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Fxortrader

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The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Wednesday (07/03/2019) after safe-haven sentiment re-emerged around the issue of the US-China trade war.

At the G20 summit in Japan on Saturday, Washington and Beijing agreed to restart trade talks after US President Donald Trump offered concessions.

But investors are worried about possible resolutions for the year-round trade war between the two largest economies in the world, especially given the failure of recent talks and Trump's comments that any agreement must refer to US interests.

Sentiment was also disrupted by Washington's threat of tariffs on additional EU $ 4 billion in goods in a long-term dispute about aircraft subsidies.
The greenback weakened against the safe haven yen, down 0.2 percent at 107.66, after briefly rising to a 12-day high of 108.53 reached earlier in the week.
#391 - July 03, 2019, 02:19:21 PM

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Increasing market expectations for interest rates by the Federal Reserve could potentially trigger an increase in gold prices and equity markets after last night a number of US economic data was released lower than expectations such as ADP Non Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders .

Furthermore, today's focus will be on the release of retail sales data from Australia at 8:30 WIB as well as retail sales data from the Euro zone at 16:00 WIB which will potentially move the Australian dollar and the euro.
#392 - July 04, 2019, 05:32:32 AM

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Today at 13:30 GMT+00:00 Non Farm Payroll is taking place on the financial market. This is one of the most anticipated financial releases. In general, it is used as a gauge of economic health in the United States. 

At the moment, financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the US labor statistics for June on Friday, July 5, at 13:30 (GMT+00:00). This report may have a significant impact on the Fed's views on the further rate of monetary policy adjustments.

Recent economic releases from the US were rather weak. In June, the consumer confidence index dropped to 121.5, which was lower than the forecasted value of 131.1. Preliminary data from ADP indicated an increase in the number of people employed in the nonfarm sector of the country by 102K compared to market expectations of 140K. ISM non-manufacturing PMI slowed down from 56.9 to 55.1.

At the same time, experts expect an improvement in key labor market indicators for June: the number of people employed in the US nonfarm sector will accelerate from 75,000 to 160,000; the growth of the average hourly earnings will be 0.3% (m/m) in comparison to the previous value of 0.2% (m/m); the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.6%. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values of the indicators.
#393 - July 05, 2019, 08:08:56 AM

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#394 - Today at 12:05:02 PM

Fxortrader

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The focus of market participants today will be on the release of a number of US economic data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings at 19:30 WIB. If the data released is better than the estimate, it is likely to strengthen the performance of the US dollar and reduce market expectations for the interest rate cut at the end of this month.

In addition, at the same time, Canada also released data on Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. If the data released is worse than the estimated opportunity to push up USDCAD.
#394 - July 05, 2019, 01:35:18 PM

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EURUSD weakened below 1.1220 after the release of the Eurozone Sentix economic health index in July was negative, even lower than last month and also forecast.
The sentix economic index for the Eurozone fell to its lowest level since November 2014. Although the stock market tends to calm and the resumption of customs talks between the US and China, the situation and expectations are currently falling.
At the beginning of July the economic health index in all EU member countries was -5.5, lower than the estimated +0.3, and also the June Sentix of -3.3.

The euro was also pressured by the dollar due to the waning prospects of the Fed's interest cuts after data on the US non-agricultural sector employment was still large, signaling the US economic expansion was still on the rise.
#395 - July 08, 2019, 12:54:08 PM

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Sterling is still hard to strengthen through 1.2550 because of the pressure surrounding the prospect of a Bank of England interest rate cut. The pound briefly hovered near a six-month low against the dollar on Monday as investors continued to bet lower British interest rates and add to their short positions on Queen Elizabeth's domestic currency.

When major central banks around the world including the Fed turn to monetary policy, investors bet that the Bank of England will follow suit. Last week it sparked investor expectations for a basic 25-point decline over the next 12 months, weakening the pound.

Uncertainty about Britain's departure from the European Union (Brexit), as well as who will become Britain's new prime minister and lead the country out of the bloc, add to sterling weakness.

The pound was flat at $ 1.2529, 7 pips higher than Friday's close and not far from the low of $ 1.2481 reached on Friday.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reflects pessimism about the outlook for the British currency, with speculators extending their Short positions in pounds to $ 4.68 billion, the highest level since early February.
#396 - July 08, 2019, 12:55:55 PM

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The US dollar surged on Friday after US jobs data added more than expected in June, easing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively to prevent a slowdown. In addition, the opportunities for Europe and the UK that have the potential to cut interest rates have also become the focus of investors.

Other market movers, Data Industrial Production and German Trade Balance which will be released at 1:00 p.m. are likely to become movers of EURUSD.
#397 - July 08, 2019, 12:58:18 PM

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EURUSD has the potential to move down to test the support level at 1.1170 - 1.1140 because a stronger dollar is supported by US labor data, but if Industrial Production and German Trade Balance data is released better than expectations EURUSD has the potential to test resistance at 1.1270 - 1.1290.
#398 - July 08, 2019, 12:59:57 PM

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Quote from: Fxortrader on July 08, 2019, 12:59:57 PM
EURUSD has the potential to move down to test the support level at 1.1170 - 1.1140 because a stronger dollar is supported by US labor data, but if Industrial Production and German Trade Balance data is released better than expectations EURUSD has the potential to test resistance at 1.1270 - 1.1290.
I like your analysis. many things that must be considered when making analysis. what about my recommendation is to give a stop loss value to our trade so that we don't fall into the MC?
#399 - July 12, 2019, 06:57:28 PM

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Quote from: Fxortrader on July 08, 2019, 12:59:57 PM
EURUSD has the potential to move down to test the support level at 1.1170 - 1.1140 because a stronger dollar is supported by US labor data, but if Industrial Production and German Trade Balance data is released better than expectations EURUSD has the potential to test resistance at 1.1270 - 1.1290.
Your analysis is very good ... what is your analysis next week for the Eurusd pair?
#400 - July 14, 2019, 01:31:57 AM

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#401 - Today at 12:05:02 PM

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The release of Chinese economic data such as GDP and industrial production scheduled for 9:00 WIB will potentially be the market mover in early trading on Monday amid market concerns over the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China and the potential for a global economic slowdown.

Furthermore, market attention will be focused on the speech of FOMC member Jhon Williams scheduled for 19:50 WIB. If he gives a view that strengthens the chances of reducing US interest rates at the end of this month, it could potentially reduce the US dollar.
#401 - July 15, 2019, 12:01:53 PM

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Quote from: Driverfx on July 14, 2019, 01:31:57 AM
Your analysis is very good ... what is your analysis next week for the Eurusd pair?
EURUSD has a chance to move up in the short term amid the trend of a weakening US dollar and optimistic Eurozone industrial production data last week that eased fears of an economic slowdown in the region to test resistance levels at 1.1300 - 1.1350. If it moves down, the closest support level is 1.1240 - 1.1190.
#402 - July 15, 2019, 12:03:59 PM

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Speech by Fed chairman Jerome Powell and FOMC member Charles Evans scheduled for 0:00 WIB and 2:30 WIB on Wednesday will be the main focus of the market today amid markets waiting for the latest instructions from US central bank officials on the back of a reduced outlook. benchmark interest rates ahead of their meeting later this month.

Previously, market attention will be focused on the RBA minutes at 8:30 WIB which will be the driving force for AUDUSD, where the central bank indicates it is ready to cut interest rates "if needed". Afterwards the focus will be on the UK wage index and labor data at 3:30 p.m. WIB, BOE Governor Mark Carney's speech at 19:00 WIB and US retail sales data at 19:30 WIB.
#403 - July 17, 2019, 12:31:09 AM

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The outlook for a stronger US dollar and potential easing of monetary policy from the European Central Bank has the potential to trigger a decline in the EURUSD in the short term to test the support at 1.1180 - 1.1130. However, if optimistic euro zone inflation data is released, it is likely to trigger an increase in EURUSD to target resistance at 1.1240 - 1.1290.
#404 - July 17, 2019, 03:18:23 PM

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The British pound fell to its lowest level in more than two years in early trade in Europe on Wednesday because of concerns over "Hard Brexit" and elections that might demand a higher risk premium for all sterling assets.

The Times of London reported that Boris Johnson, the favorite to win the current Conservative Party leadership contest and take over as Prime Minister, polls showed that the election would not give any party a clear majority. Johnson has pledged to bring Britain out of the European Union in October even if it means canceling a transitional agreement that will reduce the blow to the British economy.

The pound fell almost 1% on Tuesday against the dollar and resumed its decline on Wednesday at $ 1.2393, after falling below $ 1.24 for the first time since April 2017. Sterling was also lower against the euro, falling so far at 1, 1047, the lowest since September 2017, before bouncing to 1.1058.

"We expect GBP to fall further, even faster than here, with volatility rising like that," said Helen Thomas, CEO of consultant Blonde Money at Oxford.
#405 - July 17, 2019, 03:20:15 PM
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