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Daily Market Analysis by Solid ECN | *Video*

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (1) develops, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 3 formed, a correction developed as the second wave ii of 3, and the third wave iii of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of iii, and the fifth wave (v) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 118.00?120.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 113.10.


#16 - January 11, 2022, 06:11:03 AM
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XAG/USD Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, a downward correction developed as the wave (2) of 3, and the development of the third wave (3) of 3 started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave ii of 1, and the formation of the wave iii of 1 has started, within which the development of the wave (iii) of iii has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 26.76?28.68. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.40.

#17 - January 11, 2022, 08:05:13 AM
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EURUSD Technical Analysis

Current trend
The European currency shows moderate growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, continuing the development of flat dynamics in the short term.

The day before, EUR/USD showed a rather active decline, which was caused by a short-term strengthening of the American currency, which is supported by the expectations of an imminent increase in interest rates by the US Fed. Last week, the regulator released the minutes of its last meeting, which demonstrate "hawkish" rhetoric. Representatives of the department noted the negative effect of the continuing growth in consumer inflation, as well as the still tense situation on the labor market. In 2022, the regulator may increase the rate 3 or more times, and the first adjustment may occur as early as March, subject to the acceleration of the curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program.

Monday's macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone provided little support to the euro. Sentix Investor Confidence in January rose from 13.5 to 14.9 points against the forecast of a reduction to 12 points. The Unemployment Rate in the region in November, as expected, decreased from 7.3% to 7.2%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1363, 1.1400, 1.1422, 1.1460.
Support levels: 1.1329, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1220.

Watch the video analysis on YouTube


#18 - January 11, 2022, 09:34:15 AM
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ETH/USD, Technical Analysis

Current trend
Last week, ETH/USD continued to decline and reached four-month lows around 3125.00 (Murray [2/8]), while leaving the descending channel. Further movement of quotations is likely to continue to the levels of 2812.50 (Murray [1/8]) and 2500.00 (Murray [0/8]).

In general, the downtrend in the asset remains, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone; however, the reversal of Stochastic from the overbought zone does not exclude an upward correction. In case of a breakout of the lower border of the descending channel in the area of 3270.00, the trend is likely to change to the levels of 3540.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, the center line of Bollinger Bands) and 3750.00 (Fibonacci retracement 50.0%, Murray [4/8]). Nevertheless, a decline in quotations is the most likely scenario at the moment.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 3270, 3540, 3750
Support levels: 3125, 2812, 2500

#19 - January 11, 2022, 03:19:20 PM
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Key Releases


United States of America
The US currency is strengthening against the yen today and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the euro and the pound.

Investors are waiting for today's speech by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell in front of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs of the US Senate. It is expected that before approving his candidacy for the post of head of the US regulator for a new four-year term, Powell will answer questions from Senators who will be interested in the measures taken by the US Fed to combat high inflation. Thus, Powell can clarify the further steps of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. Currently, it is believed that the beginning of the rate hike may begin as early as March, and not in the summer or at the end of the year, as previously thought. Moreover, Goldman Sachs experts expect four increases at once during the year. In general, Powell's comments can cause a significant market movement.

Eurozone
The European currency is strengthening against the yen today and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the USD and the pound.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the attention of European investors is focused on the comments of representatives of the European Central Bank regarding the high inflationary pressure on the European economy. It should be recalled that in December, the consumer price index in the eurozone countries increased by a record 5.0%. Today, the head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, said that she understands the concerns of citizens about high prices, and confirmed that they can trust the ECB in solving this problem. According to her, the bank stands for price stability, which is crucial for fixing inflation expectations and confidence in the currency. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the ECB still does not expect inflation to exceed the 2.0% target in the medium term. The new governor of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, noted that the price increase may continue longer than expected. In general, European officials have not yet specified new ways to combat inflationary pressure.

United Kingdom
The British currency is strengthening against the yen today and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the USD and the euro.

December retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) was published today. On an annualized basis, sales increased by 0.6%, which is better than market expectations (0.3%), but worse than the November growth of 1.8%. In general, BRC specialists are skeptical. They believe that retail trade will face significant pressure this year, as consumer spending will be restrained by rising inflation, an increase in energy bills and a tax increase coming in April. It should be noted that the British government is trying to mitigate inflationary pressure on the economy. Thus, The Times newspaper reported that the Ministry of Finance of the United Kingdom is considering the possibility of reducing the "green levy", which is levied on electricity consumption, in order to slow down the increase in prices in the energy market.

Japan
The Japanese currency is weakening today against its main competitors - the pound, the USD and the euro.

The focus of investors' attention remains the epidemiological situation in the country, which continues to be difficult. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said today that the government will maintain the current strict restrictions on entry into the country until the end of February, although a number of exceptions may be made for humanitarian reasons. Currently, Japan has one of the strictest border regimes in the world, which prohibits residents from entering the country without Japanese citizenship, including foreign members of Japanese families and people permanently living in Japan. It is believed that this measure slows down the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron strain in the country. It also should be noted that according to the quarterly survey of the Bank of Japan, inflation expectations of Japanese households have risen to a two-year high. 78.8% of respondents expect prices to rise during the year, which gives investors hope that the Japanese regulator will still be able to push the inflation rate to the target level of 2.0%.

Australia
The Australian currency is weakening against the euro, the pound and the USD today, but is strengthening against the yen.

Australian economic data released today turned out to be controversial. Retail sales in November accelerated growth from 4.9% to 7.3%, which is higher than the 3.9% expected by investors. However, the positive effect of these data was offset by weak trade statistics. The volume of exports of Australian goods in November increased by 2.0%, and imports into the country increased by 6.0%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 10.781 to 9.423B Australian dollars.

Oil
Oil quotes are trying to grow today.

Prices are rising due to the increasing optimism of investors. Market participants believe that the growth in oil demand will be maintained, since the governments of the leading consumer states are abandoning overly strict quarantine measures to curb the coronavirus pandemic caused by the Omicron strain. In addition, prices are supported by the slow increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries, which have not yet chosen their quotas, and interruptions in the supply of "black gold" from Libya. During the day, investors are waiting for the publication of a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves in the USA from API. Last time, the figure fell by 6,432M barrels. The continuation of the trend may give additional support to oil quotes.
#20 - January 11, 2022, 05:57:12 PM

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USD/JPY
the market is waiting for the US inflation data

Current trend
The US dollar is showing weak gains against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, trying to recover from a noticeable correction late last week.

The instrument is testing 115.35 for a breakout; however, market activity remains subdued as investors await the publication of the updated US inflation statistics for December today. According to forecasts, the annual rate of growth in consumer prices could reach 7%, which will be an absolute record in the last 40 years. In turn, the US Fed is ready to raise interest rates, and the first adjustment in the coming year may take place already at the March meeting. The Fed's Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the US Congress the day before, confirmed the regulator's readiness to prevent further entrenchment of inflation, which until recently was called a "temporary phenomenon".

Statistics from Japan released today has an ambiguous impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The Eco Watchers Survey on Current Situation in December rose slightly from 56.3 to 56.4 points, but the Survey on the Economic Outlook for the same period fell sharply from 53.4 to 49.4 points.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the multidirectional nature of trading in the short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is rapidly approaching its lows, which indicates the oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 115.50, 116.00, 116.50, 117.00.
Support levels: 115.00, 114.50, 114.00, 113.50.

#21 - January 12, 2022, 10:44:35 AM
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AUDUSD Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C. Now, wave C of (2) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower level i of C has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of C, and the development of the third wave iii of C has started. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742?0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7277.
#22 - January 12, 2022, 02:14:57 PM
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CAC 40 Technical Analysis by Solid ECN Securities


The French market is preparing for the start of reporting

Current trend
The CAC 40 index is correcting down ahead of the start of the annual reports of companies, being at around 7133.0.

The main wave of publication of financial results will start next week. Tech stocks have been leading throughout the week due to a correction in the bond market. Among the growth leaders are the shares of software maker Sopra Steria Group SA, whose annual profit forecast was significantly raised, exceeding 5B euros. Now the company's shares are growing by 5.67% and, apparently, the positive dynamics may continue.

The main support for technology companies comes from the bond market, which continues a serious downward correction. At the beginning of this week, 10-year bonds traded at a yield of 0.298%, and now the figure has fallen to 0.229%. However, the most significant downtrend is shown by 8-year bonds of France, the yield on which only yesterday fell by 42.86%, and now has returned to the negative zone again at the level of -0.030%.

The growth leaders in the index are Renault SA (+4.58%), Stellantis NV (+3.45%), STMicroelectronics NV (+3.09%), BNP Paribas SA (+2.50%).

Among the leaders of the decline are Kering SA (-3.61%), Hermes International (-3.17%), L?Oreal SA (-2.81%), Teleperformance SE (-2.67%).

Support and resistance
The quotes of the asset are traded within the global ascending channel, having reversed downwards. Technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations began to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars, being above the transition level.

Support levels: 7074.0, 6720.0.
Resistance levels: 7238.0, 7450.0.

#23 - January 14, 2022, 10:11:57 AM
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XAG/USD: wave analysis
The pair may grow.


On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, a downward correction developed as the wave (2) of 3, and the development of the third wave (3) of 3 started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave ii of 1, and the formation of the wave iii of 1 has started, within which the development of the wave (iii) of iii has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 26.76?28.68. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.91.

#24 - January 17, 2022, 07:17:24 AM
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AUD/USD
Australian currency develops a "bearish" momentum

Current trend
The Australian dollar shows an active decline against the US currency during the Asian session, developing the corrective momentum of last Friday and testing the level of 0.7200 for a breakdown.
The US dollar is again in demand on the market amid expectations of an increase in interest rates by the US Fed. In addition, traders are somewhat concerned about the rapid increase in the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus, which threatens the recovery of the global economy.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is rapidly approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.72, 0.725, 0.73, 0.7328.
Support levels: 0.716, 0.7128, 0.71, 0.705.
#25 - January 18, 2022, 07:41:19 AM
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Gold is consolidating at $1800

Current trend
Gold prices are consolidating near the psychological support at $1800, developing a weak downtrend since the end of last trading week. Demand for the precious metal is moderately declining as investor activity recovers. Traders ignore the difficult epidemiological situation in the world and focus on the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by leading financial regulators. First of all, one should expect a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, while the European Central Bank is in no hurry to take active steps, waiting for more clear signals from the economy.

The macroeconomic statistics from the US released the day before did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the instrument; however, it attracted attention with a sharp drop in the new york Empire State Manufacturing Index. In January, the indicator fell from 31.9 to -0.7 points, while forecasts suggested a decline to only 25.7 points.

Today, investors are focused on the statistics from the US on the dynamics of the construction market and data from Canada on the Consumer Price Index for December. In turn, statistics on inflation in Germany and the UK will be released in Europe.

Support and resistance
In the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowing from above, reflecting the correctional decline in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic shows a more confident decline, but at the moment it is quickly approaching its lows, indicating growing risks of the instrument being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: $1814, $1823, $1831.
Support levels: $1805, $1800, $1790, $1778.32

#26 - January 19, 2022, 08:02:50 AM
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USD/JPY, Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (1) develops, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 3 formed, a correction developed as the second wave ii of 3, and the third wave iii of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of iii, and the fifth wave (v) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 118.00?120.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 113.10.




#27 - January 21, 2022, 05:55:56 AM
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McDonald?s Corp. Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may rise.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, as part of which the wave 3 of (5) continues forming. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, as part of which wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will rise in wave (iii) of iii to 280.00?295.00. The level of 244.07 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.
#28 - January 21, 2022, 08:25:41 AM
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GBP/USD
The pound is developing flat dynamics


Current trend
The pound is traded in different directions against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near 1.3600 and local lows from January 18.
The US dollar is actively recovering its positions at the end of the week; however, its growth is limited by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US. Disappointing data came out the day before, reflecting an increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims from 231K to 286K, while analysts expected a further decrease in the figure to 220K. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended January 7 increased from 1.551M to 1.635M, which also turned out to be worse than preliminary market estimates at 1.58M.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of December data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the UK. Analysts' forecasts, however, do not promise any support for the pound, and therefore the corrective sentiment in the asset may develop further.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing into a horizontal plane. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of mixed dynamics of trading in the short and ultra-short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse into a horizontal plane, indicating risks of an oversold pound in the ultra-short term. Under these conditions, trading participants should look at the possibility of the appearance of corrective dynamics for the instrument in the nearest time intervals.


Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.
Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3460.




#29 - January 21, 2022, 09:33:05 AM
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AUD/USD
The Australian dollar ends the week with flat dynamics

Current trend

The Australian dollar, thanks to the active actions of the ?bears?, is losing ground at the end of the current trading week, testing the level of 0.7200 for a breakdown. AUD/USD pair is losing ground and moving into the ?red? zone, despite the fact that there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of the American currency. The data released the day before from the US failed to support the ?bullish? sentiment of investors in the US currency, neither within the data on Initial Jobless Claims, nor on the statistics of Existing Home Sales.

In turn, on Thursday, the Australian dollar managed to enlist fairly strong support from market participants after the publication of a strong report on the Australian labor market for December. The Employment Change increased by 64.8K jobs, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 30K jobs. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the country in December fell to new record lows at around 4.2%, although analysts' forecasts suggested a decline from only 4.6% to 4.5%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show flat dynamics. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is stretching into a line along the zero level, signaling an approximate balance of power between sellers and buyers in the short term. Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, near the level of ?20? and indicating the continuation of the ?bullish? momentum since the middle of the week.

Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7300, 0.7328, 0.7369.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7128, 0.7100.

#30 - January 21, 2022, 01:31:20 PM
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