FxOrtrader trading journal FXGlory

Opportunity is still supported by positive sentiment regarding Brexit talks, opportunities for GBPUSD strengthening need to consistently move above 1.3060 to target 1.3095 area. In addition, the release of UK manufacturing activity index data at 15.30 WIB could be a market concern.

Earlier, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union commented that cross-party talks about Brexit were very positive. The opposition also said that they would only support the second referendum to reach a good Brexit agreement. This implies that the European Union through Jeremy Corbyn will continue to support May to continue discussing Brexit.

After the strengthening that occurred yesterday, the chances of strengthening the GBPUSD seem to be limited. But if the negative dollar sentiment from the results of the FOMC announcement occurs, the GBPUSD is still likely to strengthen.

Support: 1.3010 - 1.2980 - 1.2960
Resistance: 1.3060 - 1.3095 - 1.3120

eurusd is now up again sir, testing 1.12700.

according to technical analysis I use EURUSD to test the 200 MA, which is at 1.13110

on TF wekly until the NFP is released tomorrow sir on Friday

MARKET MOVERS: TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENTS PASSED BY RISK AVERSION CENTIMENTS

US President Donald Trump's statement on Sunday will be a catalyst for financial markets at the start of trading this week where he will raise China's import tariffs to 25% ahead of the talks scheduled for the middle of this week. Volatility is likely to get even faster if the Chinese side gives a commensurate response to the statement.

Another focus will be on the release of the Caixin version of China's service index data at 8:45 WIB which could be another driver for the Australian dollar and the release of Eurozone retail sales data at 16:00 WIB which could trigger a movement in the euro currency.

Market Movers today
Movement Potential

Gold

Gold prices have a chance to move up in the short term in the middle of the market that responds to President Trump's statement that he will raise China's import tariff by 25% to test the resistance level at $ 1287 - $ 1292. Meanwhile if moving down the support level is at $ 1279 - $ 1277.

Oil

The continued dominance of global supply tightening sentiment due to US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and increasing crude oil reserves and US rig activity will likely trigger a decline in oil prices in the short term to test support at $ 60.20 - $ 59.70. If the price moves up, the resistance level is at $ 61.00 - $ 61.50.

EURUSD

Outlook is optimistic that Eurozone inflation data at the end of the week will have the opportunity to push up the EURUSD in the short term to test resistance at 1.1220 - 1.1270. However, EURUSD has the potential to move down to test the support at 1.1160 - 1.1110 if Euro zone retail sales data is released worse than estimated.

GBPUSD

Outlook Brexit uncertainty potentially will still burden GBPUSD movement in the short term to test the support at 1.3130 - 1.3080. Conversely, if moving up the resistance level is seen in the area of 1.3190 1.3240.

USDJPY

Increased demand for safe haven assets because new US-China tensions are likely to trigger a decline in the USDJPY in the short term to aim for support at 110.50 - 110.00. If it moves up, resistance levels are seen in the 111.10 - 111.60 area.

AUDUSD

The worsening sentiment of trade relations between the US and China after a controversial statement from President Trump has the potential to push down the AUDUSD in the short term to test the support at 0.6950 - 0.6900. If it moves up, the resistance level is at 0.7010 - 0.7060.

After the sharp strengthening that occurred at the end of trading last week, profit taking was seen in GBPUSD at the start of trading this week amid markets that are still waiting for the Brexit outlook that will occur on 31 October.

Media The Telegraph reported that British Prime Minister Theresa May was holding a hidden discussion to gain the dominance of votes from the opposition party. Then The Guardian media also reported that opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn might not be able to get full support from his party if the May agreement was too dominated by the European Union.

The absence of this positive outlook which has the potential to make GBPUSD still in a tendency to weaken. As long as the price moves below 1.3160, the downside potential of GBPUSD will test 1.3080. There have been no important data releases from the UK which can be the driving catalyst for GBPUSD today.

Support: 1.3080 - 1.3050 - 1.3030
Resistance: 1.3160 - 1.3190 - 1.3220

The Australian dollar has a chance to move in high volatility as the market will get a lot of important data such as retail sales and Australia's trade balance at 8:30 WIB and the Reserve Bank Australia's monetary decision at 11:30 WIB after yesterday weakened due to President Trump's statement threatening to raise import tariffs Chinese goods, Australia's biggest trade proxy.

Furthermore, from Europe, the release of data on German factory orders at 13:00 WIB and European Union economic estimates from the European Commission scheduled for 16:00 WIB potentially will move the euro currency after the recent weakening triggered by deteriorating economic fundamentals in the region. In the US session, speech by FOMC members Randal Quarles at 22:35 WIB will likely be a catalyst for the movement of the US dollar.

Market Movers today
Movement Potential

Gold

Gold prices have a chance to move down in the short term amid easing trade tensions between the US and China after Beijing said it would continue negotiations this week. With the closest support level at $ 1278 - $ 1273. But if it moves up, the resistance level is at $ 1286 - $ 1291.

Oil

Oil prices have the potential to maintain the upward trend amid the latest conflict between the US and Iran after Washington sent a number of military groups to the Middle East and Saudi Arabia which will raise June oil contract prices to consumers in Asia and Europe. The closest resistance level is at $ 62.60 - $ 63.10 and for the closest support level is at $ 61.80 - $ 61.30.

EURUSD

EURUSD has a chance to weaken in the short term amid sentiment of a stronger US dollar to test the support level at 1.1170 - 1.1120. But if it moves up, the resistance level is seen at 1.1230 - 1.1280. The market looks forward to German factory orders data at 1:00 p.m. and a European Union economic forecast at 4:00 p.m. to become a further euro currency catalyst.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has the potential to still move down in the short term as there is still no breakthrough in negotiations between PM Theresa May and opposition leaders in the Brexit discussion to test the support level seen in the 1.3060 - 1.3010 area. If it moves up, the resistance level is at 1.3120 - 1.3170.

USDJPY

USDJPY has a chance to move down in the short term amid sentiment on improving Japanese manufacturing index to test the support level at 110.45 - 110.00. However, if it moves up, the resistance level is seen at 111.05 - 111.50.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has a chance to move down in the short term, especially if Australian economic data such as retail sales and Australia's trade balance are released lower than expected and the RBA still maintains their dovish attitude to test the support level at 0.6960 - 0.6910. But if it moves up, the level of 0.7020 - 0.7070 will be a resistance level.