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Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com

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General analysis USDJPY for 16.08.2022
Current DynamicsJapan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Consumption in Japan, which accounts for more than half of the country's GDP, grew on 1.1%, exports increased on 0.9% and imports increased on 0.7%. Builder confidence in the U.S. housing market fell harder than expected in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Citizens of border areas in California started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products.GDP in Japan rose for the third quarter in a row. According to data released Aug. 15 by the country's Cabinet, Japan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Personal consumption, on which more than half of GDP accounts, increased on 1.1%.More people started going to restaurants and traveling after covid restrictions were removed in Japan. Capital spending increased on 1.4%. It is worth noting that in the previous quarter the same figure showed a decline from 0.3%.At the same time public investment in Japan also increased on 0.9% in real terms. In the previous quarter there was a decrease by 3.2%. Exports increased on 0.9%, and imports - on 0.7%.Even though Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2%, which is worse than economists' expectations for 2.7%, Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa, who is in charge of economic recovery, said that Japan's economy is gradually recovering.Meanwhile in the U.S., builder confidence in the housing market fell in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. High inflation and rising borrowing costs have affected the downturn. The Wells Fargo index of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in the United States, which measures the dynamics of the single-family housing market, fell for the eighth straight month and dropped to 49, which is the worst reading for the housing market since the financial crisis of 2008.Along with that, residents of California's border areas have started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products. For example, gasoline in Mexico for $1.24 cheaper than in California; milk is twice cheaper. Sellers and supermarkets in Tijuana are seeing a 20-30% increase of U.S. shoppers.Against the backdrop of declining GDP in the U.S. for the second quarter in a row, Japan's economy looks much better off. Low key interest rates and growing imports exports indicate the economy is recovering even though energy resources are expensive.
The USD/JPY tested the 38.2 Fibonacci level, but failed to consolidate near it and went back to the 50.0 Fibonacci level. Trend is descending. The RSI oscillator is in the lower half near 50.
Support and resistance levels
✔️ Support levels: 135.57, 134.43, 133.72, 133.15
✔️ Resistance levels: 132.57, 131.86, 130.70

Trading scenarios
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 132.57 with a target of 131.86 and a stop loss of 133.72 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 133.72 with a target of 134.43 and a stop loss of 133.15 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
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Analytical department investizo.com
 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


#31 - August 16, 2022, 07:33:58 AM
« Last Edit: September 08, 2022, 12:04:17 PM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD started the week with a decline to $1.09750 amid disappointing German retail sales data and mixed Eurozone economic data.
In terms of Eurozone data, Monday saw the release of July's harmonized consumer price index, which rose 5.5% year-on-year, as well as a flash GDP figure of 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. Despite a 1.6% y/y increase in German retail sales in June, the monthly figure fell to -0.8%. The ECB, raising interest rates, added 25 basis points to 4.25%, suggesting a pause in interest rate hikes in September as signs of weakening inflation and recession fears emerge. The media's interpretation of today's PMI, especially its sub-components - prices, employment and new orders - could affect market sentiment.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230801EURUSD


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#32 - August 01, 2023, 07:39:47 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:30:35 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
Gold is going through a volatile period marked by significant fluctuations and economic events that have affected its price and demand. XAU/USD is currently trading at 1949.50 after an upward correction.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_gold
One of the main catalysts for the rise in gold prices was the unexpected downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch Ratings from AAA to AA+. The move was attributed to concerns over the country's slowing financial growth and increasing government debt over the next three years. While the previous downgrade sent the market into turmoil, this time the initial reaction was relatively calm, but experts continue to monitor the situation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with the decision, calling it "arbitrary," and this disagreement has raised concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling crisis. The downgrade led to a drop in confidence in the economy, prompting investors to rush to gold, considered a safe-haven asset. This has led to an increase in demand, reflecting gold's historical role as a preferred investment during periods of economic uncertainty and stress.


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#33 - August 02, 2023, 08:44:19 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:30:51 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is correcting after a slight decline and is trading at 143.340 as Japanese authorities took steps to defend the currency. This reaction is the result of cautious optimism in the markets and a weaker US dollar amid upcoming US economic data and changes in the dynamics of bond yields. 
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230803USDJPY
The Bank of Japan expanded the ceiling on the allowed rate on 10-year Japanese government bonds from 0.5% to 1.0%. The move pushed JGB yields to their highest levels in a decade, and to control the volatility of the Japanese yen, the BOJ announced unscheduled purchases of 5- and 10-year bonds. Japanese Governor Hirokazu Matsuno expressed confidence in the BOJ's strategy and remained vigilant against currency fluctuations.

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#34 - August 03, 2023, 07:58:47 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:31:06 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
XAU/USD prices are trading in a narrow range at 1936.00 ahead of important macroeconomic data on the US economy.While the US dollar reached a four-week high and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached its highest level since November last year, XAU/USD is about to hit a three-week low. This situation makes gold more expensive for those who trade in other currencies and puts pressure on gold, which is fraught with the risk of breaking the support level of 1916.00.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230804XAUUSD
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#35 - August 04, 2023, 06:10:23 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:31:18 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD
XAU/USD is currently in swing territory, trading at 1937.00 as traders ponder the potential impact of U.S. labor market trends and upcoming inflation data on the direction of U.S. monetary policy. While a weaker dollar and lower bond yields have supported the precious metal, the way forward remains unclear.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230807XAUUSD

Current market conditions have been driven primarily by slowing US job growth, which has weakened the dollar and bond yields, and contributed to gold's rally last Friday. The U.S. jobs report for July showed slower than expected job growth, indicating that the labor market may be stabilizing. This suggested that the recent Fed rate hike could be the last in an ongoing tightening cycle. However, strong wage growth and a declining unemployment rate suggest that the labor market remains tight, providing an opportunity to assess the Fed's future interest rate decisions. In light of these mixed signals from the labor market, attention now turns to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. This data will be key in determining whether further rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. If interest rates rise, gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, could lose its appeal.

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#36 - August 07, 2023, 07:02:37 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:31:36 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose slightly and is trading at 1.09960. The US CPI report led to an unpredictable development: despite a lower than expected core inflation reading, core inflation remained flat, limiting further upside.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230811EURUSD

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#37 - August 11, 2023, 08:29:00 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:14 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.26900, recovering from a one and a half month low as traders await the release of important economic data from the UK and the US. This small rally comes despite a cautious atmosphere in global markets and uncertainty surrounding major risk events. 


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230815GBPUSD(1)


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#38 - August 15, 2023, 06:46:15 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:05 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices rose, recovering from their lowest levels since late June, amid rising expectations of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. This rally in gold prices was supported by the emergence of cautious optimism in the market. The main contributing factors are expectations of further stimulus packages from China and the likelihood that the Fed will end the tightening cycle based on recent conflicting US data indicators. In addition, the recent passivity of major central banks appears to signal the end of the rate hike cycle. These moves have created a safety net for XAU/USD, especially given China's willingness to continue stimulus and India's economic measures. Despite this, the day before, gold prices were dragged to multi-day lows by strong US retail sales, data from China and US Treasury yields. The XAU/USD pair is also under pressure due to weakness in risk assets such as stocks, bonds and other commodities. 

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230816XAUUSD

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#39 - August 16, 2023, 07:43:54 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:31:57 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD

Against the backdrop of a busy economic calendar, the GBP/USD pair is showing notable fluctuations. UK retail sales data for July showed a stronger-than-expected decline of 1.2%. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales fell 3.2%, contrasting with June's 1.6% decline, with core retail sales reflecting a similar downward trend. A number of factors, including rainy weather, higher cost of living and rising food prices, contributed to these low sales numbers. Lower retail sales may reduce the need for the Bank of England to tightly manage inflation. Rising interest rates and the current inflationary environment have led to lower consumer spending, which may ease demand-driven inflationary pressures. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% for the month, ahead of market expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as oil and food, presents a worrying picture of lingering inflation in the UK, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise rates further.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230818GBPUSD


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#40 - August 18, 2023, 08:15:31 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:31:50 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair started the new week confidently, reaching the level of 1.09200, creating prerequisites for optimism in the European currency markets.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently stated that the Eurozone can avoid a prolonged recession. This sentiment has led to a rise in the single currency, especially as the German yield curve begins to tighten, suggesting that the ECB may adjust its policy. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar provided support to the EUR/USD pair. The US Dollar Index fell to 103.130, but the resilience of the US economy suggests the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year, which could offset the sharp fall in the US Dollar.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230822EURUSD


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#41 - August 22, 2023, 06:57:48 AM

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

After stabilizing around the key level of 1900.00, gold prices rebounded slightly to trade at 1903.50. This shift was driven by a decline in the US Dollar Index from a two-month high and a temporary slowdown in US Treasury yields, which recently hit a 16-year high. This allowed for some recovery to take place.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230823XAUUSD


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#42 - August 23, 2023, 08:36:38 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:34 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

On Thursday, EUR/USD resumed its uptrend for the second day in a row, trading near 1.08620. Much of Wednesday's gains were driven by weak US PMI data. Economic data from the eurozone was worrisome as the PMI for August fell to 47.0, below the forecast of 48.5. In eurozone leader Germany, the core PMI also fell to 44.7, well below market expectations of 48.3. Meanwhile, France's private sector contracted in the third quarter. In particular, confidence in the French economy fell sharply and there was considerable pessimism in the manufacturing sector.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230824EURUSD

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#43 - August 24, 2023, 08:37:11 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:43 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline, trading at 1.07730. This behavior of the pair was influenced by such factors as the expectation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech and disappointing US economic indicators.
On Friday, data on the German economy takes center stage, focusing on the country's GDP and business climate index. After disappointing PMI data for August, market participants are preparing for potentially gloomier news. Germany's economy is forecast to contract by 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter and remain flat in the next quarter. Notably, a quarterly contraction could have a significant impact on the market, which would also make the European Central Bank cautious. The business climate index is forecast to fall to 86.7 from a previous reading of 87.3, although this data could be overshadowed by GDP figures. While the focus remains on the state of the German economy, investors will be keeping a close eye on ECB statements, particularly the speech by its president Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for today. Recent poor PMI results in the eurozone have cooled expectations for an ECB rate hike in September. Any hawkish remarks could revive buying interest.
Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230825EURUSD



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#44 - August 25, 2023, 09:08:17 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:50 AM by Mikser »

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Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices started the week trading flat at 1916.00.Factors such as low Treasury yields and US dollar strength, despite hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rates during the year at a conference in Jackson Hole, contributed to gold's resilience. In his comments, Powell pointed to the strength of the US economy and raised the possibility of a rate hike amid growing concerns about inflation. However, the market reaction was somewhat subdued, suggesting that his views were in line with traders' expectations. Given the current rate of inflation and the continued strength of the US economy, a rate hike could come as early as November. Loretta Mester of the FRB Cleveland supported this view, saying that an interest rate hike after a period of relative equilibrium is possible.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_20230828XAUUSD


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#45 - August 28, 2023, 07:50:04 AM
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 10:32:57 AM by Mikser »

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