Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Amazon Earnings: Does the Chart Already Know Something the Numbers Don't?


All eyes are on July 30, when Amazon reports Q2 2026 earnings, with Wall Street increasingly convinced the bar has been set too low. Consensus sees EPS near $1.82-$2.26 on roughly $197 billion in revenue, but the real story is AWS: after posting its fastest growth in 15 quarters at 28% in Q1, several major banks?including Bank of America?now expect acceleration toward 32-33%, fueled by surging AI demand and Bedrock workloads tied to Anthropic and OpenAI.

That optimism comes with a catch. Amazon's $200 billion AI capex plan has already squeezed free cash flow to just $1.2 billion, and investors will be watching closely for any further guidance hike, following similar moves from Alphabet. Options markets are pricing a 6.3% swing on earnings day, above the stock's typical 5.4% post-earnings move, signaling traders expect this report to matter more than usual.

With shares up roughly 18% year-to-date and trading at a below-average forward multiple, the setup favors strength?but only if AWS growth and margin guidance clear an already demanding bar.



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EUR/USD: All Eyes on the Fed as the Range Reaches Its Breaking Point


The dollar's next move hinges on tonight's Fed decision, and this time markets genuinely don't know what to expect. While economists still lean toward a hold?with CME FedWatch odds sitting near 68.5% for no change?Kevin Warsh's hawkish rhetoric on having "no tolerance" for inflation, paired with growing internal FOMC support for a hike, has pushed hike odds up sharply from just 18% two weeks ago to over 30% today. Complicating things further, Warsh has deliberately scaled back forward guidance, meaning tonight's press conference may offer fewer clues than usual.

The euro, meanwhile, has already had its say: the ECB held rates steady at 2.25% last Thursday, as expected, with Lagarde reaffirming the 2% target while flagging that energy-driven inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully play out. Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, but sticky services inflation near 3.5?4% keeps the door only cautiously open for a September move in either direction.

With EUR/USD trading near 1.1408, tonight's Fed decision?not the ECB?is what will likely determine the pair's next major direction.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Await Key Bank of England Decision


The pound strengthened following the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed did not provide the market with clear signals of an imminent shift towards rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Despite the Fed?s cautious tone, the dollar failed to gain fresh momentum, allowing the British currency to partially recover its recent losses.

Market attention is now almost entirely focused on the Bank of England meeting, as its decision is expected to be the main driver for sterling through the end of the week. Investors also do not expect a change in interest rates, but the key factors will be the Monetary Policy Committee?s vote split, the accompanying statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Any signals regarding the timing of potential monetary policy easing could trigger notable volatility in the pound.

For the euro, today will also bring a number of important macroeconomic releases. Markets will focus on preliminary inflation and GDP data from Germany, as well as GDP and inflation figures from Spain. These reports will help investors assess the resilience of the eurozone economy and adjust expectations regarding the European Central Bank?s future actions. Stronger data could support the euro, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nasdaq 100: 48 Hours of Chaos, One Trendline Standing in the Way


Wall Street just lived through one of its wildest 48 hours of the year. On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three FOMC members broke ranks to demand a hike?an unusually hawkish dissent that sent the Dow plunging over 1,100 points, its worst session since April 2025. Treasury yields spiked, with the 30-year touching levels unseen since 2007, as renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil higher and reignited inflation fears. The Nasdaq 100 briefly slid into correction territory, down 11% from its June record high.

Then came the reversal. Thursday's blockbuster earnings from Microsoft, whose Azure cloud business surged, alongside a rebound in beaten-down semiconductor stocks, powered the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech Mini on FXOpen) to a 2.8% gain, snapping a six-day losing streak.

The whiplash captures the market's core dilemma perfectly: a Fed chair in Kevin Warsh determined to prove his inflation-fighting credentials, a Middle East conflict refusing to fade, and a tech sector whose AI-driven earnings power may be the only thing strong enough to override both.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Analysis: Is the Correction Over, or Just Catching Its Breath?


Gold has had a rough year. After hitting an all-time high near $5,602 in January, the metal has since dropped roughly 27% from that peak, weighed down by rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and cooling demand for safe-haven assets.

This week brought a fresh twist. Gold climbed back above $4,050 on Monday after President Trump signaled that peace talks with Iran would resume, following pressure from regional allies like Saudi Arabia to pause military strikes. The news pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation fears, but it also reduced some of the safe-haven demand that had been supporting gold.

Despite the sharp correction, most analysts still expect gold's long-term uptrend to eventually reassert itself. In the near term, though, all eyes are on Friday's US jobs report, the week's key catalyst: a weak print could revive rate-cut expectations and give gold fresh support, while a strong one could extend the current pullback.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD: The Triangle That Could Define the Rest of 2026


The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government's pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected?policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.

The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed's decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.

With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD's next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook


The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.