Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/CAD: Months of Indecision ? Is a Breakout Finally Coming?


The Australian dollar has clawed back most of its end-of-June losses, when it touched three-month lows against the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Since then, sentiment has improved: the RBA's Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter signalled the board stands ready to tighten further if the recent oil shock feeds into inflation expectations. Still, resilient business surveys and a modest improvement in consumer confidence point to an economy holding up better than feared.

The Bank of Canada told a similarly nuanced story this week. Policymakers held the overnight rate steady at 2.25% and struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the domestic economy, upgrading medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, officials were careful to flag that instability in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on the broader outlook, keeping the door open to both risks and opportunities depending on how the conflict evolves.

The result: two central banks watching the same geopolitical flashpoint, each balancing early signs of domestic resilience against a risk backdrop neither can fully control.



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Nasdaq 100: Is This the Correction Traders Have Been Waiting For?


The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) remains caught between two opposing forces: cooling inflation on one side, and persistent geopolitical instability on the other. On 14 July, June's CPI print came in softer than expected, easing near-term Fed tightening bets and triggering a broad rebound across tech stocks, particularly semiconductors, which had been under heavy pressure.

That relief, however, has been repeatedly tested by renewed US-Iran hostilities, which pushed oil prices higher and lifted US Treasury yields, weighing on rate-sensitive growth names throughout the week. Every attempt at recovery has coincided with a brief easing of tensions, only for fresh escalations to reintroduce volatility days later.

Beneath the surface, semiconductors remain the index's clearest fault line: even as broader sentiment improves, doubts over the sustainability of AI-driven valuations continue to trigger selective selling in the sector. Meanwhile, SpaceX's addition to the index on 8 July has added a steady stream of passive buying, while the start of earnings season has kept investors' attention split between fundamentals and geopolitics.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/CHF: Trendline or RSI ? Which One Is Lying?


Sterling enters this week on firmer footing, with political uncertainty fading fast after Andy Burnham's confirmation as Labour leader eased investor concerns over the succession to Keir Starmer. Markets reacted further to reports pointing to Shabana Mahmood as the frontrunner for Chancellor, viewed as the more fiscally disciplined choice. On the policy front, the Bank of England remains firmly in tightening mode, with markets fully pricing a rate hike by year-end, reinforced by renewed Middle East tensions pushing oil to one-month highs and stoking fresh inflation risks.

The Swiss franc, meanwhile, continues to play its familiar dual role. Domestically, the picture argues for weakness?the SNB holds its policy rate at zero, inflation sits near zero, and growth remains subdued after Bern trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast due to elevated US tariffs. Yet globally, the franc keeps drawing so-called safe-haven demand from the same conflict fueling GBP's hawkish repricing, with the SNB explicitly flagging renewed willingness to intervene against excessive appreciation.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD Analysis: A Tug-of-War at the Critical Level


The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January's peak near 0.6075.

New Zealand's Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ's own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank's surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July?its first in over three years.

The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June's payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed's near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD's next move hostage to next week's Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Pound Weakens After Soft UK Inflation Data as Euro Awaits Fresh Market Signals


The pound remains under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data. The slowdown in inflation has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England could adopt a more accommodative policy stance in the coming months, weighing on sterling. Meanwhile, the euro continues to trade within a relatively narrow range as investors await fresh signals from the eurozone economy.

Market participants also remain cautious due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The United States continues to carry out strikes on targets in Iran, supporting demand for traditional refuge assets, including the US dollar, and limiting the recovery potential of European currencies.

Attention in the coming days will focus on the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, which will provide an early assessment of economic conditions at the start of the third quarter. The data are particularly important for the euro, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank's next policy moves. Stronger-than-expected figures may support the single currency, while weaker readings could reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing. In addition, the weekly US initial jobless claims report will provide another update on the health of the US labour market.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Intel at a Crossroads: Earnings Beat Meets Technical Resistance


Intel has just delivered its strongest quarter in over fifteen years, and the market reaction says it all. Q2 2026 revenue surged 25% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, crushing the consensus estimate of $14.42 billion, while adjusted EPS of $0.42 nearly doubled the expected $0.21. The stock rallied over 12% in after-hours trading following the release.

The engine behind the beat was unmistakably AI: Intel's Data Center and AI segment jumped 59% year-over-year to $6.3 billion, with the company saying demand is now outpacing what its factories can supply. CEO Lip-Bu Tan pointed to faster production cycles and improved yields as key drivers behind the upside, while CFO Dave Zinsner said the company exceeded its guidance thanks to stronger execution.

There was a notable asterisk, however: Intel posted a GAAP net loss of $11 billion, driven by a $12.5 billion mark-to-market charge tied to its CHIPS Act agreement?a technical, non-operational hit that markets largely looked past. Looking ahead, Intel raised its Q3 guidance to a $16.3 billion midpoint, reinforcing confidence that this AI-driven turnaround has real momentum behind it.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD: Inflation Surge Meets Strong US Dollar Pressure


On 21 July, Stats NZ reported an acceleration in inflation: the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in the second quarter, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.1%, its highest level in more than two years and slightly above analysts' consensus forecast of 4.0%. The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices amid tensions in the Middle East. The data was released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening in September. However, the impact proved short-lived, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, causing the New Zealand dollar to surrender part of its recent gains during the second half of the week.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.