Bitcoin is currently in a bull cycle similar to previous cycles. Bitcoin has a notorious 4 year cycle that almost everyone knows about due to it's halving. This means the current bull cycle should extend into late 2025. However, things may be a little different from what most people would expect this time.
This is an all-time Bitcoin logarithmic chart going back to 2009 which is when Bitcoin was released. This is a monthly chart so all the information can fit onto a single screen.
The red line shows a trajectory similar to an airborne projectile of some kind. As time goes on, the velocity is slowing. We all know what happens next when velocity slows down too much. Gravity takes over!
The green lines were drawn from the lows to the highs. I realize they may be off by a candle or so depending on data source or where somebody want to put the start/end times, but this doesn't change the overall concept. Every bull cycle has lower growth in terms of %. This is just a fact.
There are 3 important notes I want to make other than slowing velocity:
- Bitcoin is already extended up to the red line this cycle. Which just so happens to coincide with the strong psychological $100000 level.
- Notice how the growth percentages are drastically lower each cycle. Bitcoin is currently up more than 500% from it's low point this cycle. The previous cycle only made a 1829% move. So the high for this cycle may have already been made.
- We are about 25 candle into the current cycle. Each cycle has different durations from low point to high point though. The shortest cycle was only 28 candles. Bitcoin may very well have made it's high point this cycle already. If not, there may be only a few months left of bullish movement.
See my previous analysis using a regular linear chart which I made near the top. Both long-term charts are in agreement.
