Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD and USD/CHF Pull Back: Market Reacts to Fundamentals


European currencies have shown a recovery in recent trading sessions after their recent decline, displaying early signs of a reversal. The US dollar is weakening amid expectations surrounding upcoming US macroeconomic data, while market participants are reassessing their short-term positions and allowing for a deeper corrective move in the greenback. At the same time, the risk of renewed demand for the dollar remains in place should geopolitical tensions escalate further, a factor that is already being partly priced in.

Additional support for the euro and the Swiss franc has come from a reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Earlier, geopolitical tensions had boosted demand for the dollar; however, recent comments from Donald Trump regarding the possibility of new strikes on Iran in the coming weeks have once again increased uncertainty and may revive interest in the dollar as a defensive asset.

Investors are also focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including labour market and trade data. These figures may reveal early signs of economic cooling, potentially adding pressure on the dollar. At the same time, a combination of strong data and rising geopolitical risks could restore solid demand for the US currency and limit the current correction. Additional attention will also be given to data from Europe and Switzerland, where inflation and business activity indicators may influence expectations regarding central bank policies and reinforce the ongoing recovery in European currencies if the figures prove supportive.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Consolidation Ahead of NFP: Commodity Currencies Search for Direction


Commodity-linked currencies have entered a consolidation phase following recent directional moves, as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US labour market data. Current price action reflects a balance between ongoing demand for the US dollar and attempts at a corrective rebound amid an uncertain fundamental backdrop.

Geopolitical tensions remain an additional factor influencing the market, sustaining elevated uncertainty and increasing volatility across commodity assets. Fluctuations in energy prices continue to affect commodity currencies, limiting the development of sustained trends and making market direction increasingly dependent on incoming macroeconomic data.

Traders have also taken note of yesterday?s remarks by Donald Trump, which included signals of potential shifts in foreign economic policy and approaches to international relations. Additional comments regarding a willingness to intensify pressure on Iran in the coming weeks have further raised geopolitical uncertainty. While the immediate market reaction has been relatively muted, such rhetoric increases the likelihood of renewed demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly if accompanied by strong US macroeconomic data.

Investor focus now turns to the upcoming US employment report. Key releases include Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth figures, all of which traditionally have a significant impact on currency markets. Strong data could revive bullish momentum in the dollar, while weaker figures may reinforce corrective sentiment and put additional pressure on the US currency.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD at Range Boundaries Ahead of Geopolitical Decisions


European currencies are entering a consolidation phase following an attempted recovery, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape. Current price action reflects a balance between a softer US dollar and a lack of sustained drivers for further gains in the euro and the pound, keeping both pairs within defined ranges.

The key factor shaping the current market structure remains developments surrounding Iran. Despite signs of moderate recovery in global markets and some easing in the dollar, US rhetoric and the absence of clear signals regarding a potential agreement continue to maintain a high level of uncertainty. Rising oil prices and risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel inflation expectations and, as a result, support a cautious approach to assessing the outlook for monetary policy.

Additional uncertainty stems from statements by Donald Trump, who earlier this week once again hardened his stance on Iran, suggesting the possibility of further strikes. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement are ongoing, although the likelihood of a near-term resolution is seen as limited. This combination of pressure and negotiations creates a mixed news backdrop, restraining the formation of a clear directional move in the currency market while leaving room for sharp impulses in the event of escalation.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FOMC Minutes in Focus: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Pull Back from Highs


The US dollar has shifted into a corrective phase following its previous rally, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve?s meeting minutes. The weakening of the dollar has already led to a moderate pullback in USD/JPY and USD/CAD from recent highs, reflecting profit-taking and reduced activity ahead of a key event.

An additional factor influencing the market remains geopolitical tensions, which continue to affect global financial flows. Fluctuations in energy prices and persistent escalation risks are limiting the formation of устойчивых trends, increasing the dependence of currency pairs on incoming macroeconomic data.

Today, investor focus will be on the Federal Reserve minutes, which may help clarify the regulator?s stance on the future path of interest rates. The market will assess the tone of policymakers? comments, particularly the balance between inflation risks and signs of economic slowdown. Depending on the tone, the market may either extend the dollar?s corrective move or revive demand for the US currency.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Brent Crude Price: Ceasefire Wipes Out the Geopolitical Premium


For several weeks, the oil market remained directly influenced by the US-Iran tensions. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent prices within the $97?110 range. Overnight on 8 April, the parties announced a two-week ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping, immediately removing the accumulated geopolitical premium from prices. Brent declined by over 10%, falling towards the $92 per barrel level.

However, later the same day, the ceasefire came under pressure. Gulf states reported Iranian drone and missile strikes, with the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain confirming attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure. Iran subsequently suspended vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of the agreement by Israel, which had conducted strikes in Lebanon. Israel clarified that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

Negotiations are scheduled for 10 April in Islamabad, although the outcome remains uncertain. The market continues to show high sensitivity to any changes in diplomatic or military rhetoric. In parallel, OPEC+ approved an increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, adding further supply-side pressure.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Commodity Currencies on the Rise: Market Focus Shifts to US and Canadian Data


Commodity-linked currencies continue to strengthen, while the US dollar remains under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets. Reports of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran have helped stabilise sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, supporting currencies sensitive to the global economic cycle, including the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Another factor weighing on the dollar is expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy, which remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data. Lower US Treasury yields and ongoing uncertainty inflation dynamics are reinforcing cautious market positioning. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to upcoming US data releases, including inflation, consumer sentiment, and business activity indicators, which may reshape interest rate expectations.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Holds Firm, USD/CAD Bulls Target Breakout Move


GBP/USD started a downside correction from 1.3480. USD/CAD is gaining bullish momentum and might clear 1.3880 for more upside.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today
- The British Pound rallied toward 1.3500 before the bears appeared.
- There was a break below a rising channel with support near 1.3410 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3835 pivot zone.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3830 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.3300. The British Pound even climbed above 1.3450 before the bears appeared against the US Dollar.

A high was formed at 1.3485, and the pair started a minor downside correction. The pair traded below 1.3440, a rising channel, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3176 swing low to the 1.3485 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

European Currencies Advance Amid Shifting Geopolitical Outlook


The initial rise in EUR/USD and GBP/USD was driven by reports of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, over the weekend, reports emerged that negotiations had stalled, leading to a bearish gap at the start of the new trading week. Subsequently, rumours of a possible resumption of dialogue once again shifted market sentiment, restoring interest in risk-sensitive assets.

This supported a swift recovery in the euro and the pound, while also increasing pressure on the US dollar. Additional downside pressure on the dollar comes from declining Treasury yields and a reassessment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy, which continues to limit the upside potential of the US currency.

Market attention today will focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases from the euro area and the United States, including producer inflation (PPI), business activity data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. These factors may adjust current interest rate expectations and influence the dollar?s short-term trajectory.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.