused panic in Europe. According to the UK authorities, the new variant spreads faster, and that poses a risk for the period ahead.

Quickly after the announcement, several European countries suspended their flights to the United Kingdom, in a move that signals the harsh lockdown in place in Europe. As such, the market is at risk of declining due to the lack of liquidity characteristic this time of the year.


The Fed Remains Dovish

Last week’s main event was the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Fed chooses to do nothing at this meeting, but it kept a dovish tone.

During the press conference, the Fed’s Chair Powell said that the central bank reopened the USD swap lines and that it will keep the Quantitative Easing (QE) program at the same pace of $120 billion. Much of the focus of last week’s meeting was to see if the Fed hints at changing the focus of the bond-buying. So far, the focus was on shorter-term maturities, but rumors in the market suggested that the Fed may switch to longer-term maturities.

By targeting longer-term bonds, the Fed aims at lowering the yields further, in a move destined to ease financial conditions even more. However, it did not do so, but it hinted that it represents a tool it may use in the future.

Risk-Off Market Moves

Moving forward, there is the danger of a risk-off move that could grip markets this week. In a risk-off, the USD rises, and the stock market falls. Risk-off market moves are coordinated and have the tendency to affect all markets in a correlated manner. In other words, it does not matter what market one is trading, as they are all affected.

Because the USD is the world’s reserve currency, how it trades this week is key to risk. As such, expect a more volatile trading week than otherwise.