Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

3 EVENTS IN FOCUS | 10-14 AUGUST


In this video, we?ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let?s dive in!

Key topics:

US Inflation Rate
The first major event is the US inflation report on 12 August. Markets currently see a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, but a weaker-than-expected inflation reading could reduce those expectations and put pressure on the US dollar. June?s softer inflation data already triggered a sharp dollar decline, while some analysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for now and consider cuts next year.

UK GDP Data
The UK GDP report on 13 August will be closely watched by sterling traders. Markets will focus on monthly, quarterly and annual growth figures. A significant surprise in the data could increase volatility across GBP pairs, with weaker growth potentially weighing on the pound.

US PPI
The US Producer Price Index, also released on 13 August, will provide further insight into inflation pressures before they reach consumers. June?s weaker-than-expected PPI and Core PPI readings pushed the dollar lower, and another soft report could strengthen expectations of easing inflation and add further pressure on the US currency.

With several high-impact releases packed into the week, disciplined risk management will remain essential. Geopolitical developments continue to influence commodity and currency markets, while economic data could generate sharp short-term price swings.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY: Was Intervention Enough to Change the Trend?


USD/JPY finds itself at the center of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ?164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ?155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ?158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.

The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed's own July dissents?three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold?keep US rates firmly in the driver's seat too.

With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY's next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo's rate decision, or Washington's next data-driven signal.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Await a Fresh Impulse from Inflation Data


The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve?s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.

Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today's session.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Natural Gas Analysis: Attempted Wedge Breakout Amid Lower EIA Forecast


On 11 August, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for the average natural gas price in the third quarter to $2.87 per million BTU ? 50 cents below its previous estimate. The main reason is increased domestic production and inventories, which could create the largest stockpile in a decade ahead of the start of the heating season. Planned maintenance at the Freeport LNG export terminal may have added further pressure to the balance by reducing demand for gas used in liquefaction. Meanwhile, global LNG trade had already faced shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in July, highlighting the market?s continued sensitivity to geopolitical risks.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/GBP Analysis: Triangle Breakout Attempt Following an Uptrend


On 13 August, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was relatively muted.

The interest-rate backdrop has also remained broadly unchanged for several weeks. On 30 July, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, while the ECB left its rate at 2.25% on 23 July. With both decisions largely priced into the market, the absence of fresh guidance from either central bank means that short-term EUR/GBP price action may be driven more by technical factors than by the latest macroeconomic data.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Why Has the Yen Weakened After Intervention?


In this video, Gary Thomson explores why the Japanese yen has weakened again after briefly recovering following US-Japan currency intervention, with USD/JPY back above 159.

Key topics covered:

Why the Yen Recovery Faded ? The wide US-Japan rate gap continues to weigh on the yen and support carry trades.

Geopolitics and Oil ? Middle East tensions and higher oil prices are adding pressure on Japan while supporting the dollar.

Investment Flows ? Strong US investment, particularly in AI, continues to attract capital away from Japan.

BoJ Rate Hike Expectations ? Markets are increasingly pricing in a potential September rate hike, but could one move be enough to reverse the yen?s trend?

Potential Intervention ? With USD/JPY above 159, traders are watching for further action from the BoJ and Japanese authorities.

Interest-rate differentials, capital flows, geopolitical risks and intervention continue to drive the USD/JPY pair.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Analysis: Profit-Taking After the Rally


Gold continues to trade close to multi-month highs following its recent advance, which was supported by the latest US inflation data. July?s CPI broadly matched market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Lower expectations for further monetary tightening remain supportive for gold, as elevated interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. According to CNBC, some investors have begun taking profits after the rally. Over the coming weeks, expectations surrounding the Fed?s interest-rate path are likely to remain one of the main drivers of the precious metal.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.