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CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

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- The increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth of net inflow to stablecoins signal a bullish momentum in the market. This conclusion was made by analysts of Bank of America. They noted the ?easing of pressure from sellers? with the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. The experts pointed to the stability of the trend despite the Fed's increase in the key rate by 0.75% at once.
Bank of America estimated the amount of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%.

- If bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. This is stated in the latest report from Arcane Research. A series of rising local lows has been forming on the chart since July. But ?if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.?
The company emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. ?Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,? the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue.

- On the contrary, Glassnode has doubted the continuation of bitcoin's recovery rally. The rise in prices of BTC and ethereum in recent days is not accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.
The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.
There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of ?held by long-term investors? (in other words, the ?age? of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- North Korean hackers plagiarize online resumes from legitimate LinkedIn and Indeed profiles to get remote jobs at US cryptocurrency companies. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to security specialists from Mandiant Inc. As a rule, North Koreans communicate actively on the profile site GitHub, pretending to be from other countries, ascribe to themselves specialization in the technology industry and extensive experience in software development. After getting a job, they are engaged in theft and laundering of illegally obtained digital assets. Naturally, the DPRK government denies any involvement in such crimes.

- The crypto analyst aka Dave the Wave, who correctly predicted the collapse of the crypto market in May 2021, is now talking about the approach of a bullish rally. The basis for this, according to him, are the signals of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, which was accurate to indicate the 300% BTC rally in 2019.
Dave the Wave noted that many traders are currently concerned about the uncertainty that is caused by macro-economic factors. However, in his opinion, these factors may not have such a strong impact on bitcoin as the market thinks. ?Despite macro factors, BTC is doing its job,? the analyst said optimistically.

- According to Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, the current structure of the bitcoin market indicates a bottoming out process. ?I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,? the investor said. ?But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. [?] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.?
Yusko agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is in the ?spring? part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next ?summer? bull run, which should occur shortly before the next halving (2024): ?In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun. If we look at the last two cycles, we see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.?
The head of Morgan Creek also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000.
Recall that Yusko said last year that the price of the asset could soar to $250,000 by 2026. He also suggested that the market cap of BTC will be equal to the market cap of gold, as this digital asset has become a ?perfect store of value? and is on its way to replacing the precious metal.

- Crypto trader and investor Bob Loukas agrees that halvings are driving market trends. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, in his opinion, could plunge into a ?true crypto winter? in 2026.
According to the Bob Lucas model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. ?In theory, bitcoin?s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows. Although, it?s hard to believe,? the investor said.
Recall that halving is a two-fold reduction in the reward to miners for a mined block in the blockchain embedded in the bitcoin code. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this amount decreased to 25 BTC on November 28, 2012, to 12.5 BTC on July 9, 2016, to 6.25 BTC on May 11, 2020. The next reward cut to 3.125 BTC is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000.

- According to the results of July, receipts in cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $474 million (the maximum since the beginning of the year), $81 million for the week from July 23 to July 29. The influx continued for the fifth week in a row. Such data is provided by CoinShares experts. On the other hand, trading activity remains low. The volume of transactions with crypto products at the end of the last reporting week amounted to $1.3 billion, which is almost half the average since the beginning of the year ($2.4 billion).

- Jurrien Timmer, a macroeconomist at one of the largest American holding companies Fidelity, said that bitcoin and ethereum are comparable in terms of their market share and level of dominance in crypto industry with such a tech giant as Apple. ?According to Metcalfe's law, the larger an ecosystem becomes, the more its value grows exponentially. Apple is an example. [...] The more iPhones and other devices it sells, the more exponentially it grows. And it grows until it becomes so powerful that a giant abyss forms around it, which cannot be overcome even if something much better than the iPhone is invented tomorrow,? the expert is sure.
Trimmer believes that other crypto projects will continue to compete with the two leading digital assets, but will not be able to win against the giant ecosystems of BTC and ETH.

- Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes the digital asset market has nearly bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. ?I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,? said the CEO of Pantera Capital.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#91 - August 03, 2022, 11:03:10 AM

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- Bitcoin Core team member Matt Corallo called the maximalists of the first cryptocurrency an ?endangered species? and urged them to stop attacking other projects. According to him, the ?most vocal proponents? are attacking other communities counterproductively instead of promoting the ?greatness and uniqueness? of digital gold. In his opinion, in the context of the current policy of confronting projects in the crypto community, many of the Ethereum community (as with Ripple before) will begin to set regulators against bitcoin, relying on ecology.

- Law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan conducted a special operation, as a result of which the gang that controlled cryptominers was neutralized. 23 people were detained during several raids.  Weapons, black bookkeeping, as well as more than 6,000 items of mining equipment worth about $7 million were seized during the searches. It is reported that the criminals made a profit of $300-500 thousand per month due to the activities of the mining farms under their control.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs worldwide has increased to 39,015, according to the Coin ATM Radar service. The figure was 25,154 a year ago. The United States holds the leading position by a wide margin: 87.9% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs are concentrated there. Canada ranks second with 6.3%.

? Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. This was stated by Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. ?The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,? he explained.
The analyst emphasized the high importance of the stock market, with which bitcoin shows a noticeable correlation, and mentioned the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urged not to try to fight the Fed.

- Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

- An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). ?PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."
The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: ?Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.?
And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities, prominent figures from Central banks and a number of other sectors discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.
These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. ?If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.?

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, said that bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $30,000 anytime soon. He noted in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not observe an influx of institutional investors into the first cryptocurrency at the moment. The billionaire himself ?would be happy? if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.
(Note that a recent survey of institutional investors by Cumberland showed that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year.)
As for ethereum, Mike Novogratz believes that this altcoin could reach the $2,200 mark, given the momentum leading up to the upgrade to change the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected in end of September.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the market has not yet taken into account the upcoming transition of the network to Proof-of-Stake, which should take place in September. ?Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,? he said. ?In my opinion, [?] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.?

- The World Tourism Organization at the UN has included El Salvador in its list. According to the President of the country Nayib Bukele, it was bitcoin that helped the significant growth of the tourism industry. The head of state stressed that only a few countries managed to return tourism indicators to pre-pandemic levels. The adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, as well as the creation of a "bitcoin beach", has attracted tourists from all over the world to El Salvador. The President also noted the growth of domestic tourism due to the decrease in crime. Nayib Bukele presented statistics from the search giant Google: El Salvador is marked on the map as a country with "higher than expected" tourist activity.
Morena Valdez, Minister of Tourism of El Salvador, said earlier that tourism in the country has grown by 30% thanks to bitcoin. At the same time, cryptocurrency enthusiasts stay in El Salvador for a longer period and spend more money. If the daily expenses of a tourist in the country ranged from $113 to $150 earlier, they exceed $200 now.

- The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, a popular crypto analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds into cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC rate to $773,000.
?If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,? the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

- According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. ?I think we've already seen the worst. There's still a little more to go, but it's not that bad,? said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. ?Some bitcoin miners might have some problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.?
However, the SBF?s spring forecast was not without a ?but?: ?If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in a recession for two and a half years [?], bitcoin could drop to $15,000 or $10,000,? said the CEO of FTX.
The crypto winter froze a number of once-thriving companies such as Three Arrows Capital, Terraform Labs and Voyager Digital, but FTX survived the cold. Commenting on the incident, its head said that the recession "became a healthy weed" for the industry.

- Despite the decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency in 2022, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC and more is growing steadily (+9.4% since the beginning of the year). The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with balances of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months.
This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. Analytical resource The Balance posted a report stating that 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies. According to the author of the report, these Americans are looking for new areas of investment to maintain their savings amid economic uncertainty. Among millennials and Gen Z investors (aged 41 and younger), almost 50% prefer cryptocurrencies. Among investors of generation X and older, they are just under a third.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#92 - August 10, 2022, 04:24:37 PM

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- Charles Edwards, the founder of the Capriole Investments crypto fund, came to the conclusion based on the data of the Difficulty Feed indicator that the surrender period of bitcoin miners has passed. This, he said, is "a great signal to buy." According to his observations, the last phase of surrender is the third longest in history (71 days). It is longer than in 2021, but two days shorter than in 2018. ?Historically, the surrender of bitcoin miners recorded major price lows and served as excellent buy signals,? Edwards said.

- Meltem Demirs, Strategy Director at CoinShares, spoke of what awaits the two top coins at the end of Q3. According to her, now there is a summer lull in the crypto market, as a significant part of people do not trade actively during the holidays. But despite this, ?we have seen a lot of buying on drawdowns with regard to BTC. There is capital willing to accumulate bitcoin.?
Demirors does not expect a significant increase in the price of bitcoin until the end of September: ?Until the end of the 3rd quarter, BTC does not have catalysts that could contribute to growth. It is highly dependent now on macroeconomics, which was observed in the example of a significant correlation with the shares of companies in the technology sector.?
As for ethereum, the CoinShares strategist believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: ?While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely it will be on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.? (Recall that the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20.?

- For the first time since summer 2020, the average cost of a transaction in the BTC network has become less than $1, thus expanding the possibilities of using the asset as a means of payment. The need to pay significant fees when transferring small funds caused inconvenience and dissatisfaction among users. Previously, BTC transactions were slow and expensive, but improvements like the Lightning Network and Taproot give hope that this situation will never happen again. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions has decreased to $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020.

- Analyst Justin Bennett warned that BTC could face another sell-off. According to him, bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support level, which has kept the bullish sentiment over the past few months, and now the situation resembles a correction in May-June this year. ?Bitcoin is currently looking almost identical to what we have seen a couple of times over the past few months, and it is moving below the bear flag.? According to Bennett, the BTC rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.
Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bennett believes that bitcoin?s reaction at $19,000 should determine its behavior for the rest of the year: ?The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or if we get lower lows for the rest of the year.?
Crypto analyst and trader Neko believes the $21,700 level is key for bitcoin as it is the combined average breakeven of all bitcoin holders.

- Bitcoin on-chain activity has reached the same levels as at the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. This opinion was expressed by Glassnode analysts. However, despite the signs of the end of the ?crypto winter?, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. ?Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,? Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its average size has fallen below $1.
Despite this, the current consolidation phase of the bottom of the cycle is ?most likely,? according to Glassnode. According to experts, it is at the current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth. However, the coin is still trading in the middle of the corrective pattern that has been present since June 18, and the further direction of the trend remains unclear.

- The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure in recent months, however, according to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, bitcoin is entrenched in the financial system forever. The specialist is sure that the first cryptocurrency will show significant growth in the coming years. Cryptocurrency platform Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors, and their interest in the market is only growing, according to Michael.

- JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of "something worse than a recession" in the US economy, with a 20-30% chance of this happening, which is a lot. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of a worsening recession, with which World Bank President David Malpass agrees. ?The global economy is in danger again,? the financier says. ?It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.?
Members of the crypto community tend to interpret these statements as a growth factor for the crypto market. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, believes that the price of bitcoin could rise to $300,000 over the next 12-24 months. At the same time, the same Anthony Scaramucci said that bitcoin is still ?not mature enough? to be considered a full-fledged hedging asset. The capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is now at around $410 billion, which, of course, is not enough to hedge the inflation of the world's major economies.

- Entrepreneur Kim Dotcom believes that a strong drop would be good for the cryptocurrency market, as it would lead to the exit of most speculators who are focused only on making money on short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. In his opinion, the crypto sphere will get a ?second wind? when digital assets will be perceived by participants precisely as financial instruments with great potential. Dotcom also spoke about the future of the global economy. In his opinion, the US will not cope with the burden of its financial problems, and the US dollar will depreciate greatly.
For reference: Kim Dotcom is a German-Finnish entrepreneur, the former owner of the largest file hosting service Megaupload, the owner of the new file sharing service Mega from January to September 2013. Kim Dotcom was sentenced in Germany for using insider information. He was arrested on January 19, 2012 in New Zealand at the request of the FBI, but was released on bail on February 22.

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen expressed his opinion on what could be the most negative scenario for ethereum. ?In my opinion,? the expert says, ?this is the logarithmic regression band, which signals a possible area of ?$400-$800. I think it is worth considering this opportunity as a great option for savings.?
At the same time, Cowen also noted the possibility of ETH moving in the other direction: ?At the same time, ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary politics."

- Unknown hackers broke into the settings of General Bytes bitcoin ATMs on August 18, with the help of which they were able to transfer cryptocurrencies deposited through devices to their wallet. The incident was confirmed by company representatives. According to experts, the hackers "scanned open servers, including those hosted in the General Bytes cloud service." They added themselves as administrator from there. The hackers then proceeded to change the ?buy? and ?sell? settings so that any cryptocurrencies received by the bitcoin ATM would go to their wallet. General Bytes added that previous security checks had not revealed this vulnerability.
For reference: General Bytes owns and operates 8,827 Bitcoin ATMs in over 120 countries. The company headquarters is in Prague, Czech Republic. ATM customers can buy or sell over 40 different cryptocurrencies.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#93 - August 24, 2022, 05:03:34 PM

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- A covert mining campaign has allegedly infected thousands of computers in 11 countries around the world with malware. The company is associated with Turkish software developer Nitrokod, which has been active since 2019. The company offers supposedly free programs, the official desktop versions of which do not exist. This was reported by experts at Check Point Research (CPR).
The attackers installed covert mining utilities into free apps based on popular services like Google Translate or YouTube Music. The popularity of the underlying source ensured high positions in the search results. The software is distributed through well-known free software platforms like Softpedia or uptodown.
Attackers managed to go unnoticed for a long time due to the complex and multi-stage infection. The hidden module for installing the mining utility was activated only a few weeks after installing the program on the computer.
The malware injection process was divided into six time-separated stages, disguised as updates. At all stages, the installer removed traces in the logs, making it difficult to detect.

- With the exception of a few dozen tokens, most of the crypto assets on the market are ?junk?, and the real options for using digital currencies are underdeveloped. This opinion was expressed by Umar Farooq, the head of the Onyx blockchain division of the financial conglomerate JPMorgan. He noted that regulation has lagged behind the growth of the industry. This deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market.
The CEO of Onyx also believes that the technologies of the crypto industry are not mature enough to be used, for example, to conduct high-value transactions between institutions or to place such products as tokenized bank deposits.

- The turnover of cryptocurrency investment products ($901 million) fell to the lowest level since October 2020 from August 20 to 26, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. Such estimates were given by CoinShares analysts. ?While [?] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects, we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. It seems to us that caution is associated with the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed,? the experts explained.

- Bitcoin is ?a purely speculative asset with no utility,? due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it ?one of the worst cryptocurrencies?. ?The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn?t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,? Bons explained.
?The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.? ?People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,? the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

- Analyst Justin Bennett decided to warn crypto investors of a possible sharp correction. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: ?The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.?
?BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,? the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.? According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.
Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the ?head and shoulders? pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: ?The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH?s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.?

- A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. ?Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token?s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,? Bloomberg said in their report.
Ethereum has been largely outperforming bitcoin lately as sentiment in the ETH community remains optimistic due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the recent unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

- CryptoQuant experts note that the fall in the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 threshold woke up the ?ancient? bitcoin wallets that were active 7-10 years ago. Historically, a surge in the activity of such wallets happens when the first cryptocurrency makes unprotected movements or reaches long-awaited targets or support levels. Amid the panic in the cryptocurrency market, long-term holders can join the sellers and start dumping their holdings to avoid further losses. This trend is usually one of the first signs of capitulation among investors.
It is reported that 5,000 bitcoins are currently in motion from 10-year-old addresses. Despite the significance of the transaction, this is a relatively small volume. Similar wallets have Previously activated up to 100,000 BTC in a short period, creating huge pressure on the market. But even with a larger amount, there is no reason to panic, since the transfer can only be a redistribution of funds. During periods of high volatility, whales tend to spread their assets across different wallets in order to manage them more efficiently.

- According to Steve Huffman, CEO of Reddit, there are a lot of incomprehensible and useless terms in the cryptocurrency market. Because of this, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand for both experienced and novice traders and investors.
As Steve Huffman pointed out, almost no one in his company uses specific cryptocurrency terminology. It is incomprehensible to customers, completely confusing them. In his opinion, all this hype with complex terms that developers use only hides their illiteracy and misunderstanding of the cryptocurrencies basics.
The reason is probably that the crypto market is becoming more and more like a classic stock market. As a result, bureaucratization, expressed in incomprehensible terms, begins to dominate more and more. Many regulators from different countries introduce their own rules, developers try to show that they are smarter than competitors, startups write white papers so that investors can see that they understand all the intricacies. And it is almost impossible to read the laws dedicated to cryptocurrencies, they are so overloaded with mysterious terminology.

- Jordan Belfort, former stockbroker, commonly known as ?The Wolf of Wall Street?, has admitted that his initial bitcoin zero prediction was wrong. ?At the time, I really hated cryptocurrencies and I confirm everything I said about them in 2017, except for one thing: I was wrong about bitcoin zeroing out. Here I lacked attention, because it seemed to me that all digital assets are a scam,? Belfort said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
The crypto winter of 2018 changed his mind. Moreover, the former stockbroker said that he came to understand that bitcoin harbors the qualities of digital gold. In his opinion, if cryptocurrencies are regulated, it is likely that BTC will start trading as a store of value, and not as growth stocks.

- John Wu, the head of the Avalanche (AVAX) platform, believes that despite the fall in the cryptocurrency market due to the correlation with stock assets, crypto investors expect ?cosmic profits?. ?The market needs to understand that in the crypto-asset space, investors will receive more than the average return on the market, the so-called alpha. There are very good reasons for this. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen, but stablecoins have not. This suggests that many investors hold them and are ready to deploy stablecoins in the market.?

- Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary questions bitcoin's ability to rise above the $25,000 price level under the current conditions. O'Leary has drawn attention to the fact that the price of bitcoin is stagnating, as there is no regulation that allows institutional investors to invest in this sector. And without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class.
?You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,? says O'Leary. ?People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it. But I believe that we will get the regulation within the next two or three years. And then, finally, we will be able to achieve institutional participation.?


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#94 - August 31, 2022, 03:14:53 PM

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- Inflation in the US in August that was published on September 13, has amounted to 8.3%. Although this is less than the previous indicator of 8.5%, the figures have not lived up to market expectations. The forecast had assumed a decline to 8.1%. Market participants decided that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates in such a situation. It is expected that the rate will rise by at least another 0.75% next week. As a result, against this background, the dollar began to rise sharply, and risky assets, including bitcoin and ethereum, started to fall. BTC fell below $20,000, ETH fell below $1,550.

- Analysts recorded the largest outflow of funds from crypto funds since June. According to CoinShares, it amounted to $63 million from September 03 to September 09 against $8.7 million a week earlier. Over the past five weeks, the cumulative withdrawal of funds from cryptocurrency products amounted to $99 million. Trade turnover (~$1 billion) was 46% below the average for this year.
The outflow from Ethereum funds continued for the third week in a row at even higher rates ($61.6 million vs. $2.1 million a week earlier). Analysts attributed this to investors' fears about possible problems of The Merge scheduled for September 15.

- The transition of the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will not solve the problems of scalability or high fees, but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. This opinion was expressed by analysts of Bank of America (BofA).
?The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking [?] could also drive institutional adoption,? BofA admitted.

- A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.
The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be, filbfilb emphasized.
The expert called the rally of bitcoin in the Q1 2023 "obvious". He sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming Merge on the ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, filbfilb has not ruled out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to the merge.

- Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. ?A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.?
The trader noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. ?Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,? Rekt Capital writes. ?But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.?

- Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He noted that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin, but it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. ?A significant part of investors are wondering if the current levels are the low of the cycle. It is likely, but it is also worth noting that these levels are a good option for accumulating BTC for the long term. Everyone has seen bitcoin bounce around $19,000 several times, Rager writes. In addition, the analyst believes that the coin is still highly correlated with the S&P 500 index. And therefore, we will not see new cycle lows as long as it is above 3,896 points.

- The dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

- Despite the depreciation of BTC, MicroStrategy intends to continue the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks.
Earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO to focus on the company's plans to acquire BTC. MicroStrategy has grown its holdings of bitcoin under his leadership, making it the largest corporate holder of the asset. It currently owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

- Eugene Fama, American economist, and Nobel Prize winner in 2013, believes that the first cryptocurrency will only have value if it is used as money. However, according to the scientist, the viability of bitcoin as a means of payment is greatly reduced due to its high volatility. ?Monetary theory says that a unit of account will not survive unless it has a sufficiently stable real value. Its real price should not rise and fall sharply,? the Nobel laureate believes.
Fama disagrees with the claim that BTC is a store of value. According to him, the idea that bitcoin has value should be considered a temporary phenomenon. ?There has to be something really useful in the product so that people want to keep it for a very long time. But bitcoin has nothing that gives it value other than the investors who hold it. [?] So bitcoin will collapse at some point,? the economist says.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, does not agree with Eugene Fama. He noted during his interview at the SALT conference that he is optimistic about the immediate prospects for the crypto-currency industry. In his opinion, many digital currencies can demonstrate their practical value in the foreseeable future. Novogratz also focused on the fact that the actions of market participants are formed taking into account the general rhetoric regarding a particular crypto project, and not its real functionality.
The expert added that BlackRock's entry into the crypto industry can be considered a monumental event that can have a significant impact on the entire segment in the future. Recall that BlackRock, Inc. is one of the world largest investment companies and the largest in the world in terms of assets.

- According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll, 70% of US crypto investors hope to become billionaires. Harris Poll interviewed 1,900 Americans from all age groups. Those who claim that cryptocurrencies can bring them billions are mostly millennials or generation Z. Analysts emphasized that American youth do not trust traditional financial instruments, while digital currencies, on the contrary, are becoming more and more attractive to them.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#95 - September 14, 2022, 02:26:01 PM

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- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy purchased an additional 301 BTC for $6 million. This is stated in the report submitted to the SEC. Michael Saylor, founder and ex-CEO of the company, said that purchases were made between August 2 and September 19 at an average price of $19,851 per BTC. MicroStrategy's previous investment in the first cryptocurrency took place in June: the firm purchased 480 BTC worth about $10 million.
MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries currently own 130,000 BTC, purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,638 per coin. Thus, unrealized losses on this investment exceed $1.5 billion.

- The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve has led to the emergence of "tumors" like bitcoin. This was stated by the philosopher and author of the cult work ?Black Swan? Nassim Taleb. ?I believe we had 15 years [?] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,? he said, calling for a return to ?normal economic life.?

- Willy Woo, a well-known bitcoin investor and analyst, believes that the BTC rate is being held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. ?Futures markets can control the BTC rate,? the investor says. ?CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.?
Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: ?Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now.?

- Nicholas Merten, an analyst and founder of DataDash, believes that after BTC's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $19,000, it will fall to $14,000. In his opinion, this is influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors.
Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is struggling to rise above this level.
Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. ?$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.?
As for ethereum, Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.
The decline is facilitated by the actions of the Fed, whose hawkish monetary policy caused the collapse of the cryptocurrency and stock markets in 2022. Despite the potential dangers to the economy, Merten does not expect the US Central Bank to stop raising rates until a confident victory over inflation.

- An analyst with the nickname DonAlt believes that BTC will update the lows of 2022 against the backdrop of weak stock market performance. He predicts a fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and a new cycle low. ?It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.? ?My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,? DonAlt writes. ?It looks like this index is in for a serious drop and a return to support at 3680.?

- The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market is unlike any before it as the Fed is running the ship this time around. Ethereum has fallen by about 15% since September 15, the completion date for The Merge update. Bitcoin has fallen by about 3% over the same period.
Ethereum?s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin?s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been ?factored into the price? of ETH, and ?the actual event has become a ?news selling? situation.
Traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, ?as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.? At the same time, the specialist believes that any ?change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates? could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

- Investors are wondering if ethereum?s regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case, the coin will attract close attention of the SEC.

- Takis Georgakopoulos, head of the payments division at JPMorgan investment bank, said that customer demand for cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past six months. Most likely, the situation is related to the fall of the crypto market, which dragged on for several months. More than $2 trillion has disappeared from the market. Well-known companies working with digital assets are on the verge of bankruptcy. For example, Celsius and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July due to lack of liquidity.
Recall that JPMorgan strategists recommended at the end of August that investors focus not on cryptocurrencies, but on stocks and long-term bonds until the economic situation stabilizes.

- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Mike McGlone is convinced that market signals indicate that the value of bitcoin is growing. The expert compared the current fall in cryptocurrency quotes with the fall of the NASDAQ index in 2002 and subsequent stable growth over a long period of time. Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin will benefit from a "new chapter in the economy" in which speculation is driven by more than just how much money the Fed is printing. ?The days when unsustainable companies could exist are over. Now, if a business doesn't work, it's sinking. And this is good, because now that the market has cleared after a wave of bankruptcies, it is open to solid business,? he said.

- Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge complained at a meeting of the Kenyan Parliament that even in his inner circle there are many people who are trying to convince him to convert reserves countries into bitcoins. The official called the idea insane. And he added that if the country takes the path of legalizing bitcoin, he will oppose it, even under the threat of going to jail. ?Can cryptocurrencies be called the best means for making settlements and payments? Are cryptocurrencies safer than a bank account? The answer is no," the governor of the Kenyan Central Bank said.
It is worth noting here that many Central Banks like to keep their reserves in gold bars. And according to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. So the idea under discussion might not be that crazy.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#96 - September 21, 2022, 03:15:49 PM

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- Analysts have estimated the ?painful? breakeven threshold for miners at $18,300. According to Glassnode's calculations, 78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if the price of bitcoin goes below this price, which follows from the mining difficulty regression model. This value is slightly higher than the June low of $17,840.
Against the background of price stability, mining metrics are improving, which is a signal that the situation will improve in the coming months. In particular, the hash rate reached a record 242 EH/s. The growth of computing power is due to the introduction of the most efficient ASIC devices. This confirms the dynamics of revenue per EH/s (4.06 BTC). In dollar terms, it ranges from $78,000-$88,000. The last time such values were observed was after the halving in October 2020, when bitcoin was worth half what it is now (~$10,000).
The balances of miners, which account for 96% of the current hash rate, have 78,400 BTC, the maximum number of coins that can increase sales in case of stress for this category of market participants. At the moment, most of the sales are carried out by miners associated with the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company admitted that there were problems with liquidity.
Glassnode experts also noted a growing likelihood of increased volatility after a long period of consolidation in the $18,000-20,000 range.

- McDonald's restaurant chain has started accepting BTC payments in Lugano, Switzerland. Back in March, Lugano authorities announced that they would make digital gold, USDT, and the city's LVGA token "de facto" legal tender. The decision was the development of an initiative to turn the city into the ?Bitcoin Capital of Europe?.

- Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestseller Rich Dad, Poor Dad, called the strengthening of the US dollar an excellent opportunity to buy the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets. ?Buy more. When the Fed turns around and cuts interest rates, you will smile while others cry,? he said.

- George Soros' former Quantum associate, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, predicted a revival of digital assets amid the collapse of the fiat-based economy. He said this at the CNBC conference. The financier expects a "hard landing" of the economy in 2023 against the backdrop of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
In his opinion, quantitative easing and low rates led to bubbles in financial markets. These factors have not only been stopped now, but reversed. The Fed has begun cutting its $9 trillion balance and has already managed to raise the key rate five times to 3.25%, expecting its peak at 4.60%. ?You don?t even need to talk about black swans to start worrying,? the billionaire said. In his opinion, if confidence in the actions of central banks is lost, cryptocurrencies ?will play a big role in the revival?.

- Unlike global investors, ordinary people look at what is happening a little differently. The collapse in the crypto assets market forced not only the older generation, but also young people to reconsider their attitude towards them. The financial company Bankrate conducted a survey, according to which, the number of Americans who were comfortable investing in digital money has dropped sharply.
Millennials, who had previously been considered most open to new technologies, have lost confidence in cryptocurrencies more than others. The percentage of young people for whom cryptocurrencies were a convenient investment method fell from 49% in 2021 to 29% in 2022. People between the ages of 40 and 55 are losing trust in digital assets as well. Over the year, this figure fell from 37% to 21%. Among the older generation, the figure fell from 21% to 11%.
?It's much easier to invest enthusiastically in something when you see its value constantly increasing,? says Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate. ?A real test of the faith happens when the market falls, and what you fervently believed until recently ceases to be profitable. Recent movements have forced many to reconsider their attitude towards the digital asset market radically.?

- Some different data was provided by The Block. According to their calculations, despite the global bearish trend, the number of active investors in the bitcoin network continues to grow. This trend is due to the serious economic crisis in Europe, against the background of which retailers are increasingly investing in the main cryptocurrency in order to diversify risks. According to The Block, the number of investors in the bitcoin ecosystem has grown by 4.5 million since January 1, 2022.
It is noteworthy that the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC reached an all-time high of 10.7 million this month. About 47% of holders remain in profit, despite the flagship cryptocurrency's prolonged drawdown relative to its historical maximum.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggested that a reversal could form in the stock market in October. The expert also stressed that the Fed's policy is likely to remain aggressive. And there are no clear signs so far that the US department is ready to cut interest rates, as such a drastic move would harm efforts to combat inflation. However, the expert did not rule out that the regulator may re-initiate the quantitative easing procedure at some point in order to stabilize the market situation.
The head of Galaxy Digital believes that bitcoin looks quite stable in the current macroeconomic conditions, and that BTC will still be able to reach $500,000 within a few years.

- Unlike many optimists, cryptocurrency strategist and trader Cantering Clarke expects BTC to crash to five-year lows amid stock market weakness. According to his calculations, bitcoin could fall by almost 40% from current levels if the S&P 500 stock index resumes its bearish trend. ?If the S&P 500 drops to the next major area between 3,200-3,400 [pips], I think the correct assumption is that the crypto crash will be 2-3 times greater. This means at least that BTC will re-test the largest protrusion in five years: about $12,000-13,000,? the trader warns.
However, in the short term, he believes bitcoin bulls could bring back some confidence to the market if they manage to gain a foothold above $20,000. ?If we can break these local highs, I think BTC will see some momentum,? Cantering Clark predicts.

- Social media users are vigorously discussing the fact that October 7 will be a key day for the cryptocurrency market this week. The fact is that the US authorities will announce updated data on unemployment and wages in the non-agricultural sector of the country this Friday. Employment and CPI data will signal how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in November.
Experts are clearly divided on the future of the industry. Some of them predict a rapid growth in the exchange rate of the flagship cryptocurrency and altcoins due to the geopolitical situation in the world. Others, on the contrary, predict a protracted crisis. In their opinion, the industry will face a crypto winter in the next few years, so there is no point in waiting for prices to rise.

- According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, failure to regulate cryptocurrencies could harm the entire US financial system. According to her, this industry, left without regulation, is fraught with risks, although they do not pose a ?real threat? to financial stability so far.
A true cascade of defaults and bankruptcies in the crypto industry has led firms like Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows to file for bankruptcy and prevent clients from withdrawing funds. We can recall the fall of the Luna token and the Terra stablecoin associated with it. All this led to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to increase its focus on the digital asset market by doubling its crypto division staff in May. And SEC chief Gary Gensler even called this entire industry the ?Wild West?.

- Increased regulation of cryptocurrencies is often frowned upon by crypto investors, and the threat of such increased regulation has often been a bearish factor for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the US futures market, believes that proper regulation could have a powerful bullish effect on the price of BTC.
CFTC chief Rostin Behnam explained that a clear regulatory framework could help increase the number of institutional investors. According to him, ?these incumbent institutions in the crypto space see a huge opportunity for an institutional influx that will only happen if a regulatory structure is put in place around this market.? Behnam also noted that the bill submitted to the US Senate would make the CFTC the main regulator of the crypto industry, expanding the commission's powers and requiring crypto firms to register with the CFTC.

- The founder and CEO of The Birb Nest brand Ardian Zdunczyk shared his thoughts on bitcoin and what cryptocurrency can expect in the last quarter of the year. He noted that historically the fourth quarter was successful for BTC, and it would be interesting to see if the leader of the crypto market can repeat the previous successes. Zdunczyk cited historical data, proving that investors can expect good returns over the next two months. True, he made a reservation that no one would give guarantees.
Another argument in favor of the pre-New Year rally is the fact that the coins have risen slightly compared to their 200-day trends. Unlike fiat currencies that show roller coasters, bitcoin is stable in the range of $19,000 to $20,000. And now all markets are waiting for stability. They are already tired of the recession, the fall in company shares, the IMF's gloomy forecasts, and the ill-conceived policies of the Central Banks. Therefore, against such a background, bitcoin is becoming more and more attractive.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#97 - October 05, 2022, 04:39:13 PM

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- Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. ?I still have a small bitcoin investment,? Jones noted. According to this Wall Street King, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable ?at some point? because of too much money.
Jones pointed to the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It was quite simple until 2018, but the regulator ?went too far with quantitative easing? two years later to support the economy, and then changed its strategy drastically. ?Inflation is a bit like toothpaste,? the famous trader explained. "Once you squeeze it out of the tube, it will be difficult to put it back. The Fed is furiously trying to wash that taste out of their mouths. [?] If we go into a recession, it will have a really negative impact on a range of assets.?

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks ?a strong tailwind.?
He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

- A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.
Dave the Wave also notes that the MACD momentum indicator may indicate soon if BTC has hit the market bottom. ?The recent local downtrend is now equal to the previous uptrend. A monthly closure with a strength/contraction histogram will contribute to a significant assumption [if not confirmation] of the bottom.?

- Google has announced that it will soon start accepting payments for subscriptions to its own cloud services in cryptocurrency. This was reported by the CNBC news agency. The partner of the IT giant is the Coinbase crypto exchange. It is noted that Google will accept 10 types of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and even Dogecoin. The feature will become available in early 2023. At the first stages, only ?a few corporate clients in the world? will be able to pay Google with cryptocurrency. However, a much larger number of Google users will later access it.
According to CNBC, Coinbase will receive a commission on each transaction, the amount of which has not yet been disclosed. However, it is noted that as part of the partnership, Coinbase will abandon Amazon's cloud infrastructure in favor of a similar solution from Google.

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin's current low price volatility will begin to increase in the second half of October, after US inflation data is released. Together with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, it will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market.
The next important point is early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. The probability of this is estimated above 90% at the Chicago CME Group. If so, according to JP Morgan, the S&P 500 index, which has lost 24.21% since the start of the year, faces a new collapse of about 20%. Thus, investors will be able to receive less than $56 out of the $100 dollars that they invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies.
Bitcoin's price is sure to react to such a move in the US stock market, but how? Opinions differ here. Wall Street stock prices, like any other risky asset measured in USD, are under pressure that the dollar DXY index is rising and is now reaching its highest level since May 2002 (113 points). However, the correlation of cryptocurrencies with the stock market is not stable: it either rises or falls. And it will become clear in the foreseeable future whether bitcoin can become a hedge asset against the risk of unwinding global inflation at this stage.

- Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.
According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.
?There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,? said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. ?This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,? says the financier. ?You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.?

- An experienced cryptocurrency market expert Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins, shared a model that reflects the dynamics of bitcoin (BTC) prices in previous bear cycles. He studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.
The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower.
He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.
Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability over the past months. In addition to BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3.

- According to the analytical cryptocurrency platform Santiment, large bitcoin holders have increased their BTC savings by 46.173 coins (about $929 million) since September 27.
The list of so-called whales includes owners of addresses that store between 100 and 10,000 bitcoins. Analysts stressed that such activity by large coin holders is very rare this year. Apparently, bitcoins were bought with USDT stablecoins: the the latter's stocks in whales' wallets have fallen significantly.
It is quite possible that large holders expect the crypto market to grow. Indeed, bitcoin has been trading along the Power Point $20,000 for several weeks now, and this is an accumulation phase that should give way to an up phase. At the same time, 45.72% of all available bitcoins were stored on whale wallets at the end of September: this is the lowest figure in the last 29 months.
It has been repeatedly said that the fall in digital and other risky assets is associated with an increase in base rates by regulators in the United States and other world leading economies. However, financial analysts expect the Central banks of these countries to start cutting rates to combat the economic recession. This should push the price of bitcoin up.

- The bitcoin consolidation near the $20,000 level continues, and one of the tools used to determine the possible movement of the price of BTC is the Blockchain Center?s rainbow price chart. It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset.
In the long term, the chart indicates that bitcoin could hit six figures at $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the ?maximum bubble territory? then, marked in dark red.
Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price of about $19,500 is estimated to be in the ?Main Sale? zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin?s ?HODL? status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.
The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
#98 - October 12, 2022, 06:57:08 PM

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 17 - 21, 2022


EUR/USD: Market, Are You Crazy?

Throughout the first half of the week, EUR/USD moved sideways along the 0.9700 horizon as markets waited for the release of US inflation data. And it was on Thursday, October 14 that the Department of Labor Statistics of the country published fresh values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which exceeded the forecast values. In monthly terms, the September CPI reached 0.6% against the forecast of 0.5%, in annual terms - 6.6% against the forecast of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%.

The first reaction of the markets was quite expected. The DXY dollar index soared to 113.94 points (the highest value since September 28, when a 20-year high of 114.79 points was reached), the yield of 10-year treasuries updated a 14-year high, reaching 4.08%, and EUR/USD reached the level 0.9630. Risky asset quotes associated with the dollar by reverse correlation went down. The S&P500 index fell by 2.4% and updated its 2-year low. Dow Jones, Nasdaq and crypto assets behaved in a similar way.

But something extraordinary happened in less than one hour: all the markets, as if going crazy, turned 180 degrees all of a sudden. Moreover, for no apparent reason.

The dollar began to lose its positions rapidly: DXY fell to 112.46, and EUR/USD broke through 0.9800. On the contrary, the S&P500 was positive by the end of Thursday and grew by 2.6%. Analysts cite the strong oversold stock market as the main reason for this change in sentiment and the sharp increase in risk appetites. It is believed that stocks lose about 30% during recessions. At this stage, the S&P500 is down 27.5% during 2022. Therefore, some investors have decided that the bottom has already been reached or will be reached soon, and it is time to start buying. A large number of put options have recently been bought in the US market, on which profit-taking took place, and the freed fiat was used to purchase risky assets.

Despite the events of the past week, market opinion regarding the further increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve has not changed. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the US will face a "perfect storm" of problems: a combination of debt, political infighting, and conflict abroad. But at the same time, despite the threat of a recession, the Fed will have no other choice to beat inflation.

The market has no doubts that the key rate will be increased by 75 basis points (bp) at the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on November 2. The largest North American financial derivatives market, CME Group, estimates the probability of this at over 90%. Moreover, it is possible that the rate will also increase to 75 bp in December (or, alternatively, by 50 bp in December and another 50 bp in Q1 2023). The peak of the rise is predicted at the level of 4.93-5.00% per annum, and this rate may remain until 2024.

As for Europe, the ECB representative and head of the Slovak Central Bank, Peter Kazimir, recently said that ?raising the rate by 75 bps in October is appropriate?. However, this had almost no impression on the market. Economists at Commerzbank still expect the European regulator to raise the rate to only 3.0% by March next year. Thus, it will still be far behind the USD rate.

In addition, the energy crisis and the problems associated with sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine will also continue to put pressure on the common European currency. According to analysts at Commerzbank, the euro will start to recover only when investors bet more and more on the end of the crisis next year. In the meantime, they write, ?a decisive tightening of monetary policy and a remarkably strong US economy make the US dollar the favorite currency of international investors.?

Thus, EUR/USD in the short term is still aimed south. And according to the forecasts of DBS Bank strategists, if it breaks through the important support level just below 0.9600, it may fall into the range of 0.8270-0.9500, which was observed in 2000-2002.

Following the release of September US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the 0.9750 zone at the time of writing the forecast on Friday evening, October 14. 55% of analysts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, another 35% expect it to move north, and the remaining 10% vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, 90% are red and 10% are green. The picture is quite different among the oscillators: only 40% of them advise selling the pair, 15% are in favor of buying, and 55% have taken a neutral position.

The immediate support for the EUR/USD is at 0.9700, followed by 0.9670, 0.9630, 0.9580 and finally the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Tuesday October 18, when the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Eurozone will be known. And there will be data on manufacturing activity and the housing market in the US on Thursday, October 20.

GBP/USD: UK Changes Course

In general, the GBP/USD chart was similar to the EUR/USD chart last week, except for the volatility. The local minimum was fixed at the level of 1.0922, the maximum - 1.1380, thus the range of fluctuations for the five-day period amounted to more than 450 points.

The statistics on the UK economy released this week looked mixed. Friday, October 14, was the key day, when Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Treasury Secretary Quasi Kwarteng. Now, after this event, the markets are awaiting details about the country's upcoming mini budget. Former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been appointed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Liz Truss has announced a dramatic change in fiscal policy. However, this has not helped the British currency much so far: it was in the 1.1200 area at the end of the working week.

As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, 25% have taken a neutral position, while the number of supporters of the strengthening of the pound is 0. Among the oscillators on D1, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds. Among the trend indicators, only 15% are colored red, 40% are green, and the remaining 45% are neutral gray.

The nearest levels and support zones are 1.1100, 1.1055, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0925. This is followed by 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1610, 1.1720, 1.1800 and 1.1960.

Regarding the release of UK macro statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, October 19, as in the Eurozone, and UK retail sales for September will be announced on Friday, October 21.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: How Much Will BTC Be Worth on October 9, 2024?

CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX in General Cryptocurrency Discussion_kuxyz8n

The crypto market was relatively quiet until Thursday October 13. The BTC/USD pair, despite the downward pressure, looked quite stable, holding positions around $19,000. However, it flew down  after the values of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) became known, following the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. However, it never reached the June 19 low of $17,940, and having found a local bottom at $18,155, it then went up sharply, following the stock indices. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 14, the pair is trading in the $19.375 zone.

According to Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe, bitcoin price volatility will increase in the second half of October. The US inflation data, along with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market. The next important point will be early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. Based on this, JP Morgan strategists predict a new collapse of the S&P500 index, by about another 20%. Thus, the unrealized loss of those who invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies at the beginning of 2022 could exceed 44%. However, many crypto investors hope that, as in the case of the recent crisis in the UK, bitcoin will play the role of digital gold this time and will not collapse after other assets. It will become clear in the foreseeable future whether these hopes will come true.

If we look at the latest analysts' forecasts by color, the palette is as follows: short-term forecasts are dark black, medium-term forecasts are gray, and long-term forecasts are sky blue.

Among the dark blacks, this time, let's highlight the scenario of Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins. He has recently shared a model that reflects BTC's price performance in previous bearish cycles. Zach Voell studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.

The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower. He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.

Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability in the past months. (Apart from BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3).

Now let's talk about what may happen in the last, Q4 2022. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks ?a strong tailwind.? He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

Such levels for ethereum and bitcoin will certainly not impress investors. Therefore, this forecast of the Bloomberg Intelligence strategist can be classified as neutral gray. Then move on to sky blue scenarios.

Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. According to the influencer, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable ?at some point? because of too much money.

That moment, according to Raoul Pal, could come when the Fed retreats from its plans to fight inflation by tightening monetary policy. This Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs chief executive said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.

According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.

?There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,? said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. ?This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,? says the financier. ?You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.?

A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.

The rainbow price chart of the Blockchain Center looks no less optimistic. (It differs somewhat from our forecast). It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset. In the long term, the graph indicates that bitcoin could reach a six-figure value of $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the ?maximum bubble territory? then, marked in dark red.

Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price is estimated to be in the ?Main Sale? zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin?s ?HODL? status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.

The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.

At the time of writing, the total crypto market capitalization is $0.927 trillion ($0.946 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed 1 point in seven days from 23 to 24 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#99 - October 16, 2022, 02:11:46 PM

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Most of the 564 crypto investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse think that bitcoin will continue to trade in the $17,600-25,000 price range until the end of 2022. Almost two-thirds (65%) of retail investors said that the regulation of the crypto industry was more attractive than a repulsive factor for buying digital assets. The figure was 56% among professionals.
Only a third of respondents admitted the possibility of flipping: the superiority of ethereum over bitcoin in terms of market capitalization in the next two years. After being asked to choose one word to describe the crypto industry, investors were almost evenly divided between opposite options: ?Ponzi? and ?future.?

- Katie Wood, the head of ARK Invest management company, shared her opinion on the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency. She predicted a rise to $4.5 trillion even when bitcoin was trading at $250. It was then that Wood asked Arthur Laffer, a well-known economist, and member of the US President Reagan's Advisory Board, to study the digital gold white paper. ARK Invest CEO was interested in the prospects of bitcoin as a unit of account, a means of preserving value and circulation. Laffer spoke positively about the first cryptocurrency. ?I've been looking for this ever since we dropped the gold standard. Bitcoin is a rules-based monetary system,? he said. Laffer also compared the prospects for capitalization of digital gold with the size of the US monetary base.
Wood added that it was this conversation that prompted her to immediately invest more than $100,000 in bitcoin, which was 400 BTC at that time (about $8.0 million at the time of writing).

- The quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 next year, against the background of the approaching halving. This was stated by well-known trader Ton Weiss in an interview with Kitco. He also warned that the price of digital gold could fall to $14.000 before the bull market sets in.
According to Weiss, capital flows from Europe to the United States and the syndrome of lost profits can become the engine of growth. ?They missed their chance to catch the low in 2018. This is another possibility. If bitcoin ever drops below $10,000, investors will immediately take advantage of this,? the trader explained.
He also noted the decentralization and resistance to censorship of the first cryptocurrency. According to Weiss, these characteristics will provide the asset with mass adoption. ?We are seeing how governments, the Central Bank and ordinary banks freeze accounts. This year alone, we have seen how the West and the US confiscate funds from people because of their Russian passports,? he said.

- One of the events that could significantly push the price of BTC up is the halving, which is due to take place in 2024. This opinion is also shared by a well-known crypto trading specialist under the nickname PlanB. He provided an analysis of previous bitcoin price movements and made predictions for the future using a Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. His colleague was supported by another trader and analyst, Josh Rager, who also expects bitcoin to grow significantly after the halving in 2024. At the same time, in his opinion, growth should not be expected before this event.
As we know, the last bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, when the reward for each created block was halved to 6.25 BTC. This reward will again be halved to 3.125 BTC per block during the fourth halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024.

- The legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has a slightly different opinion. He said that bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in about 32 months, but it would first fall to $13,000. The expert believes that the first cryptocurrency will find this bottom at the beginning of 2023 and will not show ?impressive? performance over the next year and a half.
According to Brandt, the US Federal Reserve is not going to ease monetary policy. He assumes that the regulator will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at least twice more by the end of 2022 in order to combat inflation.
However, the analyst expects that the value of the first cryptocurrency will no longer depend on other markets at some point. ?Bitcoin will eventually correlate with bitcoin,? Brandt explained. The expert also noted that the cryptocurrency will become the ?main store of value? in the next 10 years.
Recall that Peter Brandt has been working in the financial markets for more than 40 years, he is the creator of the Factor Trading service, which provides expert reports and analysis of asset value charts. Brandt has repeatedly noted that bitcoin is one of the largest parts of his investment portfolio.

- According to an October survey conducted by the financial company Finder, the median forecast of analysts is that the price of BTC will reach $270,722 by 2030. They also think that the first cryptocurrency will be traded at $21,344 by the end of this year.

- His Majesty's former Treasury Chief, Rishi Sunak, became the new British Prime Minister on October 25. He was remembered for his benevolent attitude towards cryptocurrencies in his previous position. In his opinion, innovations can make payments cheaper and faster.
His department began developing regulation for stablecoins in 2020 and announced research on Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).  The future Prime Minister stated in April 2022 that he aimed to turn the UK into a "global hub for crypto-assets technologies." Sunak instructed the Royal Mint then to issue NFTs, and the Treasury announced plans to legalize stablecoins.
However, the agency ruled out the use of algorithmic stablecoins as payment mechanisms in May, amid the collapse of Terra. The Treasury has also considered additional measures to protect against ?stable coin? disasters like UST.
Twitter users recalled that Sunak is easy to navigate popular NFT collections, and when taken a blitz survey, he chose both bitcoin and ethereum from the two leading cryptocurrencies.

- The bitcoin community is divided over whether BTC will rise or fall next year. There is reason to believe that BTC is likely to collapse sharply in the coming months but will then rise in middle to late 2023. Most analysts and technical indicators suggest that it could drop to $12,000-$16,000 in the coming months. This correlates with a volatile macro environment, stock prices, inflation, Fed data, and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.
On the other hand, influencers, BTC maximalists and a number of other fanatical barkers claim that the price of the first cryptocurrency can soar to $80,000 and more. According to trader and analyst Kevin Swenson, we may see an 80-week bear market turn into a bull market around April. The deflationary nature of BTC, thanks to the halving, will contribute to this price increase.
Michael van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, has joined the cohort of analysts anticipating the rise of the first cryptocurrency. He believes that bitcoin has been consolidating around $20,000 for too long and should soon get out of the corridor to shake things up. ?Bitcoin will break through all levels within two to three weeks. And I think it will be up. I think we'll get to $30,000."
The outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges also speaks in favor of a possible growth: this indicates that investors are withdrawing funds to cold wallets in anticipation of the growth of the first cryptocurrency.

- Other experts, on the contrary, believe that we will not see a surge either in the near future or in 2023. Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks has pointed out that there is a small chance that the coin could even crash to $3,500. ?I think we will see a small bounce in the near future, then a wave down to $12,000-13,000, and then, I am afraid, we will move to $8,000-10,000, maybe even see a drop to $3,500,? he says. At the same time, Gareth Soloway warns that if BTC falls to $12,000 or below, it may not be profitable for miners to manage the ecosystem. This would mean that transactions are no longer being processed. And this, in turn, can not only damage the industry, but also destroy the bitcoin market.

- Frank Giustra, a billionaire who built his fortune on investments in the mining industry, believes that the US authorities will destroy cryptocurrencies sooner or later. He suggested that the US government plans to develop a jurisdiction for its own blockchain. ?I think the US authorities really want to be ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of blockchain, not in bitcoin, but in a state-owned digital currency that they can fully control. Like all other countries, they don't need bitcoin competition. Therefore, I see BTC as a game against sovereign fiat money.? Giustra added that bitcoin has no chance of standing up to world governments.
The billionaire tried to convince crypto investors to invest in real gold. ?If you invest in precious metals, the government will not be able to take them away from you when it destroys all assets not controlled by them in the digital world.?

- The correlation between the prices of bitcoin and gold over the past 40 days has reached a significant value of 0.5, which is a strong increase after it was almost zero in mid-August. At the same time, the volatility of bitcoin turned out to be less than that of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Accordingly, the price of the coin began to fluctuate less following the change in these two main indicators of the world's largest capital market.
Bank of America, in a letter to investors, expressed the opinion that ?the decrease in bitcoin's positive correlation with the S&P 500 and the rapidly growing relationship with gold indicate that investors may be considering bitcoins as a relatively ?safe haven? in a situation where there remains macroeconomic uncertainty in the world, and the ?bottom? of the market may eventually be fixed.?

- As the most frightening holiday of the year approaches, there is another factor to consider when investing during this period: the ?Halloween effect?. This is a popular sign among traders, which suggests that bitcoin and the stock market tend to perform well from the end of October to the end of May.
According to Finbold, BTC's price has only increased year-on-year over the past three Halloweens. However, it would be too reckless currently to assume that a digital asset could show growth for the fourth year in a row. But even stranger things happen in the world. According to estimates by 28,488 members of the CoinMarketCap community, the average implied BTC price on Halloween, October 31, 2022, will be $21,248, which is 65.17% lower than on the same day last year. Bitcoin was trading at $61,300 on October 31, 2021, with a market capitalization of $1.156 trillion, up 344.39% from BTC?s Halloween 2020 price of $13,794.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#100 - October 26, 2022, 02:27:55 PM

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- October 31, 2022, marks 14 years since Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The white paper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world.
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared two years later, and the public has never been able to find out who wrote the document that underpins the multibillion-dollar industry. It is unknown as well whether it was one person or a group of people.

- UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres has noted that new technologies have ?unsurpassed potential to improve the lives of people? but are also used to finance terrorism. ?Terrorists are abusing new technologies to spread disinformation, foment discord, recruit and radicalize, mobilize resources and carry out attacks,? he said.
The UN plans to involve states in regulating the industry, to combat abuse of digital assets. Few countries, however, have begun work on regulation, and even fewer have ?successfully applied it? to curb illicit activity. At the same time, cash and hawala, an informal financial settlement system used mainly in the Middle East, remain the predominant methods of financing terrorism.

- According to the Coin ATM Radar center, after the failure in September (minus 459 devices), the number of bitcoin ATMs in the world increased in October by more than 200 units and reached 38,823.
Robocoin installed the world's first such ATM in a coffee shop in Vancouver (Canada) on October 29, 2013. 348 transactions worth more than $100,000 were made through the device during the first week. This operator no longer exists, and the focus of distribution has shifted to the United States: the country accounts for 88% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs. Canada retains the second line of the world ranking with a share of 6.6%. Spain came in third on October 22, 2022, with 215 bitcoin ATMs, or 0.6% of the total. Recall that analysts at Grand View Research predict that the bitcoin ATM market will reach $1.88 billion by 2028.

- Former Goldman Sachs CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal has allowed the digital asset market capitalization to rise to $300 trillion in the next 10-15 years. According to him, the capitalization of almost all financial markets ranges from $200 trillion to $300 trillion. Pal believes that cryptocurrencies will also reach this level in the future as part of the ?fastest and most massive growth? in history.
The expert's forecast is based on the amount of activity around the digital asset industry and Web3. Pal also noted an influx of $60 billion in venture capital investments over the past 18 months. He is confident that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will soar immediately after the end of the macroeconomic turmoil.

- The author of popular comics and books, American cartoonist Zach Weinersmith said that the only meaningful argument he heard from cryptocurrency supporters is that they do not want centralized power over money.? According to Weinersmith, gold can be used in this paradigm. Vitalik Buterin joined the discussion of his tweet and gave three arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies as money: 1. Gold is incredibly inconvenient and difficult to use, especially when dealing with unreliable parties. 2. It does not support secure storage options such as multi-signature. 3. Today, gold is less common than digital assets.
?So, cryptocurrencies are the best choice,? concluded the ethereum co-founder.

- Blockchain security firm Peckshield shared some horrifying statistics on digital asset theft on Halloween night. As of October 31, 2022, $2.98 billion worth of digital assets have been stolen, according to published data, nearly double the $1.55 billion lost in all of 2021.
October has broken all records, fitting its new nickname "Haktober". During this month alone, the attackers stole assets worth a whopping $760 million (although $100 million was recovered). After October, the second largest amount of stolen funds was in March, during which just under $710 million was stolen. Most of the losses were related to the hacking of the Ronin bridge used in the Axie Infinity sidechain, as a result of which $625 million worth of crypto assets were stolen.

- BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors would increase investment in crypto, albeit under certain conditions, such as "custody and execution that would be available in recognized, reliable institutions."
The BNY Mellon report notes that "nearly all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products." But at the same time, they are looking for ways to enter the cryptocurrency market safely, and not invest recklessly in the hope of high profits.

- Grayscale Investment has released the results of its survey. Experts planned to find out how ordinary Americans feel about the cryptocurrency industry. Only 52% of those surveyed agreed that cryptocurrencies are the financial future. And only 44% of respondents said they were considering investing in digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents (81%) agreed that cryptocurrencies need clear regulation rules.

- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts that bitcoin will become a reliable asset over the next 5-10 years that can provide investors with security in difficult times. The billionaire believes that the market capitalization of BTC is not yet large enough for the first cryptocurrency to act as a serious hedge asset. However, according to the businessman, everything can change around 2030, when the crypto market will grow and ?take a large share of the global economy.? Bitcoin can be then treated as digital gold, investments in which can protect during a crisis.
The head of Coinbase admitted that he has now overestimated the chances of bitcoin to act as insurance against inflation. ?I thought that the situation in the economy could draw more attention to BTC, but it looks like it?s too early,? the billionaire said.
Cathie Wood, manager of ARK Invest, shares a similar opinion. In her opinion, the capitalization of bitcoin will grow to $4.5 trillion, and it can become more valuable than most fiat currencies, including the US dollar.

- The cryptocurrency market flagship continues to trade above the $20,000 key level. Kitco News analyst Jim Wyckoff noted that bulls are technically dominating bears. The specialist does not rule out that consolidation may form on the market in the near future before the quotes move into a phase of stable growth. Wyckoff has not ruled out either that bitcoin could experience increased volatility in the coming weeks.

- An analyst aka Plan B believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new cycle. The expert predicts an uptrend for two reasons. First, thanks to the recent rise in the value of bitcoin, investors who collectively own more than 60% of the available coins have made profits. According to Plan B, this factor indicates the upcoming BTC price pump. Secondly, the RSI index speaks in favor of the increase in the value of bitcoin. The value of this technical indicator has recently dropped to its all-time low, that is, the market has fallen into an extreme oversold zone, so a reversal is inevitable.
Researchers at Glassnode agree with Plan B. Their latest report says that the bitcoin market is currently in an accumulation phase, leading up to a massive bull run. There is a trend at the moment, similar to what happened at the beginning of 2019 before the rapid increase in bitcoin's value more than threefold.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#101 - November 02, 2022, 03:34:45 PM

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- The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange collapsed the crypto market. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. The relationship between Binance and FTX is a complex and long story, starting with Binance receiving $2.1 billion for withdrawing from FTX investments.
Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao?s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. During the day, all BTC (about 20,000 units) were withdrawn from the exchange, and the exchange's balance is currently negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well. Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline.
Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao announced on Tuesday, November 08 that his exchange is going to buy FTX, which is facing a liquidity crisis. However, this is currently just an intention that is not binding.
Against the background of all these events, bitcoin fell significantly in price, falling by 14.2% on November 8: from $20,701 to $17,756. Ethereum ?shrunk? by 28%, it fell from $1,577 to $1,135. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.853 trillion. As experts explained, ?investors don't like to see any disruptions in any risky asset.?

- Nigerian presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo said that the introduction of the latest technology will help reduce unemployment in the country and promised to use blockchain and digital currencies to create 30 million jobs. His future administration intends to join forces with 2,000 local cryptocurrency companies to do this.
Residents of another country, Lebanon, whose national currency has fallen by 96% against the US dollar, see salvation in cryptocurrencies as well. Inflation has hit triple digits since August 2019, and the minimum wage has been cut from $450 to $17, according to CNBC. As a result, mining has replaced full-time jobs for some of the country's citizens.

- The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.
Cumberland, the cryptocurrency arm of venture capital firm DRW, also believes that a ?promising uptrend? is forming in the volatile digital asset market. ?The dollar's seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,? the firm said. ?This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.? Another tailwind for digital assets, according to Cumberland, is the easing of geopolitical turmoil, namely the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the resolution of problems in supply chains.

- Many on-chain metrics, including Pewell's multiplier, RHODL Ratio, and Reserve Risk, signal that bitcoin is deeply oversold and is likely to reach the bottom of the bearish market. This is stated in October analytical report by ForkLog. At the same time, some indicators point to the risk of a new wave of redistribution and price consolidation in the range of $16,500-21,100.

- Having analyzed bitcoin?s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a ?bullish megaphone pattern.? In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.
As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

- Speaking at Web Summit 2022, billionaire Tim Draper predicted that the price of the first cryptocurrency would rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. However, this prediction is not new at all. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.
Draper is confident that women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. ?You can?t buy food, clothing, and housing with bitcoin just yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,? the billionaire added.
He also called digital gold an insurance against mismanagement and noted that cryptocurrencies prevent the government from controlling the population. ?You saw speculators get out of bitcoin. Only hodlers remain, they're into it. They say it creates a freer and more trusting world. [Bitcoin] is an honest currency, not tied to banks and governments. It is decentralized,? Tim Draper explained.

- Mastercard Chief product officer Michael Miebach believes that it will take longer than expected for cryptocurrency to become mainstream. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.
Like Tim Draper, Miebach sees a future world where the majority of consumers around the world use bitcoin in their daily transactions and settlements. However, he believes that this will not happen in the coming months: ?I think there is a long way to go before cryptocurrency becomes mainstream.?

- The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has determined that cryptocurrency fraud falls into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.
ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include ?getting an offer out of the blue,? ?fake celebrity ads,? and asking a ?romantic partner you only know online? to send money in crypto.
Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits "for tax purposes" or offering "free money" or "guaranteed" investment income.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#102 - November 09, 2022, 02:25:14 PM

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- Cryptocurrency funds may lose up to $5 billion due to the bankruptcy of FTX. This is evidenced by a study by the analytical agency Crypto Fund Research. According to the experts, the crisis has affected 25-40% of industry investment structures that invested in FTX or its utility token FTT. Joshua Gnaizda, CEO of Crypto Fund Research, clarified that we are talking about 7-12% of assets under fund management.
Paradigm and Sequoia Capital reported that their potential losses due to the FTX crisis could be $278 million and $213 million, respectively. About $175 million has been blocked at the Genesis Trading brokerage company. As of November 8, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital investment firm had $76.8 million in FTX-related positions. Multicoin Capital invested $25 million in the US division of FTX, and also held $2 million in USDC on the exchange itself. Investments in FTX US through the Venture Fund II, created in July, amounted to $430 million. Crypto Fund Research experts have estimated the value of Pantera Capital's FTX-related assets at approximately $100 million.
Industry participants admitted on condition of anonymity that the losses of asset managers could be even greater. ?The number of funds absolutely destroyed by this bankruptcy is just beginning to be revealed,? one of the sources said. Researchers expect a record number of investor requests for refunds from crypto funds in November, up to $2 billion. The previous high of $1.3 billion was recorded in June after the Terra crash.

- The FTX incident has shown that the cryptocurrency industry needs ?very careful regulation.? This opinion was expressed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, writes Bloomberg. The The Treasury Secretary added that the consequences of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's empire could be even worse if the cryptocurrency market was more closely intertwined with the traditional financial system. ?At least it's not as deeply integrated with our banking sector, and it doesn't pose more serious threats to financial stability at the moment,? Yellen said.

- While many investors around the world are panicking, experts at JPMorgan investment bank consider current events to be a positive catalyst. They said that the FTX crisis would benefit the industry and help it move several steps forward. The sudden collapse of one of the largest crypto companies will encourage regulators to speed up the process of forming regulations that allow effective control of the sector. And the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory framework will facilitate the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
JPMorgan analysts had warned earlier that the fall of major cryptocurrencies is not over, and the crisis related to the bankruptcy of FTX could lead to ?cascading liquidations?. The market decline will continue for some time, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the JPMorgan team believes that the blow to total capitalization is likely to be less this time, as the TerraUSD episode has already caused a pullback in risk taking and a more wary attitude towards investing in dubious projects.

- MicroStrategy is not abandoning its strategy of buying and accumulating bitcoin, despite the continued market decline. This was stated by the executive chairman of the company Michael Saylor. He acknowledged that the situation looks like a "roller coaster" for digital gold. But at the same time, he recalled that bitcoin sank to levels that are still 33% higher than the levels when MicroStrategy first bought BTC in 2020. The company's shares have risen 38% over the period, outperforming tech giants like Apple or Amazon.
After acquiring 301 BTC worth $6 million in September 2022, MicroStrategy's reserves reached 130,000 BTC. The company has invested about $3.98 billion in cryptocurrency. The current value of the assets is approximately $2.25 billion.

- The People's Court of Shangrao (China) jailed a hacker for 10.5 years who, in the spring of 2018, used a Trojan to gain access to the imToken wallet on the victim's phone. During March-April, he made over 520 withdrawals for a total of 383.6 ETH. Subsequently, the attacker exchanged these coins for 109,458 USDT. After the hacker was arrested, the police returned all the stolen assets to the victim. In addition to imprisonment, the court fined him 200,000 yuan (about $28,000).

- A popular analyst named Dave the Wave told his 130,200 Twitter followers that cryptocurrency markets faced a huge loss of public trust after FTX filed for bankruptcy. However, Dave the Wave also reminded that bitcoin had previously remained in a long-term uptrend even when many announced its actual death. ?Do not underestimate the speculative beast underlying the BTC market, as reflected in the LGC (logarithmic growth curve), which has demonstrated the ability to absorb the most terrible news and events,? the expert believes.

- Edward Snowden, a former CIA and US National Security Agency employee who once fled to Russia, shared his views on the crypto market. Snowden believes that after the collapse of FTX, the industry should switch to secure DEXs. Decentralized exchanges are an alternative to centralized exchanges and are managed solely by smart contracts without the participation of a third party. Thanks to full decentralization, DEXs in their original state should never face problems similar to FTX, as their reserves never fall below users' deposits.

- About three-quarters of bitcoin investors lost money due to the continued decline in the crypto market. This was stated in the Bank for International Settlements. BIS analysts analyzed data on cryptocurrency investors in 95 countries from 2015 to 2022. During the study period, the price of bitcoin rose from $250 in August 2015 to a peak of almost $69,000 in November 2021. The number of people using apps to buy cryptocurrency has grown from 119,000 to 32.5 million over the same period. In addition, the experts found that as the price of bitcoin rose, smaller users bought it, while the largest holders, on the contrary, sold it, receiving income from smaller users.
The study also found that the majority of new cryptocurrency investors (around 40%) are males under the age of 35, commonly referred to as the most ?risk seeking? segment of the population.

- Bitcoin has stopped the fall caused by the collapse of FTX, and its supporters believe with a vengeance in its bullish future. Thus, experts from the cryptanalytical firm TradingShot conducted an ?interesting fractal analysis at different time intervals?, which showed that if bitcoin stays above $16,628, its powerful rally is not ruled out in 2023. The results of the analysis suggest an increase in bullish potential, perhaps even up to $95,000 by 2024.

- Tesla CEO and new Twitter owner Elon Musk is confident that BTC will survive the bear market, although it will take a long time before its full potential is realized. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, also expressed optimism, who said that he is not concerned about the current price movement of the main cryptocurrency.
Elon GOAT Token (EGT) issuing company has created a monument to Tesla CEO Elon Musk ?in honor of his many achievements and commitment to cryptocurrency.? The nine-meter aluminum monument, which depicts Elon Musk as a goat on a rocket, cost the company $600,000.  The company drew attention to the fact that the image of the goat is not accidental. The name of the animal in English is goat, and in the case of the sculpture, the authors encrypted the phrase ?Greatest Of All Time? in this way. ?We thought it was a fun and creative way to get the attention of Elon and the world,? the company said. We will deliver it to Elon Musk on November 26. The donation will take place at Tesla's headquarters in Austin."

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort, who served time for securities fraud and is known as the ?Wolf of Wall Street,? shared tips for managing finances during times of high volatility.
Tip No.1: Invest in bitcoin for 3-4 years. ?If you take a three-, four- or five-year horizon, I would be shocked if you didn?t make money,? the expert says.
Tip No.2: Don't look at anything other than bitcoin and Ethereum. Belfort believes that despite the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies, the attention of investors should be focused only on these two assets, as they have a solid foundation. In the case of bitcoin, limited supply and a rising adoption curve are key catalysts for an upward rally. As for Ethereum, it has become the first cryptocurrency to have really wide use cases in terms of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Tip No.3: Don't panic. ?The whole crypto world is paralyzed by fear. [...] I'll say that if you get back into the game, this is the moment when the market is making the most money,? says The Wolf of Wall Street.
Belfort called the current market downturn a "cleansing." He also believes that the potential of bitcoin will be realized when the crypto sector becomes fully regulated.

- After cryptocurrency began to fall in price due to the bankruptcy of FTX, a video of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger smashing cryptocurrency began to circulate on social networks. In a 2018 video, this legendary investor stated that the crypto industry is attracting a large number of charlatans who use people ?who are trying to get rich because their neighbor is rich.? Then he said that cryptocurrencies are ?rat poison squared? and a bad outcome awaits them. Buffett's right-hand man Munger, in turn, called cryptocurrencies "disgusting" and said that their price will fall to zero eventually.
?It turns out that old people really know what they are talking about,? economist Steven Geiger commented on the words of Buffett and Munger.

- Analyst Jason Pizzino opined that bitcoin bulls would not allow BTC to fall to $10,000. ?We have a figure of $14,900 in the spot market as a cycle low and around $15,500 depending on which exchange you use.? According to Pizzino, ?If we get above $18,500 or $18,600, that would be a strong indication that the whole thing was just a shake-up, and perhaps the losses will be offset during November and there will be a return to $20,000.?
?However, that doesn't mean that once we close above that $18,500, we can't go back down,? the trader added. ?If the decline continues throughout November, then we will get a price of about $13,500, which is relatively well in line with the previous highs of the old 2019 cycle.?

- According to Morgan Stanley analysts, another sale may take place in the coming days. Traders will turn to selling due to the fact that BTC was unable to gain a foothold above $17,000. The result, most likely, will be a fall in the BTC rate below $15,000. In the event of such a rollback, the cryptocurrency can only qualify for immediate support in the $14,000 region. Moreover, Morgan Stanley does not exclude that bitcoin will find the bottom at $13,500 or even $12,500. But it will be the worst of scenarios.
Delphi Digital also came to a similar conclusion. Its report says that market consolidation has been delayed and that technical indicators hint at a new reset by the end of November. At best, bitcoin will be able to stay in the range of $14,000 to $16,000.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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#103 - November 16, 2022, 02:22:59 PM

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- A deepfake of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was spread on Twitter, where he offered to take part in a cryptocurrency draw as compensation for the collapse of his exchange. The deepfake video directed people to a website hosting the ?largest $100 million cryptocurrency giveaway.? To participate in the ?draw?, the scammers offered users to send any number of coins to a specific address.
The fake account was quickly banned. Apparently, the scammers used an $8 Twitter Blue subscription to pass off a fake Sam Bankman-Freed profile as a real one. For reference: Deepfake is a technology for creating and replacing elements on existing videos using artificial intelligence and neural networks.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently shared a mysterious tweet that puzzled the cryptocurrency community. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Dumbfounded by the strange text, readers are now trying to figure out if Buterin is trolling or is really trying to say something to the community.
This veiled warning comes after a dark tweet by renowned venture capitalist Paul Graham. He stated there that the crypto economy was about to experience ?systemic risk? and referred to information he heard from a trustworthy person. At the same time, he added that he "does not know anything specific." So, it's possible that Buterin was simply making fun of Graham's vague doom warning.

- In addition, rumors have spread that Vitalik Buterin is getting rid of his Ethereum holdings. The wallet he allegedly owns has sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million through Uniswap decentralized exchange. The question of whether this wallet really belongs to the Ethereum co-founder is debatable, but transactions were made with his other known addresses as well. These steps were taken in the middle of the night on Saturday, November 12, less than 24 hours after news of FTX's possible bankruptcy broke.

- Billionaire investor and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Bill Ackman is optimistic about the prospects for cryptocurrencies, despite recent industry events, including the FTX crash. ?Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and with proper oversight, they can benefit society and develop the global economy. All bona fide ecosystem participants should be highly motivated to expose and eliminate fraudulent projects, as they increase the risk of regulatory intervention,? Ackman said.
According to him, he was initially skeptical because he saw that the phone, the Internet and cryptocurrencies have ?one thing in common?: ?Each of these technologies helps the other in terms of improving fraud opportunities.? The billionaire also assumed that tokens have no intrinsic value and are simply a ?modern version of tulip mania? but has now changed his point of view. The billionaire admitted that he has invested in several crypto projects. However, the share of such investments does not exceed 2% of his total portfolio.

- According to Happycoin.news, Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes. Belfort called FTX's business model a "fraternity house," which is more like a hostel than an actual business. In addition, in his opinion, all Bankman-Fried decisions can be equated to madness, and regulators need to focus on clients who lost money as a result of the exchange crash.

- A number of US senators have sent a letter to the management of the holding company Fidelity Investments, calling for a reconsideration of the option to include bitcoin in retirement savings accounts. It was supposed to be available to employees of 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans.
?The recent FTX crash has made it clear that the digital asset industry is in serious trouble. It's full of charismatic geeks, opportunistic scammers and self-proclaimed investment advisors who promote products without a proper level of transparency,? the legislators explained their move.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

- Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has ?shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders? and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.
At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 to $3,200 in November 2018. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.
In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players ?is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,? the report notes.

- The November fall in the cryptocurrency market resulted in a sharp increase in the number of unprofitable bitcoin addresses. According to the IntoTheBlock platform, the proportion of wallets that bought BTC at prices higher than today is now just over 51%. The total number of BTC holders is now 47.85 million, of which 24.56 million addresses are suffering losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone.
The last time a similar situation was observed was after the March market crash, IntoTheBlock analysts say. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in January 2019, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

- Dave the Wave, a well-known crypto analyst with over 130,000 Twitter followers, has published an updated Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support.
BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a drop did not last long in past cycles, and the cryptocurrency regained its long-term support quickly. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.
The analyst noted in a comment to his tweet that special attention should be paid to the closing of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to stay on the lower logarithmic curve and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

- American economist Benjamin Cowen is one of the best-known proponents of bitcoin?s cyclical nature and the cycle lengthening hypothesis. He has recently published a chart comparing the current bear market with the previous three. We see here the return on investment (ROI) of BTC of those who bought it at its absolute peak. The chart shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today.
On the one hand, 376 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI is 0.247. In previous bearish markets, it always fell below 0.2. If this happens now, bitcoin will face another fall.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. The cryptocurrency has fallen below $16,000, but Hayes believes that the story will continue to develop. The market is again on alert, as reports are received about the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a branch of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. The Genesis Credit Branch stopped the withdrawal of funds by customers on November 16. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding.
Binance was expected to join the deal. But the trading platform refused to participate in financing, fearing a conflict of interest. However, Genesis is not officially preparing for bankruptcy, and the funding target has been lowered to $500 million.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
#104 - November 23, 2022, 02:34:27 PM

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