Ikhtiar Trading Jurnal

Posts: 21197 · #3871 - December 16, 2025, 10:30:12 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 10:50:57 PM

Today I tried to sell GBPUSD with a stop loss I put at 1.3389 and there was take profit at 1.3355. GBPUSD on TF M15 shows a downward structural breakdown. Price formed a fairly clear lower low, accompanied by a bearish candle with a firm close. This is a signal of a change in short-term structure from neutral to bearish. Even though after that the price bounced, the bounce was unable to print a higher high. From a price action point of view, this is a classic characteristic of a pullback in a downtrend, where buyers are only able to make a temporary correction without changing the main direction.

My open sell position on GBPUSD hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.70. GBPUSD is trending upwards on the 15-month timeframe and is currently moving above the 200-day moving average (MA200), indicating buyer dominance has returned. Judging by the current pattern, I believe GBPUSD will likely rise again today.

Posts: 21197 · #3872 - December 16, 2025, 10:33:28 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 10:53:16 PM

Today I tried to sell GBPJPY with my stop loss at 207.89 and take profit at 207.32. GBPJPY on TF M15 shows increasingly clear selling pressure. This is marked by the appearance of a long-bodied bearish candle that penetrates the previous support area. This breakdown is a signal of a change in structure from neutral to bearish. Sellers appear to be entering aggressively, and buyers are unable to provide a significant reaction in the initial phase of the decline. In terms of price action, this condition shows the existence of a strong imbalance, where selling pressure is much more dominant than buying interest.

My open sell position on GBPJPY hit the take profit, resulting in a profit of $1.74. GBPJPY briefly fell to 206.74 on the 15-hour chart, forming new support. However, GBPJPY appears to be rising again and has begun to move above the 200-day moving average (MA).

Posts: 21197 · #3873 - December 16, 2025, 10:36:02 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 10:55:36 PM

Today I tried to buy USDCAD with my stop loss at 1.3758 and take profit at 1.3786. USDCAD on TF M15 shows market conditions that tend to move in a transition phase between a downtrend and consolidation. In terms of large structure, bearish pressure still looks quite dominant, but the downward momentum is not as strong as before. This is reflected in price movements that begin to level off and often reverse direction in relatively the same area, indicating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.

My open buy position on USDCAD hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.16. USDCAD on the 15-day moving average (MTF) showed a decline and even formed a bearish engulfing candle. There are no signs yet that USDCAD will rise, and we can still look for sell opportunities today.

Posts: 21197 · #3874 - December 16, 2025, 10:38:29 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 10:58:50 PM

Today I tried to sell EURJPY with my stop loss at 182.64 and take profit at 182.13. EURJPY on TF M15 in the downward phase saw a series of consecutive bearish candles with minimal lower wicks. This pattern shows aggressive selling pressure and minimal resistance from buyers. After the decline reaches its lowest point, candles begin to appear with a longer lower wick and a smaller body. A pattern like this indicates a buying reaction in the low price area, although it is not yet strong enough to reverse the direction of the overall trend.

My open sell position on EURJPY hit the take profit level, resulting in a profit of $1.54. On the M15 chart, EURJPY appears to have experienced a significant decline, even reaching 181.67, forming a new support area.

Posts: 21197 · #3875 - December 16, 2025, 11:12:43 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 11:01:33 PM

Today I tried to sell USDJPY with my stop loss at 155.47 and take profit at 155.07. USDJPY on TF M15 if seen from the candlestick pattern, a strong decline is marked by several bearish candles with relatively large bodies and closes close to the low, which reflects seller dominance. After this impulse phase, candles appear with smaller bodies and more balanced wicks, indicating that selling pressure is starting to decrease and the market is entering an indecision condition.

My open sell position on USDJPY hit the take profit, resulting in a profit of $1.16. USDJPY was seen falling on the 15-month timeframe, but now it appears to be starting to rise again and is attempting to break through the 200-day moving average (MA). If USDJPY fails to break through the 200-day moving average (MA), it is likely to fall again.

#3876 - **Today** at 07:10:30 PM

Posts: 21197 · #3876 - December 16, 2025, 11:15:19 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 11:04:14 PM

Today I tried to buy USDCHF with my stop loss at 0.7951 and take profit at 0.7971. USDCHF on TF M15 shows that previously the price was moving under fairly consistent downward pressure. This can be observed from the price position which is below the red moving average line for quite a long period, as well as the formation of a series of lower highs and lower lows. The moving average line itself had decreased with a fairly clear slope, indicating seller dominance in that phase. However, approaching the right side of the graph, the slope of the average line begins to slope and even slightly flattens. This is an early signal that bearish momentum is starting to weaken.

My open buy position on USDCHF hit my stop-loss, resulting in a loss of $1.38. USDCHF on the M15 timeframe showed a decline and formed a bullish pin bar candle, indicating buyer resistance after the USDCHF decline.

Posts: 21197 · #3877 - December 16, 2025, 11:17:51 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 11:06:33 PM

Today I tried to sell USDX with my stop loss at 98.40 and take profit at 98.11. USDX on TF M15 Support and resistance analysis provides clearer context regarding price reaction areas. The main support area is seen in the last low zone, where the price bounced several times and formed a fairly long lower wick. This level is an important area because if it is penetrated with a strong closing candle, the potential for further decline will be increasingly open.

My open sell position on the USDX hit the take profit level, resulting in a $1.10 profit. The USDX remains under seller pressure on the 15-month timeframe and shows no signs of rebounding. This can be seen from the USDX's movement, which is currently below the 200-day moving average (MA200).

Posts: 21197 · #3878 - December 16, 2025, 11:19:59 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 11:08:41 PM

Today I tried to sell gold with my stop loss at 4332.37 and take profit at 4285.90. Gold on TF M15 If analyzed from candlestick patterns, the previous upward phase was marked by bullish candles with relatively solid bodies and closes close to the high, reflecting strong buyer dominance. However, after the price reaches the peak area, candles begin to appear with a smaller body and a fairly long upper wick. This pattern indicates selling pressure in the high price area and increased profit taking.

My open sell position on gold hit my take profit, resulting in a profit of $20.11. I believe gold is currently falling for a correction after a period of rising, and I expect it to continue falling today.

Posts: 21197 · #3879 - December 16, 2025, 11:22:58 PM

Quote from: Ikhtiar on December 15, 2025, 11:10:53 PM

Today I tried to sell CADJPY with my stop loss at 112.86 and take profit at 112.52. CADJPY on TF M15 From a price action perspective, the price movement structure after a sharp decline shows a consolidation phase in a relatively narrow range. The price moved horizontally with small fluctuations, forming a small higher low but also failed to print a significant higher high. This indicates that the market is in a temporary state of balance, where selling and buying pressure are relatively comparable.

My open sell position on CADJPY hit the take profit level, resulting in a profit of $0.78. CADJPY has successfully fallen on the M15 timeframe and broken through the support level at 112.30. I believe CADJPY will continue to decline today.

Posts: 21197 · #3880 - December 17, 2025, 10:31:52 PM

Today I attempted to sell EURUSD with a stop-loss at 1.1761 and a take-profit at 1.1728. The EURUSD trend on the 15-month timeframe is likely bearish. This is evident from the lower high and lower low patterns that began to form after the price failed to break through the resistance area around the moving average line. Selling pressure intensified when the price broke through minor support and moved sharply downward. This decline indicates that sellers are beginning to dominate the market, although at some points, temporary pullbacks or upward corrections were observed.

Posts: 21197 · #3881 - December 17, 2025, 10:34:00 PM

Today I attempted to sell GBPUSD with my stop-loss placed at 1.3408 and take-profit at 1.3353. GBPUSD on the M15 timeframe. From a candlestick pattern perspective, in the peak area before the sharp decline, there were many candlesticks with relatively small bodies and fairly long upper wicks. This pattern indicates price rejection at the high and a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Afterward, a bearish candlestick appeared with a large body that penetrated the consolidation area, signaling a valid bearish breakout.

Posts: 21197 · #3882 - December 17, 2025, 10:36:18 PM

Today I attempted to buy GBPJPY with a stop-loss order at 207.96 and a take-profit order at 208.53. GBPJPY on the M15 timeframe exhibited quite aggressive movement, typical of a pair with high volatility. Overall, the price structure showed a phase of decline, consolidation, and then a fairly strong reversal upwards before finally returning to a more subdued movement in the upper area.

Posts: 21197 · #3883 - December 17, 2025, 10:38:24 PM

Today I attempted to buy USDCAD with a stop-loss at 1.3769 and a take-profit at 1.3805. On the M15 chart, USDCAD price action showed a fairly clear reaction at key areas. The support break during the decline was followed by a strong bearish acceleration, confirming that the area previously held significant demand. However, the price's failure to continue its decline after reaching the low indicates that sellers are running out of steam.

Posts: 21197 · #3884 - December 17, 2025, 10:41:23 PM

Today I attempted to buy EURJPY with a stop-loss at 182.51 and a take-profit at 183.00. On the M15 chart, EURJPY prices began to gradually form higher lows and higher highs. The upward movement was quite structured and not too sporadic, indicating stable buying interest. The previously declining moving average began to slope downward and then functioned as dynamic support. As long as the price remains above this area, the bullish bias remains intact.

Posts: 21197 · #3885 - December 17, 2025, 10:43:29 PM

Today I attempted to buy USDJPY with a stop-loss at 155.42 and a take-profit at 155.93. The early bearish phase of USDJPY on the 15-month chart is characterized by a predominance of bearish candlesticks with medium-sized bodies and relatively short upper wicks. This reflects stable selling pressure and minimal resistance from buyers. In the lower consolidation area, candlesticks with small bodies and relatively long lower wicks are starting to appear. This pattern indicates price rejection at the low end and is an early indication that sellers are losing momentum.