Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

What Are Commodity Currencies and How Do They Correlate?


Commodity currencies are those tied to the value of a country?s key exports, such as oil, metals, or agricultural goods. Their movements are influenced by shifts in global demand, supply disruptions, and economic policies. In this article, we will explore how commodity prices impact commodity-linked currencies and what traders may need to consider.

What Is a Commodity Currency?
The commodity currency definition refers to currencies issued by countries whose economies rely heavily on exporting natural resources. Their value tends to fluctuate in line with the prices of key commodities like oil, metals, and agricultural goods. When these exports become more valuable, the national economy benefits, often leading to a stronger currency. Conversely, when commodity prices fall, these currencies tend to weaken due to declining export revenues. Several well-known commodity-based currencies fall into this category.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) ? Oil and Trade with the US
Canada is one of the world?s largest crude oil exporters, making CAD highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations. A rise in oil prices typically strengthens CAD, as higher revenues improve Canada?s trade balance and economic outlook. CAD also reacts to US economic performance, given that over 75% of Canadian exports go to the US. If US demand weakens, CAD can struggle even if oil prices move in a narrow range.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro and Pound Lose Support Amid Strong US Data and Inflation Expectations


European currencies remain under pressure: EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue their decline, reflecting the strengthening influence of the US dollar. Last week, US inflation data exceeded forecasts: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan inflation expectations both rose, signalling persistent price pressures in the economy. This factor reinforced the dollar?s position and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on monetary easing.

Additional support for the dollar came from labour market data, which confirmed employment resilience. Together, these developments limit the scope for aggressive rate cuts. Against this backdrop, the euro and pound remain vulnerable ahead of their own inflation releases in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/USD


The inability of EUR/USD buyers to hold above 1.1720 has led to the formation of a tower top reversal pattern on the daily chart. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of a deeper downward correction if the price consolidates below 1.1580. A break of this bearish scenario could occur following a firm move above 1.1720.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Coinbase (COIN) shares fall to a 2-month low


According to the chart of Coinbase Global (COIN), the stock price of the cryptocurrency exchange is sliding towards the $295 level, a 2-month low.

It is worth recalling that last month we reported that COIN stock had surged to an all-time high around $400. At that time, we:
→ highlighted the long-term grey channel and the short-term blue one;
→ suggested a potential correction from the upper boundary of the grey channel.

Since then, COIN?s share price has declined by more than 20% (yesterday?s drop was fuelled by a broader risk-off sentiment in technology stocks, which we analysed earlier today in the context of the Nasdaq 100 index). If this is indeed a correction from the all-time high, it looks too deep for a bull market. Could COIN shares extend their decline?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD and CAD Under Pressure: Markets Await Signals from Powell and the Fed


Commodity currencies, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars, remain under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, as investors await signals from Jerome Powell on the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy. Adding to the uncertainty were the recently released FOMC minutes: most Committee members expressed concern about accelerating inflation amid tariff policies and are not ready to rush into easing. At the same time, for the first time since 1993, two members advocated a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring fresh inflation data in Canada and US business activity indices, which could fuel volatility and provide short-term guidance for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

AUD/USD


The AUD/USD pair approached the July highs earlier this week. Technical analysis of AUD/USD suggests a possible strengthening of the downtrend should the pair firmly consolidate below 0.6400. On the daily timeframe, several bearish candlestick patterns (bearish engulfing and three black crows) have formed, with their completion potentially paving the way for a test of key support levels at 0.6340?0.6380. At the same time, sharp pullbacks and false breakouts of these levels could occur, with a subsequent return to 0.6440?0.6460. The pair has been declining for the second consecutive week, and given the corresponding fundamental backdrop, a corrective rebound remains possible.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Shares Plunge Below $150


Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a company specialising in big data analytics software, delivered an unpleasant surprise to investors:
→ just last week, the stock was trading at its all-time high of around $190;
→ yesterday, the price collapsed below $150. At yesterday?s intraday low, PLTR stock had dropped almost 25% from its record peak.

Why Did Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Stock Fall?

Bearish sentiment may have been driven by:
→ capital rotation from risk assets into so-called defensive stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair?s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium (as we reported yesterday);
→ growing speculation that a ?bubble? is forming in the technology sector, which could burst.

According to Investor?s Business Daily, Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, bet on downside in PLTR, arguing that the stock is severely overvalued following its phenomenal 340% rally in 2024.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair?s Speech


On Monday, we:
→ noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating at the start of a week packed with key events;
→ outlined a descending channel (shown in red);
→ highlighted that the price was trading around the channel?s median line, signalling a balanced market;
→ suggested that a test of one of the quarter lines (QL or QH), which divide the channel into four parts, could take place.

As the DXY chart indicates, since then the balance has shifted in favour of buyers, with the price forming an upward trajectory (shown in purple lines) and breaking through short-term resistance R (which has now turned into support, as marked by the blue arrow). Support line S remains relevant.

Today brings the key event that may have the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) this week ? Jerome Powell?s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

This appearance is particularly significant because:
→ it is likely to be Powell?s last speech after seven years as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May amid ongoing tensions with President Trump;
→ market participants will closely monitor the tone of his remarks, as a rate cut is expected in September, while recent economic data ? namely the rise in the Producer Price Index ? suggest that the US economy could face renewed inflationary pressures due to Trump?s tariffs.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Start Recovery, Key Hurdles Ahead


AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6415. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above 0.5900 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6415 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.5830.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5870 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6415. The Aussie Dollar started a significant increase above 0.6425 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6568 swing high to the 0.6415 low. The pair even surpassed 0.6470 and settled above the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.6490. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.6520.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.