Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Oil price on the backfoot in early 2023 despite high demand


If the year 2022 can be remembered for any recurring feature in terms of demand for commonly traded commodities, it can be remembered as a year of high energy prices across many Western countries, with oil being one of the most prized consumable commodities of the year.

In the summer of 2022, Fuel stations across Europe and the United Kingdom were charging in excess of 2 euros / 2 pounds for a liter of unleaded fuel for vehicles, and energy costs for domestic heating, reliant on gas or oil, were soaring, especially in the United Kingdom where approximately 30 energy companies became insolvent and left the market in late 2021, resulting in far less competition at a time during which the raw material itself was in huge demand for geopolitical reasons.

Demand remains very high for crude oil, and as many European nations continue to enforce draconian sanctions on one of the world's largest suppliers of oil - the Russian Federation - prices have been volatile throughout the last 12 months.

Interestingly, however, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) started the year 2023 in a stagnant position.

Indeed, Brent Crude Oil futures for February 2023 settlement are 1.86% down compared to the end of December and currently valued at approximately $78.1 per barrel.

Stocks in 'big oil' companies are still quite strong, however, as publicly listed North American oil giantr ExxonMobil is reportedly set to report $56 billion in profit for 2022, marking the highest number ever achieved by a non-state-owned company and almost triple its 2021 result.

Whether these companies are riding on their bonanza year which 2022 turned out to be is yet to be seen, as it is possible that investors may view these massive profits with caution if 2023's initial few weeks does not demonstrate the same level of high prices as 2022 did.

If the natural gas market is any indicator of the performance of other commodities which are equally affected by the same geopolitical constraints, it is worth noting that natural gas prices are now back down to the level they were at this time a year ago, before the war started and before any sanctions on Russian gas companies were imposed which made it impossible for customers in Europe to pay Russian suppliers for gas, resulting in curtailing of supply.

It appears that those which owe money are now being chased, and just recently a Russian court approved an order that the assets of German industrial gas firm Linde worth $500 million be frozen at the request of a Gazprom-led joint venture, citing unfulfilled commitments.

There is a 'new normal' now that the markets are beginning to adjust to.

This morning, during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude oil crept back up slightly to the $79 per barrel mark, but, apart from a dip to $76 per barrel in mid-December, today's value is the lowest it has been since December 2021, before all of the sanctions began.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD 2023 Chart Outlook


AUD/USD started a decent increase in Oct 2022 and climbed above 0.6500. Similarly, NZD/USD was able to clear the 0.6000 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.6400 and 0.6500 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6840 on the daily chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a steady increase above the 0.6000 and 0.6200 levels.
• There was a clear move above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6270 on the daily chart.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In Oct 2022, the Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6200 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair remained well bid and started a fresh increase above the 0.6400 resistance zone.

The pair climbed higher steadily above the 0.6500 level, but it remained below the 50-day simple moving average. There was a clear move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the 0.7145 high to 0.6170 swing low.

AUD/USD Daily Chart


However, there are many resistances forming on the upside near the 0.6830 and 0.6850 levels. More importantly, the 50-day simple moving average is positioned near the 0.6850 level.

There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6840 on the daily chart of AUD/USD. Only a successful daily close above 0.6850 might start a strong recovery towards the 0.7150 level.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major decline from the 0.7145 high to 0.6170 swing low is also near the 0.7150 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 0.7200 level.

On the downside, the key supports are 0.6720 and 0.6680, below which the pair may perhaps decline extend its decline towards the 0.6600 and 0.6550 levels. Any more losses might call for a move towards the 0.6400 level.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Aims Higher


GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2100 zone. GBP/JPY is also rising and might gain pace if it clears the 160.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is showing positive signs above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh increase above the 158.50 resistance zone.
• There is a key contracting triangle is forming with resistance near 160.00 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.1840 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.2000 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.2050 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


The pair even cleared the 1.2100 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2136 on FXOpen and the pair started a consolidation phase.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2140 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2200 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2250. An upside break above 1.2250 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2320. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2400 or even 1.2500.

An immediate support is near the 1.2080. The next major support is near the 1.2065 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1841 swing low to 1.2136 high.

If there is a break below the 1.2065 support, the pair could test the 1.2050 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1841 swing low to 1.2136 high. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1820.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis ? 10th JAN 2023


BTCUSD: Three Inside UP Pattern Above $16608

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $16608 on 03rd Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar and is ranging above the $17200 handle in the European trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a three inside up pattern above the $16608 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 17133 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 17277 in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is back over the pivot point in the daily time frame.

The ichimoku is indicating a bullish crossover with tenkan and kijun in the daily time frame.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 55.92 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 17500 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $16608
• The average directional index is indicating a NEUTRAL level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $17261
• The short-term range is strongly bullish

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $16608


The price of bitcoin continues to rise above the $17000 handle and after some consolidation we are expecting the immediate targets of $18000 and $19000.

There is an ascending channel forming with the current support at $16521 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

The Williams percent indicator is back over -50 indicating a bullish tone present in the markets.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 1-hour time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin?s support zone is located at $16802 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average, and $16926 which is a 1st Support point of the pivot point.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 17271 and Fibonacci resistance level of 17289 after which the path towards 18000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 0.08% by 14.08$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 15.993 billion. We can see an increase of 10.97% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin?s price is expected to enter a super bullish zone after crossing the $18000 level with the next upwards targets located at $19000 and $20000.

The daily RSI is printing at 60.20 which indicates a STRONG demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $17429 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls, and $17789 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13-week low.

The weekly outlook is projected at $18500 with a consolidation zone of $18000.

Technical Indicators:

The MACD (12,26): is at 25.00 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 135.50 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 0.232 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power (13): is at 24.49 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Could Climb Further Higher


EUR/USD is eyeing an upside break above the 1.0750 resistance zone. EUR/JPY is rising and might climb further higher above the 142.50 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0650 resistance zone.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.0745 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a strong increase and settled above the 142.00 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 141.20 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 1.0500 zone and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0550 and 1.0580 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 1.0650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above 1.0700 and traded as high as 1.0760 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below the 1.0750 support zone.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0720 level. The next major support sits near the 1.0695 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0482 swing low to 1.0760 high is also near 1.0695, below which the pair could even test the 1.0650 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0650 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions.  In the stated case, it could even test 1.0620 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0482 swing low to 1.0760 high.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0750 level. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.0745 on the hourly chart.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0780 level. A clear move above the 1.0780 resistance might send the price towards 1.0850. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0950 resistance zone in the near term.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis ? 12th JAN, 2023


ETHUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $1237

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1237 on 06th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1400 handle today in the European trading session.

The prices are ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

We have seen a bullish opening in the markets this week.

We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $1237 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1398 and moving in a strongly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1401 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1403 after which the path towards 1500 will get cleared.

We have also seen the formation of an upside gap in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bullish nature of the markets.

The relative strength index is at 70.66 indicating a strong demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought market, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal at the current market levels of $1399.

ETH is now trading Above both the 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1237 mark
• The short-term range appears to be strongly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1350 level
• The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1237


ETHUSD continues to trade higher against the US dollar and bitcoin. The price of Ethereum remains supported above the $1300 level and now we are testing the break of the $1500 handle.

The momentum Indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with moving average MA20 in the weekly time frame.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1341 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1417 in the European trading session today.

The daily RSI is printing at 75.77 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1275 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average and at $1313 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week high.

ETH has increased by 4.62% with a price change of 61.65$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 9.607 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 74.76% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to the heavy buying pressure seen in the global markets.

The Week Ahead

ETH has already made a successful attempt at crossing the $1400 level and the next targets are located at $1500 and $1600 levels in the medium-term.

We can see the formation of an ascending channel from $1237 towards $1421.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral under present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1413 which is a 1-month high, and at $1442 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13-week high.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1550 with a consolidation zone of $1500.

Technical Indicators:

The STOCH (9,6): is at 57.42 indicating a BUY

The MACD (12,26): is at 16.00 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 51.75 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 4.24 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.