Ikhtiar Trading Jurnal

Posts: 20381 · #3406 - September 30, 2025, 10:59:50 AM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on September 29, 2025, 09:23:27 PM

Today I attempted to sell USDCAD with a stop-loss at 1.3924 and a take-profit at 1.3898. USDCAD on the M15 timeframe. Looking at the trend, the price moved significantly higher at the start of the movement, reaching a peak around 1.3950. However, selling pressure soon began to creep in, causing the price to gradually reverse downwards. The price's current position below the moving average further emphasizes that the short-term trend is starting to be dominated by sellers. The moving average, which previously supported the upward movement, has now transformed into dynamic resistance, exerting pressure on the price from above. As long as the price remains below this line, the bearish trend is dominant.

My open sell position on USDCAD today hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.01. USDCAD is currently trending sideways, but if it can break through the 200-day moving average (MA) and break through the resistance at 1.3938, there's a possibility it will continue to rise.

Posts: 20381 · #3407 - September 30, 2025, 11:02:08 AM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on September 29, 2025, 11:42:05 PM

Today I attempted to sell USDX with my stop-loss placed at 98.06 and take-profit at 97.79. USDX on the M15 timeframe. Looking at the price movement, the main trend visible on the chart is down. Initially, the price moved quite strongly upward, reaching a peak of around 98.50, but then significant selling pressure began to emerge. The price began forming lower highs and lower lows, a hallmark of a bearish trend. This selling pressure became more pronounced when the price broke below the red moving average line, which in this case can be considered a reference for the intermediate trend. The current price position below the moving average line indicates that sellers are still dominant.

My open sell position on USDX today hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.50. The USDX appears to be falling on the M15 timeframe and will likely continue to fall today, as the pattern shows no signs of resistance from buyers.

Posts: 20381 · #3408 - September 30, 2025, 11:06:56 AM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on September 29, 2025, 11:46:18 PM

Today I attempted to buy gold with a stop-loss order placed at 3817.82 and a take-profit order at 3842.20. On the M15 timeframe, the candlestick patterns on the chart clearly show bullish candles, especially during the sharp price increase phase in the middle to upper part of the chart. Large bullish candles indicate a strong push from buyers, which significantly boosted the price. After reaching the resistance level, the candles began to shrink, and some candles formed consolidation patterns, such as dojis or small-bodied candlesticks. This pattern indicates the market is experiencing a pause after a prolonged rally.

My open buy position on gold today hit take profit, netting me a profit of $13.14. On the M15 timeframe, gold appears to have experienced a significant correction, even reaching 3792.45. I believe gold could potentially fall further, as sellers have already entered the market.

#3409 - **Today** at 05:13:15 AM

Posts: 20381 · #3409 - September 30, 2025, 11:16:32 AM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on September 29, 2025, 11:55:28 PM

Today I attempted to sell USDJPY with a stop-loss at 148.78 and a take-profit at 148.33. On the M15 timeframe, USDJPY price movement predominantly formed small candles with relatively long upper tails. This phenomenon usually indicates selling pressure whenever the price attempts to rise. Candles with small bodies indicate market indecision, but because they are positioned at the bottom, the potential for further decline remains dominant. Furthermore, there are no significant reversal patterns such as a double bottom, a clear hammer, or a bullish engulfing pattern in the support area, so the chance of a reversal remains low. As long as there is no strong bullish formation, the most logical scenario is for the downtrend to continue.

My open sell position on USDJPY today hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.68. I believe USDJPY will likely continue to decline today, as there are no signs of resistance from buyers.

Posts: 20381 · #3410 - September 30, 2025, 11:19:54 AM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on September 29, 2025, 11:57:41 PM

Today I tried to sell USDCHF with my stop-loss placed at 0.7987 and take-profit at 0.7962. USDCHF on the M15 timeframe. From the price action perspective, we can see that after a sharp decline, the price entered a consolidation phase in the lower area around 0.7964. This consolidation indicates that the market is accumulating or awaiting new momentum. Typically, after a sideways phase like this, a continuation movement in the direction of the previous trend, namely downward, will occur. However, it's important to note that if the price fails to break through strong support below, a brief correction may occur before continuing the decline. Price action in this consolidation area must be closely monitored as it will be key to the next direction.

My open sell position on USDCHF today hit my take profit, earning me a profit of $1.26. Looking at the USDCHF movement on the 15 timeframe, it dropped to 0.7951 and successfully hit my take profit level of 0.7962.

Posts: 20381 · #3411 - October 02, 2025, 12:53:43 AM

Today I tried to buy EURUSD with my stop-loss placed at 1.1742 and take-profit at 1.1713. EURUSD on the M15 timeframe. From the candlestick patterns I saw, many candlesticks appeared with long tails at the top and bottom. This indicates market uncertainty or strong resistance between buyers and sellers. For example, when the price rose sharply, the candlesticks formed had long shadows at the top, indicating significant selling pressure after the price rose. Similarly, when the price fell, some candlesticks showed long tails at the bottom, indicating buyers' efforts to stem the decline.

Posts: 20381 · #3412 - October 02, 2025, 12:56:03 AM

Today I attempted to buy GBPUSD with my stop-loss placed at 1.3454 and take-profit at 1.3499. GBPUSD on the M15 timeframe. Looking at the trend, the price showed strong upward movement, especially when it successfully broke through the resistance area around 1.3470. This increase even brought the price to around 1.3520 before significant selling pressure triggered a downward correction. Currently, the price is moving back to around 1.3470, which previously served as an important breakout area. This pattern often indicates that the market is retesting a new support area formed after a breakout.

Posts: 20381 · #3413 - October 02, 2025, 12:58:10 AM

Today I attempted to sell the USDX with a stop-loss at 97.87 and a take-profit at 97.58. On the M15 timeframe, the USDX price has formed several candlesticks with long upper tails, especially when approaching the moving average line. This indicates a strong seller reaction whenever buyers try to push the price higher. Conversely, when the price falls to the lower area, candlesticks with long lower tails also appear, indicating buyers' attempts to stem further declines. This pattern confirms that the market is experiencing a power tug-of-war, but the underlying trend remains downward.

Posts: 20381 · #3414 - October 02, 2025, 01:00:22 AM

Today I tried to buy gold with a stop-loss at 3844.32 and a take-profit at 3876.20. Gold on the M15 timeframe. The candlestick pattern on the chart shows several candlesticks with long tails at the top after the price reached the peak, indicating strong selling pressure from sellers. However, as the price approached the moving average area, the candlesticks began to form shorter patterns with small bodies. This could be a sign of market indecision or the beginning of a potential reversal. If a strong bullish candlestick appears in this area, the buy signal would be more convincing.

Posts: 20381 · #3415 - October 02, 2025, 01:02:29 AM

Today I attempted to sell GBPJPY with my stop-loss placed at 198.60 and take-profit at 197.87. GBPJPY on the M15 timeframe. In the medium to short term, the movement pattern shows a series of fairly regular declines, with the price forming lower highs and lower lows. After the sharp decline, the price attempted to move up but was held back and returned to a consolidation area. Currently, the price is seen moving sideways around the 198.20?198.40 area. Consolidation below a moving average usually indicates that the market is gathering strength to continue the previous trend, in this case, a further decline is likely.

#3416 - **Today** at 05:13:15 AM

Posts: 20381 · #3416 - October 02, 2025, 01:05:03 AM

Today I attempted to buy USDCAD with a stop-loss order placed at 1.3928 and a take-profit order at 1.3967. USDCAD on the M15 timeframe. From the price action perspective, the area around 1.3930 appears to be a fairly strong support area. The price dropped several times near this level, but quickly rebounded. This indicates solid buying interest in the area. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance is around 1.3960 to 1.3970, which will be the closest target if buyers can maintain their momentum. If this resistance is broken with sufficient volume, the price could continue rising towards the 1.3990 area and even approach 1.4000, an important psychological level.

Posts: 20381 · #3417 - October 02, 2025, 01:07:42 AM

Today I attempted to sell EURJPY with my stop-loss placed at 172.86 and take-profit at 172.20. On the M15 timeframe, EURJPY clearly shows the market forming a base around 172.30 to 172.60. This area has become a consolidation zone after the previous sharp decline. If the price fails to break above and forms a solid bearish candlestick, the decline will likely continue towards lower support around 172.00 to 171.80. On the other hand, if there is an attempt to break above the 172.80 resistance, a further upward correction towards the 173.20 area could occur. However, this opportunity is more of a retracement than a true trend change.

Posts: 20381 · #3418 - October 02, 2025, 01:10:43 AM

Today I attempted to sell USDJPY with a stop-loss order placed at 147.51 and a take-profit order at 146.82. On the M15 timeframe, USDJPY formed a base or consolidated around 147.00 before attempting a rebound. The resulting increase appears more like a retracement within a downtrend, rather than a trend change. The candlestick structure shows several long upper shadows, indicating selling pressure reappears every time the price attempts to rise. Therefore, the chance of a continued bearish movement is still greater than the potential for a trend reversal. Strong resistance lies around 147.50 to 147.70, which currently serves as a major barrier for buyers.

Posts: 20381 · #3419 - October 02, 2025, 01:13:02 AM

Today I attempted to buy USDCHF with a stop-loss order placed at 0.7959 and a take-profit order at 0.7986. USDCHF on the M15 timeframe: Looking at the price action, the candlesticks in the last few hours have tended to form a horizontal consolidation pattern with a fairly narrow range. This indicates a phase of uncertainty, where buyers and sellers are still evenly matched in controlling price direction. The price surge, which briefly broke above the moving average, was only temporary, as it was immediately followed by selling pressure, pushing the price back down. However, the price has yet to break through the strong support level around 0.7950, making this support potentially key to determining the next direction.

Posts: 20381 · #3420 - October 02, 2025, 01:15:10 AM

Today I attempted to sell CADJPY with a stop-loss order placed at 105.79 and a take-profit order at 105.30. Technically, CADJPY candlestick formations over the past few hours are showing rejection in the upper area. The long shadows on the small bullish candlesticks indicate that every time the price attempts to rise, it is immediately met with selling pressure. This indicates that sellers are still actively maintaining their dominance, and buyers haven't yet gained enough momentum to push the price above resistance. Therefore, the probability of a decline remains quite strong as long as the price fails to break through the key level above.