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Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com

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General analysis AUDUSD for 31.05.2022
Current dynamics

AUD/USD has been trading flat since the beginning of the week, consolidating near 0.7200.
Against the background of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) statements that the key rate hike during the next meeting, scheduled for June 7, is likely to take place, due to the continuing growth of inflation, the "ozzy" began to receive additional attention from investors. At the same time, the U.S. dollar also strengthened its positions. Thus, the positive news for the AUD/USD at the moment did not lead to the rapid growth of the pair only because of the accompanying positive circumstances for the "greenback".
The second positive factor for the strengthening of the Australian dollar, a high-yielding currency, sensitive to the risk sentiment, was the growing appetite for risk due to the easing of the COVID-19 restrictions in the People's Republic of China. The restrictions will be partly loosened on June 1, but yesterday the positive macroeconomic data on the Chinese economy has already come out. The Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 against the expected 48.0 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI was 47.8 against the previous 41.9.
The U.S. inflation rate is gradually declining, nevertheless the pause in tightening of the monetary policy that was discussed so much the previous days in the traders community, most likely, will not take place. Thus, Christopher J. Waller, a member of The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, says he intends to raise the key rate until inflation reaches 2% against the current 6%. Another growth driver for the U.S. national currency is another round of crude oil prices growth, which is a significant export item for the U.S. economy. The above-mentioned factors together with the growth of treasury yields have naturally led to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index coming out today, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI and the Australian GDP data coming out tomorrow are among the news that may influence the AUD/USD pair's movement in the near future.


Support and resistance levels

Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligator’s teeth (red line) is at 0.72040. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the green area, which is a confirmatory buy signal. 
✔️ Support levels: 0.71500, 0.71160, 0.70940.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.72040, 0.72310, 0.72560.


Trading scenarios

✔️ Sell stop position may be opened from the level 0.71500 with target 0.71160 and stop-loss 0.71500. Implementation period: 1-2days.
✔️ Buy stop position may be opened from the level of 0.72040 with target 0.72310 and stop-loss 0.71500. Implementation period: 1-2 days.


audusd.jpg.df8c8a078b6f683d0c409782d5042778.jpg

Analytical department investizo.com


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


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#1 - May 31, 2022, 02:26:18 PM
« Last Edit: May 31, 2022, 07:08:34 PM by Admin »

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General analysis Brent for 01.06.2022
Current Dynamics

According to the American Automobile Association, the cost of gasoline on U.S. gas stations reached $4.62 a gallon. For the year the price growth amounted to $1.57 or 51%. It is worth noting the statement of the head of the international energy agency, from which follows that the current energy crisis is much larger than the crises of the 1970s and 1980s.
Meanwhile, Petrobras has warned the Brazilian government about the possibility of deficit of diesel fuel on the national market. This may happen due to the discrepancy of internal prices on fuel and oil products with the situation on the world fuel market. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year Brazil imported fuel and lubricants from the U.S. for $3.7 billion, which is almost 84% more than in 2021. Meanwhile, Brazilian government officials will discuss the possibility of privatizing Petrobras on June 2.
At the same time, EU leaders reached an agreement on a partial ban on Russian oil imports as part of the 6th sanctions package. As part of the agreement, oil is supposed to come to the EU only through one main oil pipeline, which is only 10% of the total volume of oil that the EU buys from Russia. However, the final version of the EU oil embargo against Russia is still unknown. Against this background, with reference on officials from the EU and the United Kingdom statements Financial Times (FT) stated that the UK and the EU have agreed to a ban on insurance of ships with Russian oil. However, it is worth noting that the British government refused to confirm this information to the FT.
Meanwhile, some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspension of Russia's participation in the oil production deal (OPEC+), as Western sanctions and a partial European ban begin to undermine Moscow's ability to produce more oil, writes The Wall Street Journal, with reference of unnamed OPEC delegates. Releasing Russia from its oil production targets could potentially open the way for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other OPEC producers to increase oil production. However, in early May the UAE and Saudi Arabia made it clear that OPEC+ would not be able to increase oil production, as any change would require a unanimous decision. It is worth noting that at the moment OPEC+ is behind the planned level of oil production on 2.6 million barrels per day. At the same time OPEC+ believes that today the oil market is balanced.
Further growth of oil quotes limits fears of the market participants regarding the recovery of demand in China after the softening of the quarantine restrictions, as it is not known how quickly the economic growth will recover and the demand for fuel will recover in the country.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on weekly U.S. crude oil inventories at 22:30 (GMT+2) today. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will release data on crude oil inventories tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2). It is expected a decline in stocks by 0.067M.
Support and resistance levels.


Brent has fallen below the key Fibonacci level of 76.4 and has moved into consolidation. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator after crossing the 70 level from top to bottom is near the 50 level at the top.
✔️ Support levels: 114.22, 112.30, 110.40, 108.05, 104.25

✔️ Resistance levels: 120.35, 116.52

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 116.52, with a target of 120.35 and a stop loss of 114.22. Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 114.22, with a target of 110.40 and a stop loss of 116.52. Implementation period: 2-4 days


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_brent

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


#2 - June 01, 2022, 08:05:51 AM

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General analysis USDJPY for 02.06.2022
Current Dynamics
The leader of Japan said that the Bank of Japan has kept its position on inflation targets. Japan has adopted a supplementary budget. Japan begins restarting nuclear reactors.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishid said in a joint statement of the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government at a meeting of the Budget Committee of the House of Councilors (upper house) of the Parliament that they don't plan to change of their target for inflation rate of 2%. At the same time the Japanese parliament adopted a supplementary budget of 2.7 trillion yen ($21.2 billion) for fighting the sharp rise on fuel and food prices in the current fiscal year. Almost 1.2 trillion yen ($9.4 bln) will be used for prolongation of the current program of oil subsidies till the end of September.
It is worth noting the statement of Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda that Japanese government will not leave the Sakhalin-2 project even if they are told to do so. "Sakhalin-2" is an oil and gas project in which Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi have a 12.5% and 10% stake respectively.


Along with this, at a press conference in Tokyo, the Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno announced the restart of reactor No. 2 at Shimane Nuclear Power Plant. It was also said that with the current deficit in energy supply and the continuing growth of fuel prices it is necessary to maximize the use of nuclear energy, based on safety considerations.
Meanwhile in the USA the citizens of Texas risk overpaying for the electric power again, the demand for which reached the maximum levels of May in the history of observation because the citizens try to save from heat with the help of air conditioners. It should be reminded that after the unexpected shutdown of several power plants, prices per megawatt hour in Texas have been raised above $4,000. It is also worth noting that the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of the U.S. and Mexico begins the storm season, which will end in November.


Increasing prices for energy and energy products will put inflationary pressure on both currencies. However Japan is trying to get inflation up to 2% and the USA is starting to tighten its monetary policy in order to hold inflation rate, which is already above 8%.

Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May will be released tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2) and is expected to rise to 51.7 points. Later at 14:30 (GMT+2), the U.S. Unemployment Rate for May will be released, expected to decrease to 3.5%.
Support and resistance levels.


USD/JPY failed to break through the key level of 76.4 Fibonacci and corrected down, but stayed above the key level of 61.8 Fibonacci. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator crossed the 70 level from top to bottom and stayed near the 70 level.

✔️ Support levels: 129.43, 128.85, 128.26, 127.53, 126.36
✔️ Resistance levels: 130.16, 131.33

Trading scenarios
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 130.16, with a target of 131.33 and stop loss 129.43: Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 129.43 with a target of 128.26 and stop loss 130.16: Implementation period: 2-4 days

jpy.jpg.8039bfa6354763bc7215f669822b8c75.jpg

Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


#3 - June 03, 2022, 06:39:23 AM
« Last Edit: June 03, 2022, 10:19:20 AM by Admin »

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General analysis AUDUSD for 06.06.2022
Current Dynamics

The energy crisis in Australia has led to a six-fold increase in electricity prices in the eastern states. In Australia recommended a 5.1% wage increase. Some experts believe the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates by 40 bps tomorrow.


The Australian federal government is struggling to find a solution to the country's worsening energy crisis. At the moment, electricity prices for electricity are six times higher than usual price per megawatt hour in the eastern states and reaches $600.


Now the Australian government is exploring the possibility of imposing trade limitations, designed to bring more gas to the local market, but even if the measures are adopted, their effect will only be seen by the end of the year.


Meanwhile, the Australian Labor Minister said the government has decided to recommend a 5.1% wage increase for all "low-wage workers".
Worth noting that wages and spending data convinced ANZ economists to expect a 40bp interest rate hike tomorrow rather than a 25bp hike. While GDP was in line with ANZ forecasts, wage data showed that average hourly non-farm payrolls rose more than 5% in half a year.
The U.S. labor market released last week was better than forecasts. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 390,000, better than the forecast of 325,000. The U.S. Unemployment Rate remained the same at 3.6%. Also, the U.S. Hourly Wage Growth in May was 0.3%, which is a bit worse than expected but at the same level as in April.


Thus, strong U.S. data points to the fact that the Fed will not have to correct its plans and slow down the tempo of key rate increase. At the same time even if the RBA decides to increase the rate by 40bp, it is less than 50bp on which the Fed will raise the rate, so the Australian dollar will be under pressure.

Tomorrow at 6:30 (GMT+2) the Australia Interest Rate Decision will be released, forecasting an increase for 25bp to 0.60%. Later that day at 14:30 (GMT+2), U.S. Trade Balance data will be released.
Support and resistance levels.
AUD/USD currency pair quotes fell below the key Fibonacci level 61.8. The current trend is going upward. RSI oscillator is near the 50 level in the upper half.
✔️ Support levels: 0.7143, 0.7068, 0.6977, 0.6830
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.7457, 0.7308, 0.7216

Trading scenarios
✔️ Long positions can be opened from the current level with target 0.7308 and stop-loss 0.7143 Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.7143 with target 0.6977 and stop-loss 0.7216 Implementation period: 1-3 days


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_audusd

Analytical department investizo.com
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.



#4 - June 06, 2022, 07:06:56 AM
« Last Edit: June 06, 2022, 07:10:40 AM by Investizo »

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Fundamental analysis GBPUSD for 06.06.2022

Current dynamics


GBP/USD strengthens on Monday, compensating for Friday's losses. Despite good macroeconomic data from the US at the end of the last week, today's strengthening of sterling came thanks to major political headlines. A vote of confidence in the UK Prime Minister will take place today. A spokesman for Johnson's Downing Street office said: "The Prime Minister welcomes the opportunity to convey his position to MPs and remind them that when they come together and focus on the issues that matter to voters, there will be no more intimidation of political power."

Markets believe the vote will end months of speculation and allow Johnson's government to focus on political and economic priorities if Johnson receives a vote of confidence.

Despite the clouds surrounding the UK economy as a result of a surge in inflation, there remains optimism that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June, which could have a positive impact on the sterling.

For his part, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee explained that the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates further in the coming months to ensure that inflation returns to the desired target of two percent in the medium term.

As Bank of England deputy governor, John Cunliffe added: " It's now above pre-pandemic levels and now, of course, we have to make sure that the inflation we are seeing in the economy, I think most of it, but not all, comes from shocks that people understand externally - is not rooted in the economy."

Recently, many have been betting aggressively that the bank rate could rise to 2% by the end of the year, despite assurances from the Bank of England that such an outcome is unlikely. At the same time, MPC members have also highlighted that there are various circumstances in which inflation expectations and conditions in the economy may merit further increases.

As for the most important events that could affect the pair's performance, certainly, today's vote of confidence in the UK Prime Minister will be one of the important events, as will next Wednesday's PMI, while the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week will have the biggest impact on the pair's performance, as we could see big swings if the results are unexpected.

Support and resistance levels

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting in the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. And the price range has shrunk, which indicates the presence of corrective dynamics. The momentum chart is above the 100 level, which is giving sell signals. Envelopes indicator gives signals to sell.

✔️ Support levels: 1,26525, 1,26125, 1,25750.
✔️ Resistance levels: 1,25350, 1,25000, 1,24500, 1,24050.


Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened at the level of 1,25350, with a target of 1,25750 and stop loss 1,25000: Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Short positions can be opened at the level of 1,25000 with a target of 1,24500 and stop loss 1,25350: Implementation period: 1-2 days.


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_GBPUSD20220606



Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#5 - June 06, 2022, 03:07:16 PM

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General analysis AUDJPY for 07.06.2022
Current dynamics
The AUD/JPY breached the 96.00 level and fluctuates around the 94.35 level amid decisive hawkish measures taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The rate hike was clearly expected by all market participants, as rising inflation in the Australian economy can only be stopped by tighter monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its key rate by 50 basis points, from 0.35 percent to 0.85 percent, exceeding analysts expectations, who were divided in their forecasts between a final rate of 0.6 percent or 0.75 percent. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in an effort to control growing inflation. Such a big interest rate hike was the biggest increase since 2000 and has naturally woken up the bulls enormous appetite for the "ozzie".
This shock, caused by the Reserve Bank's decision not meeting traders expectations, is caused by the fact that in addition to problems with rapidly rising inflation, the Australian economy is experiencing significant complications in the labor market. Making such a decision, so sharp and consistent increase in the key rate, is quite risky for the national Australian economy, increases the likelihood of recession, puts the labor market at risk.
News from the Land of the Rising Sun also contributed to the pairs rapid rally. Head of Bank of Japan (BOJ) Haruhiko Kuroda said that right now a weak yen is good for the national economy. He defends soft monetary policy saying that a tightening of monetary policy would be inappropriate and have a negative impact on both domestic consumption and capital investment. Recent macroeconomic indicators showed a divergence in average wage and overtime pay growth and a drop in the household spending index.
Upcoming AUD/JPY news that could have an impact on the future course of events include the release of Adjusted Current Account and quarterly and annual GDP data for Japan and the Australian Business Confidence Index, which will be released on Wednesday.
Support and resistance levels
Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligator’s teeth (red line) is at 94.430. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area, showing a divergence, which is not a reliable signal to open a position.
✔️ Support levels: 94.800, 94.430, 93.810.
✔️ Resistance levels: 97.190, 96.570, 95.960.

Trading scenarios
✔️ Long positions can be opened at the level of 95.960, with a target of 96.570 and stop loss 95.350: Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Short positions can be opened at the level of 94.800 with a target of 94.430 and stop loss 95.350: Implementation period: 1-2 days.


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_AUDJPY20220607
 
Analytical department investizo.com
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


#6 - June 07, 2022, 07:55:41 AM

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General analysis Brent for 07.06.2022

Current Dynamics


The U.S. Department of Energy reported a decline in strategic stocks. The U.S. State Department allowed two companies to trade oil from Venezuela. Saudi Aramco increased selling prices of oil for Asia. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production in July and August on 648,000 bpd.
The U.S. Department of Energy claimed it had released an additional 40 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Nevertheless, oil prices went up to $120 per barrel. The current level of strategic stocks in the U.S. is at its lowest level since 1987. As noted by Bloomberg, from February 22 to May 27, 2022 the volume of reserves decreased by 52.2 million barrels. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department has allowed the Italian company "Eni" and the Spanish company "Repsol" to resume oil supplies from Venezuela to Europe. However, the volume of oil received by these companies will not be large, which will have little effect on the market.
The largest oil field in Lebanon has resumed its work after 2 months of its suspension, reports Argus agency. However, there was no statement from the Libyan National Oil Company that it had resumed work.
Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco increased selling prices for July Arab Light for Asia by $2.1 from June levels and will increase prices for the Oman/Dubai basket by $6.5. For Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, the price has been increased by $2.2 and $2, respectively. It is worth noting that prices for US consumers remained unchanged. 
At the same time in Russia there has been registered a decrease in oil production by 11.5% (38 mln tons) in April as against March 2022.
At the meeting of OPEC +, which took place on June 2, it was decided to increase oil production in July and August for 648 thousand barrels per day by equal distribution of the September quota. 
Meanwhile, Bloomberg, referring to an unnamed source, stated that the oil refining companies in India are planning to sign an extra six months contract with the Russian oil company Rosneft for the supply of oil. It is also worth noting that just now begins the recovery of demand for oil and energy resources in China after the removal of restrictions on major cities, which were implemented earlier due to Covid-19.
Decline in oil production in Russia and the beginning of the recovery of demand in China may point at the fact that oil prices will continue to grow. Currently, the major oil exporters will not be able to increase oil production quickly.

U.S. crude inventories will be released today at 22:30 (GMT+2) by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will publish data on crude oil inventories tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2). Expect the stocks will decrease by 1.800M.
Support and resistance levels.

Brent prices have broken through the key Fibonacci level of 100.00 but cannot hold above. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator is near the 50 level at the upper part.

✔️ Support levels: 118.10, 116.52, 114.22, 11.30, 110.40, 108.05, 104.25
✔️ Resistance levels: 125.00, 120.35

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 120.35, with a target of 125.00 and a stop loss of 118.10. Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 116.52 with a target of 114.22 and stop-loss 118.10. Implementation period: 2-4 days

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_Brent20220607



Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer:
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#7 - June 07, 2022, 02:02:02 PM

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General analysis AUDUSD for 09.06.2022

Current dynamics


Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key rate by 50bp. The World Bank lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. economy. U.S. retailers cancel orders on products. Janet Yellen acknowledged macroeconomic problems in the U.S.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key rate by 50 bps to 0.85%. RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the double-take of the regular rate was necessary for the stability of the local economy due to rising inflation due to growing energy prices. It is worth noting that on the background of gas shortages, the energy crisis is exacerbated by the shutdown at least 25% of coal-fired power plants due to weather events and other reasons.
Meanwhile, the World Bank has lowered growth forecasts for the US economy in 2022 from 3.7% to 2.5% and for 2023 from 2.6% to 2.4%. At the same time, retailers are cancelling orders for new products especially for home furnishings and clothing, and cutting prices to get rid of accumulated stocks. According to a Bloomberg report in May, all major U.S. retailers reported increases of stock levels in stores. Target reported a 43% increase of stock, Walmart reported a 32% increase, Macy's reported a 17% increase, and Costco reported a 26% increase. As a result, these large retailers now face rising storage costs or have to give shoppers big discounts to make room for more products. This means an increase in the cost of the remaining products for consumers to compensate discounts and an increased cost of managing and storing inventory for companies.
It is also worth noting that in the U.S. there is "shrinkflation" - a decrease of package sizes by manufacturers without lowering prices. This phenomenon is designed to hide inflation from the consumer, because customers will see price increases but will not watch the net weight or small details, such as the number of sheets on a roll of toilet paper.
In the backdrop, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that the U.S. faces macroeconomic challenges, including unacceptable levels of inflation. The statement also said that the steps taken against inflation are crucial.
Despite key rate increase by 50bp, AUD/USD quotes failed to move up. The statements of U.S. Treasury Secretary and unpleasant news show that the Fed might take more aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy in the coming Wednesday than it was expected by experts months earlier.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will be published at 14:30 (GMT +2) today, which is forecast by experts at 210K.
Support and resistance levels.

AUD/USD fell below the key Fibonacci level of 61.8 and went into consolidation. The RSI oscillator crossed the 50 level from top to bottom.✔️ Support levels: 0.7143, 0.7068, 0.6977, 0.6830.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.7457, 0.7308, 0.7216

Trading scenarios
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7143 with target 0.7308 and stop-loss 0.6977 Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7216 with target 0.7308 and stop-loss 0.7143 Implementation period: 2-4 days

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_AUDUSD20220609



Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#8 - June 09, 2022, 06:45:54 AM

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General analysis USDCAD for 10.06.2022

Current dynamics


USD/CAD reached the June highs and consolidated around 1.27000

Among the main factors that caused the USD/CAD pair to rally to the June high at 1.27000 is not only the recent strengthening of the US dollar, caused by the consistent measures of the Federal Reserve to fight the rising inflation, but also the decline in the price of WTI, which is the main export item of Canada. After reaching the above-mentioned peak, the pair entered consolidation, waiting for traders reaction to important macroeconomic statistics on both currencies of the pair, coming out today.

Another significant and more complex driver of the rise in the pair was the global decline in appetite for risk, caused by a number of reasons of various nature.

The European Central Bank (ECB), which is concerned about rising inflation, announced its decision to stop the quantitative easing policy and raise its key rate by 25 bps at the next meeting on July 25.

The Fed also does not intend to abandon its plans to raise the rate by 50 bps over the next two summer meetings scheduled for June and July, with most analysts agreeing that with the expectation of a continued upward trend in inflation, despite fears of a possible economic recession, successive rate increases will occur not only in September, probably also by 50 bps, but by the end of 2022 as well.

At the same time the Bank of Canada (BOC) also keeps up with this trend, despite the expressed fears about the risks of downward tendencies for the national economy, caused by toughening of the monetary policy.

The situation with oil prices also adds uncertainty to the pairs perspectives: on the one hand, the crude oil embargo from Russia, which provokes the world energy crisis, pushes the black gold price up, on the other hand, the return of the covid restrictions in the People's Republic of China, which is a major exporter, sends oil prices south again.

Among the macroeconomic data which were mentioned at the beginning of this article and are expected to be published today, the ones which may affect the further USD/CAD pair quotes fate in the nearest future should be mentioned the Core Consumer Price Index for May, which is expected to decline by 0.1% from the previous 0.6% in the USA and the Employment Change for May in Canada, which is expected to increase almost twice, from 15.3K in April to 30K last month.

Support and resistance levels.

Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above he alligators teeth (red line) is at 1,27050. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the red area, which is a confirmatory sell signal.

✔️ Support levels: 1.26850, 1.26550, 1.26160
✔️ Resistance levels: 1.27890, 1.27510, 1.27050

Trading scenarios
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.26850 with target 1.26550 and stop-loss 1.26950 Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.27050 with target 1.27510 and stop-loss 1.26950 Implementation period: 2-4 days

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_USDCAD20220610



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Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#9 - June 10, 2022, 06:46:07 AM

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General analysis USDCAD for 13.06.2022

Current Dynamics.


The USD/CAD pair rose at the beginning of todays trading session. The pair continued to maintain its gains for the fourth consecutive session.

Some may refer the main reason for the rise of the US dollar to the recent macroeconomic data, which showed the great inflationary pressures facing the US economy, which increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate the pace in raising interest rates at a faster pace in the upcoming meetings to hold down inflation.

The data of the US Census Bureau showed that the consumer price inflation index in the country rose on a monthly basis by 1% during last May, exceeding expectations for an increase of 0.7%, and the index rose by its basic value when excluding energy and food prices by 0.6% last month, exceeding expectations for a 0.5% increase.

On an annual basis, the US consumer price index rose 8.6% on an annual basis in May, the highest level since 1981, and exceeded expectations for a rise of 8.3%.

Commenting on the latest economic data, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the Federal Reserve had failed to correct its mistakes on inflation, which damaged its credibility, after the recent inflation data ended hopes for a peak. Summers warned of the Federal Reserve’s delay in raising the interest rate to control inflation, noting that discussions should be about raising interest rates between 50 to 75 basis points in the coming period. Besides that, US President Joe Biden said, “We will live with this inflation for a while, it will gradually decrease, but we will live with it for a while.”

Besides the statements, the numbers confirm that US inflation has not reached its peak yet, and that the Federal Reserve, which has committed to raise interest rates at each of its next two meetings, starting next week, will have to maintain this hawkish attitude during its September meeting.

In view of the most important events that may affect the performance of the pair, the US macroeconomic data will be present and strongly through the Producer price index for the month of May, along with the most important event which is the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.

Support and resistance levels.

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the upper side of the Bollinger Bands. As the price range expands, indicating that the instrument is in an uptrend. The momentum chart is above the 100 level, which gives sell signals. The Envelopes indicator gives clear buy signals.

✔️ Support levels: 1.27925, 1.27625, 1.27225.
✔️ Resistance levels: 1.28395, 1.28700, 1.29200.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions should be opened at the 1.27925 with a target of 1.28395 and a stop loss at 1.27625. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.27625 with a target of 1.27225 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.27925. Implementation period: 1-2 days.


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_USDCAD20220613



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Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#10 - June 13, 2022, 09:31:10 AM

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General analysis AUDUSD for 14.06.2022

Current Dynamics



The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia might need to increase interest rates more aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicted a sharp decline of housing prices. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since records began.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to raise interest rates more aggressively to curb inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned. Also, the OECD declared that it expects the monetary rate will reach 2.5% by the end of 2023. The organization also warned that strong global inflationary pressures and a tight labor market pose an additional risk of higher inflation in Australia. Expect the Australian economy to grow by 4.2% in 2022, a little faster than the 4.1% growth rate projected in December but now expected to slower growth in 2023 to 2.5% instead of 3%. It is worth noting that the OECD believes that skilled migration will begin after the opening of international borders. Australia's engineering vacancy rate is growing by 97% in 12 months.
However, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia is now expecting house prices to fall by 18% as the RBA continues to increase interest rates to beat the highest inflation in 32 years. The RBA currently expects inflation in Australia to continue to increase and reach 6.25% by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose above 105 points for the first time since December 2002. A rising U.S. dollar index means it is strengthening against a basket of currencies. Nevertheless, the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.2, its lowest level since records began. Also, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices increased 8.6% in May from a year earlier, which is the fastest annual jump since late 1981. U.S. consumers' assessment of their personal financial situation deteriorated sharply. Half of all U.S. consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline during interviews, and 46% of consumers attributed their worsening estimates to inflation.
In the short term we should expect further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, in Australia, judging by the labor market, there is potential for industrial and mining growth, while in the U.S., on the contrary, a sharp increase in interest rates in order to deal with inflation may lead to a recession. The Fed's next Interest Rate Decision is Wednesday.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM will be released at 14:30 (GMT+2) today.
Experts forecast an increase of 0.8%. Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be released tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2) and later in the day at 22:00 (GMT+2), Fed Interest Rate Decision will be released. It is expected to be increased by 50 bps to 1.50%.
Support and Resistance Levels.

 AUD/USD fell below the key Fibonacci 23.6 level but failed to fix  below. The current trend is downward. RSI oscillator is below the 30 level.

✔️ Support levels: 0.6931,0.6829,
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.7345, 0.7265, 0.7163, 0.7098, 0.7047, 0.6996 

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions may be opened from the level 0.6996 with target 0.6931 and stop-loss 0.7047 Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7047 with target 0.7098 and stop-loss 0.6996 Implementation period: 1-3 days


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_AUDUSD20220614


Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#11 - June 14, 2022, 07:16:36 AM

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General analysis USDJPY for 15.06.2022

Current dynamics


USD/JPY consolidates around 135.000 amid silence before the announcement of the new key rate in the U.S.

Suspension of so rapid growth in the pair, which has overcome a mark of 135.500 the day before, probably due to falling U.S. Treasury yields and traders expecting the announcement of a new key rate later today.

In addition, there was positive macroeconomic news on Japan earlier today, with Core Orders for machinery production coming in at 10.8% for April versus expectations of -1.5% and 7.1% last month. Annual data for the same indicator was 19% against expectations of 5.3% and 7.6% last year, respectively. Thus, it seems that the cheap money policy so consistently pursued by the Bank of Japan is beginning to bring its dividends, causing positive expectations in the industrial area of the economy.

Also in this situation the Japanese stock markets showed decline, so Nikkei 225 and Topix decreased by about 0.6%. Companies related to the technology and energy sectors showed the biggest drop, amid difficulties with the logistics of technological components and rising oil prices. In such a difficult situation the growth of orders in machine-building is conditioned by persisting high domestic consumer demand and desire of economic agents to convert monetary savings into material goods.

At the same time, not the most favorable economic news was released in USA, in particular the US Dollar Index (DXY) showed decline from recent highs reflecting a similar drop in government bond yields.

The key interest rate hike expected by most analysts is 75 basis points. Thus on the pair it is expected continuation of a bullish trend, and, certainly, the further movement upwards cannot be avoided in a situation when the Bank of Japan is the only central bank of the largest economies in the world, continuing a soft monetary policy in the current circumstances.

In addition to the pairs fateful announcement of a new Fed key rate and FOMC statement today, USD/JPY traders should keep an eye on the following macroeconomic news that could affect further developments: Core Retail Sales Index, May Retail Sales and U.S. Crude Oil Stocks also today, annual export, import and trade balance in Japan tomorrow. 

Support and resistance levels

Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligators teeth (red line) is at 135.420. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the green area, the bars are close to the zero level, which is a strong confirmatory buy signal.

✔️ Resistance levels: 136.290, 135.890, 135.420.
✔️ Support levels: 134.410, 133.800, 133.240.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 134.410 with a target of 133.800 and a stop loss at 134.900. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Long positions can be opened at the level of 135.420 with a target of 135.890 and a stop-loss at the level of 134.900. Implementation period: 1-2 days.



Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_USDJPY20220615



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This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
#12 - June 15, 2022, 08:37:42 AM

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General analysis USDJPY for 17.06.2022

Current Dynamics.



Japanese farmers are going to cut rice production and start planting wheat and soybeans. Japan's leader said he would set up a working group to fight inflation. The second-largest foreign trade deficit in the history of observations recorded by the Ministry of Finance of Japan in May.
Japanese farmers are going to cut rice production and start planting wheat and soybeans, considering rising grain prices. As of today, 80 percent of the wheat and 90 percent of the soybeans needed for the country's population are bought abroad, for which prices have risen significantly. At the same time, rice consumption and prices in Japan have been declining since 1962 as Japanese lifestyles change and life expectancy declines.
Meanwhile, Japan's government has said that if import prices of wheat remain elevated after September, the government will hold meat prices down by offering compensation to producers to offset higher feed costs. This would reduce production costs for basic agricultural products by about 10 percent to counter rising fertilizer prices.
Along with this, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would create a task force to fight inflation and stimulate wage growth.
Meanwhile, the second-largest foreign trade deficit in the history of monitoring was fixed by the Ministry of Finance of Japan in May at 2.38 trillion yen ($ 17.7 billion). It is worth noting that in some industries there is a significant reduction in exports. For example, Japan sold cars to China for 36.3% of the lower sum than it was in May 2021. In addition, the volume of exports of the equipment used in the production of microcircuits decreased. It is worth noting that the deficit has been observed for the 10th month in a row and is mainly due to the high cost of raw materials.
At the same time there was negative news in the US labor market and construction sector. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims totaled 229K in May and U.S. Building Permits decreased to 1.695M. 
The Bank of Japan is starting to be pressured by the Japanese government to take measures to fight inflation and stabilize the yen. In the U.S., there are negative signals in the labor market, which previously allowed the White House to speak about the strength of the U.S. economy.
 
Today at 05:00(GMT+2) will release the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and the Japan Interest Rate Decision. Later that day at 14:45(GMT+2) will be the U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks.
Support and Resistance Levels.

The USD/JPY returned to growth after a strong move lower and locked above the key Fibonacci 38.3 level. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator touched the 30 level and went up. The RSI oscillator is below 50.✔️ Support levels: 133.06, 132.46, 131.50
✔️ Resistance levels: 135.58, 134.62, 134.03, 133.54

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 133.54 with a target of 134.62 and a stop loss of 133.06 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Short positions may be opened below the level of 133.06 with a target of 131.50 and a stop loss of 133.54: Implementation period: 1-3 days


Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_USDJPY20220617


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#13 - June 17, 2022, 06:18:17 AM

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General analysis USDCAD for 21.06.2022

Current dynamics


The USD/CAD pair opened todays trading session with a decline. The Canadian dollar continued its gains for the second session in a row, after the pair reached its highest level at 1.30787 in last Fridays session.

Combined with the US holiday, the light calendar and traders hesitation about the next market moves, along with their fears of faster monetary policy tightening and an economic slowdown, all of this put downward pressure on the US dollar.

However, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellens statements came to confirm that a recession is not inevitable in the United States, with expectations of a slowdown in the economy in the midst of its transition to slow and stable growth.

On the other hand, according to statements by members of the US Federal Reserve, the US Central Bank is determined to continue raising US interest rates without regard to fears of economic stagnation until US inflation stops its record rise.

A member of the US Federal Reserve and President of the St. Louis Federal Bank, James Bullard, expressed that more interest rate hikes are coming in the upcoming meetings, and assured that the economic expansion will continue in the current year, speaking about the labor market, saying that it is still solid, and indicates the strength of the US economy.

Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller also said that he supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July if the data comes out as expected.

On the other hand, the US dollar index DXY is still extending the beginning of the week’s losses to 104.30, down 0.20%, while the 10-year US Treasury yields recorded a three-day bullish trend around 3.284%.

All eyes will be on as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify in his semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate on Wednesday and will repeat his statement before a different committee on Thursday, where market participants will look for clues about economic developments in the US.

Looking at the most important events that may affect the pair’s performance, on the American side, in addition to Jerome Powells statements on Wednesday and Thursday, there will also be a reading of the final consumer confidence in Michigan for the month of June, and this week we will also see the results of the existing home sales indicators, along with orders mortgage and initial unemployment benefits claims.

On the Canadian side, the retail sales data for the month of April will be significant on Tuesday, as core sales are expected to come in at 0.8%, up from 0.2% in March, while sales excluding cars are expected to come in at 0.6%, down from the previous 2.4% in March and the CPI for May, which is expected to come in at 0.4%, compared to 0.7% in April.

Support and resistance levels

On the 4 hour chart, the instrument failed to consolidate above the Bollinger Bands moving average. The indicator is directed downward and the price range has shrunk, indicating that the current trend is about to change.The momentum chart is above the 100 level, which gives sell signals. The Envelopes indicator gives buy signals.

Support levels: 1.30775, 1.30200, 1.29725.
✔️ Resistance levels: 1.29200, 1.28675, 1.28125.

Trading scenarios

Long positions should be opened at the 1.29200 with a target of 1.29725 and a stop loss at 1.281675. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
✔️ Short positions can be opened above the level of 1.28675 with a target of 1.28125 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.29200. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_USDCAD20220621



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#14 - June 21, 2022, 10:41:48 AM

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General analysis Brent for 22.06.2022

Current Dynamics



The head of the U.S. Treasury revealed the mechanism for reducing Russia's oil revenues. After another increase of selling prices the head of Petrobras resigned. In the UK, fuel prices set a new record against the background of the largest railway workers' strike. Saudi Arabia increased oil production in April on 1.4%. The Indian Government called upon the state companies to buy larger volumes of crude oil from Russia.
The head of the US Treasury Department, Janet Yellen, said that the initiative, which is being worked out by the USA and its allies, is called to increase the supplies of Russian oil to the global market and at the same time to reduce its cost.  The countries are considering the possibility of introducing a price limit or exclusion that would reduce the price of Russian oil and limit Russia's revenues, while allowing more oil to enter the market. Such measure will allow the European companies to insure the Russian oil. It is worth noting that Canada and the U.S. admit that rejecting oil from Russia is a "more difficult" situation for Europe.
Meanwhile, Petrobras on Friday announced another increase in selling prices. The cost of diesel fuel for distributors increased on 14.26% and gasoline rose on 5.18%. After which the head of the Brazilian national oil and gas company Petrobras Jose Mauro Coelho resigned.
Against the backdrop of a strike of railway workers in the UK, fuel prices set new records. According to the car service company RAC, on average 1 liter of unleaded gasoline cost £1.887 and diesel fuel - £1.961. Is worth noting that over the year the average cost of gasoline in the kingdom has grown on 45% and diesel fuel - 48%.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia in April increased oil production by 1.4%. In annual terms, the value jumped on 28.4%. Exports rose 2% to 7.382 million barrels per day (bpd), 36.5% higher than April 2021. 
However, Russia displaced Saudi Arabia from the first place in the list of the main suppliers of oil to China. Russian oil shipments to China totaled nearly 1.98 million b/d in May, which is 25% more than in April and 55% more than in May 2021.
At the same time, the Indian government strongly recommends its state companies to buy "large volumes" of crude oil from Russia with a discount. It is worth noting that during the period from May 27 to June 15, India has increased its purchases of Russian oil by 31 times compared to the same period a year ago.
While there are changes in logistical chains, the deficit of oil will have an effect, but the impending economic crisis and the risk of recession may lead to a reduction in demand for oil.

Today at 22:30 (GMT+2) the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on weekly U.S. crude oil inventories. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will release data on crude oil inventories tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2). Inventories are expected to decline by 1.433M.
Support and resistance levels.

Brent has broken through the key Fibonacci 50.00 level. RSI oscillator is near the 30 level.

✔️ Support levels: 107.30, 10360, 97.40
✔️ Resistance levels: 123.25, 117.20, 113.35, 110.30

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened from the current level with a target of 117.20 and a stop loss of 107.20. Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions may be opened below the level of 107.20, with a target of 103.60 and a stop loss of 110.30. Implementation period: 2-4 days

Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com in Fundamental_Brent20220622

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#15 - June 22, 2022, 06:47:01 AM

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