GBP/USD is finishing the year on the front foot, with the pair crossing above the 1.3650 mark for the first time since May 2018 and printing highs during the European morning session in the 1.3680s. No particular news or theme is behind the upside, as sterling traders continue to juggle the themes of Covid-19 spread and lockdowns (will the UK go into national lockdown in January), vaccine distribution (how quickly can the UK achieve herd immunity) and Brexit (though a bare-bones deal has been agreed and no deal avoided, what next for the UK’s service sector, for which nothing has yet been agreed).
Month, quarter and year-end portfolio flows appear to again be distorting the price action on the final trading day of the year; amid a lack of any catalysts, EUR is the G10’s underperforming currency, which is holding the Dollar Index flat (EUR/USD makes up 50% of the basket of USD major exchange rates that make up the index), though the USD is underperforming versus the majority of its major counterparts. GBP is one beneficiary of the weaker US dollar. Over the coming hours, trading conditions are likely to significantly die down given market participants leaving early for New Year’s Eve celebrations.