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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_xx
Crypto investors are looking for reasons to be optimistic

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_cryptos

The market has entered a consolidation zone after the anomalous activity of May 19, with fluctuations framed by a narrowing triangle formation. Currently, no significant news reports are affecting the market, and the volumes are fading. This situation is reminiscent of the calm before the storm. What will the storm be like and when will it happen?

Optimists are looking for arguments that would signify a resuming growth. Analysts point to the outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges (see fig. 2), as evidenced by data (see fig. 1) collected by the Glassnode agency. Blue arrows on the chart indicate that previous outflows occurred against the backdrop of rising quotes. Therefore, the current outflow, according to analysts, could be a bullish harbinger.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_btcusd

But digging deeper, we will find out that this was not always the case. A similar outflow occurred during the lull in the first half of November 2018. And in the second half, a bearish storm occurred, and BTCUSD collapsed from 6400 to 3200.

Volume analysis does give cause for concern. On July 11, there was a growth attempt (see fig. 3), but the volumes were low, which indicates a possible shortage of buyers. The next day, July 12, confirms the weakness of demand, as the price decreased on growing volumes, which can be interpreted as active selling pressure. It seems that negative sentiment prevails in the market, as participants are actively selling the coin instead of buying. If so, then the price of 33,500 is too high for BTC.

In such conditions, the fate of a psychological support level of 30k causes more and more concerns.


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#181 - July 15, 2021, 06:13:44 AM

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LTC and EOS ? Upside expected but could be correctional

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_ltc-1

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin was on the rise from yesterday and came up by 6% from its low of  $124.3 to $131.8 at its highest point today. We have seen a minor pullback to $127.6 and currently it started moving to the upside again.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_ltcusd-1h-1

On the hourly chart, you can see that yesterday?s low was the third lower low from the 29th of Jun. This could have marked the completion of the corrective ABC structure after a five-wave impulse from the 22nd of Jun. If this is true then the price is now set to continue moving to the upside in an impulsive manner.

Another possibility could be that the price made a three-wave increase from the 22nd till the 29th in which case we have seen a corrective ABCDE after, but in both cases, the price would be expected to continue moving higher. Either as the continuation of the corrective WXY of the higher degree in a negative scenario or the 3rd wave from the five-wave impulse in a positive one.

The pullback seen from yesterday is most likely the 2nd sub-wave of starting move to the upside so shortly a breakout would be expected from the descending resistance level and a higher high compared to yesterday?s one. Moving forward we are going to see from the price action which scenario is going to get validated.


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#182 - July 15, 2021, 03:16:15 PM

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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_xx
Gold Price Could Extend Gains While Crude Oil Price Corrects Lower

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_gold-price

Gold price started a decent recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is declining and it might even break the $70.00 support zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

  • Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,790 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price failed to settle above $75.000 and it started a fresh decline.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $74.55 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,790 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,800 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,820 resistance and it traded as high as $1,833 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a minor downside correction below the $1,830 level.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_gold-price-chart-1

The price even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,791 low to $1,833 high. However, the bulls are protecting the $1,820 support.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. The 50 hourly SMA is also near the trend line. If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,810 support.

An intermediate support could be the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,791 low to $1,833 high at $1,812. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,832 level.

The first major resistance is near the $1,835 level. If the price breaks the $1,835 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,850 zone.


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#183 - July 16, 2021, 05:58:09 AM

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Remains At Risk

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_gbp-usd

GBP/USD started a steady decline below the 1.3900 zone. EUR/GBP is rising and it might continue to rise if it breaks the 0.8600 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

  • The British Pound failed to recover above the key 1.3900 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3855 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8500 zone.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8550 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made many attempts to clear the 1.3900 and 1.3910 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a major decline and it settled below the 1.3850 pivot level.

The pair even broke the 1.3800 support level and it settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent low was formed near 1.3746 and the pair is now showing a lot of bearish signs.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_gbpusd-chart-1

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.3775 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3861 swing high to 1.3746 low. The first major resistance is now forming near the 1.3800 zone.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3861 swing high to 1.3746 low is also near the 1.3800 zone. The next major resistance near the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3855 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. To move into a positive zone, the pair must clear the bearish trend line and then 1.3900.

An immediate support on the downside is near the 1.3745 level. A downside break below the 1.3745 level might call for a fresh decline towards the 1.3700 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3650 level in the near term.


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#184 - July 19, 2021, 04:35:24 AM

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Rising US Inflation Supports the Bullish Case for Gold

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_gold

Last week, two events dominated the price action in financial markets ? the US inflation and Fed Chair Powell?s semiannual testimony. Both brought a new perspective to market participants, but summer trading conditions eventually prevailed.

Namely, despite the rising inflation environment and the market-moving statements from the Fed Chair, the market did not move much. It is typical for the market to consolidate during the summer months, and so July and August are known as months with declining volatility.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_us-10-year-treasury-yields

Rising Inflation ? Bullish for Gold and Equities

The US inflation data for the month of June showed inflation surging. It reached 5.4% YoY, much higher than expectations. In fact, inflation in the United States did not reach such levels for at least three decades.

Traders should remember that last year, in August, the Fed shifted its price stability mandate. It moved from targeting 2% to averaging 2% inflation. Therefore, higher inflation above 2% is not quite a concern for the Fed because we do not know what it is the period used for averaging.

In other words, if the Fed considers the last 12 months or more, then inflation is likely to be below the 2% AIT (Average Inflation Targeting) target. Because of that, the semiannual testimony that the Fed Chair held last week was critical for understanding how the Fed views inflation.

Fed Powell admitted that the central bank is surprised by how hot inflation is running, but he reiterated the fact that the Fed views it as transitory. We will find out further down the road if that is true or not.

In the meantime, with inflation at 5.4% and the US 10-Year Treasury yield at 1.3%, we talk about a negative 4.1% real yields. Therefore, investors are forced to look for alternatives.

One is gold. Commodities have typically served against higher inflation and this time should be no different. The price of gold, therefore, traded with a bid tone last week, rising from below $1,800 at the time inflation data was released, to over $1,830 before giving back some gains.

Another is the stock market. The US equities have outperformed their peers and keep trading close to their highs. The earnings season started strong, with financial services corporations posting strong earnings for the second quarter. If the trend continues, funds will keep pouring into the stock market.

All in all, rising inflation bodes well for gold and equities. The next thing to monitor is the tapering of the asset purchases from the Fed. It may be announced as soon as the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, if inflation keeps rising.



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#185 - July 19, 2021, 04:40:12 PM

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BTC and XRP ? Once again moving to the downside

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_btc

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been falling downwards and made a decrease of 9.14% from Sunday?s high of $32,289 to its lowest point today at $29,336. It has broken the significant horizontal support zone and is currently interacting with the descending support level from the channel in which it was since the ending days of May.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_btcusd-1h-1

On the hourly chart, you can see that this is another downfall back to its lows of the 26th of June and is eyeing out the one on the 22nd. This downward trajectory is the continuation of the descending triangle from the start of July which was broken on the downside today. This area is still considered as support so we might see a bounce for another minor recovery but the picture still looks bearish with the price most likely headed further down in the upcoming period.

If this last descending support breaks the price will move further down and with no significant support close it could continue moving to the $18,000 zone where the next one is. This would be expected in either way but potentially these low levels would be viewed as a good buying opportunity for some, which can lead to a minor recovery first.


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#186 - July 20, 2021, 12:37:31 PM

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EUR/USD Remains At Risk, USD/JPY Eyes More Upsides

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_Euro-EURUSD-1

EUR/USD started a major decline and it traded below 1.1800. USD/JPY is attempting an upside break above the 110.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

  • The Euro is facing an increase in selling pressure below the 1.1800 level.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY started a fresh increase after it found support near the 109.10 zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 110.00 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a close below 1.1850, the Euro started a major decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained bearish momentum and it broke the 1.1820 support zone.

The pair settled below the 1.1800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.1755 on FXOpen and the pair is still showing a lot of bearish signs. Recently, there was a minor upside correction above 1.1770.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_eurusd-chart-2

The pair surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1825 high to 1.1755 low. It is now facing resistance near the 1.1780 level.

The first key resistance is 1.1790 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1825 high to 1.1755 low. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

A close above 1.1780 and 1.1800 could open the doors for a steady increase. If not, the pair might continue to move down below 1.1765. An intermediate support is near the 1.1755 level.

The next major support is near the 1.1750 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1700 support in the near term.


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#187 - July 21, 2021, 05:19:52 AM

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LTC and EOS ? Higher high expected before the completion of this rise

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_ltc

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from Tuesday?s low of $104 and made an increase of 13.86% as it came up to $118.8 today. Since then we have seen some sideways movement but the price is in an upward trajectory overall.

Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen in Fundamental_ltcusd-1h-2

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that this increase is counted as the starting impulse from the new count which is why now a higher high would be expected. The sideways movement we?ve seen is in that case the 4th wave and is likely going to end as a flat correction, establishing support above the 0.786 Fib level.

If this is true, then the price is now set to continue moving to the upside for a higher high which would be the end of this first impulsive move after which a retracement would be expected of the same degree. But the price would then be expected to continue moving upward for at least one more wave if this is an ABC to the upside. If this is the 1st sub-wave of the higher degree impulsive move then we are to see even higher levels of the price of Litecoin in the upcoming period, potentially above the $150.


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#188 - July 22, 2021, 04:12:49 PM

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