2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

AUD is pulling back after a lower-than-expected CPI reading for February. AUDUSD failed to break above the 0.6710 resistance zone and is now pulling back towards the 200-hour moving average (purple line).

Ripple

Cryptocurrencies are rebounding today despite the still-uncertain news about the conflict between the CFTC and the Binance exchange. Among all the projects, Ripple (XRP) stands out again. Fintech company Ripple will hold a closed-door consultation with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 30. The market took the news of the warring parties meeting in court as a signal of a potential settlement. Bringing it about would be a victory for the entire decentralized finance sector in the States. It would undermine the SEC's decision-making role and reduce the fear of the prospect of restrictions proposed by Gary Gensler.

Ripple is cited by many analysts as one of the future foundations of a digital financial infrastructure based on blockchain technology. For example, recently Ripple's blockchain was able to process a $755 million transaction, in 4 seconds, for a fee of tenths of a dollar (0.01 XRP). By the crypto market, the company is seen as a major competitor to the interbank market, which charges high commissions for processing international transfers;
Iron Key Capital analysts point to Ripple as a winner in the multi-billion dollar global payments market. In addition to Ripple itself, cryptocurrencies Stellar and Algorand are also gaining today. Both of them, along with Ripple, have been pointed out as being integrated into the new ISO20022 international settlement standard. This system will replace the SWIFT standard in the coming years. Ripple's victory with the SEC is expected by Ark Invest fund manager CathieWood, among others;
The next few weeks may bring a 'rally under the event' in the price of Ripple tokens. A similar course of events is characteristic of the crypto market at the same time as it often ends in a sell-off (profit realization, so-called 'fact selling', as the decisive moment is very close. This was the case, among others, with the price of Cardano, which implemented smart contract technology in September 2021, and Ethereum Merge, in the summer of 2022.



The largest holders of Ripple so called 'whales' have increased their buying activity in view of the upcoming SEC decision.



Ripple chart, D1 interval. The price has overcome the key resistance near $0.55, set by previous price reactions. The chart, which resembles a technical saucer formation, may indicate a more permanent reversal of the downward trend.

US100

• US indices finished yesterday's trading higher with all major Wall Street indices adding 1% or more. S&P 500 gained 1.42%, Dow Jones moved 1.00% higher and Nasdaq jumped 1.79%. Russell 2000 gained 1.08%
• Nasdaq gained over 20% off December low and has entered a technical bull market.
• Indices from Asia-Pacific trade mostly higher. S&P/ASX 200 gained 1%, Kospi added 0.6%, Nift 50 moved 0.8% higher while Nikkei dropped 0.6%
• Indices from China traded 0.2-0.5% higher
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today
• Fed Chair Powell has reportedly told Republican Representatives that Fed expects 1 more rate hike in 2023
• ECB Schnabel said that banking troubles may have a disinflationary effect. On the other hand, she warned that labour costs indicate possibility of second round inflationary effects
• Fitch noted that there were 14 sovereign default events since 2020, compared to 19 sovereign default events in whole 2000-2019 period
• Chinese premier Li Qiang said that his country will strengthen macro policy adjustments and act to boost consumption and investments
• UK car production increased 13.1% YoY in February as supply chain pressures eased. This was the first monthly increase in output in three months. 81% of all cars produced in UK were exported, with EU being main destination
• New Zealand's building permits slumped 9% MoM in February. On annual basis drop reached 29.2% YoY
• Major cryptocurrencies trade mixed - Bitcoin gains 1.2%, Ethereum adds 0.1%, Dogecoin drops 0.7% and Ripple trades 3.6% lower
• Energy commodities trade mixed - oil gains around 0.3% while US natural gas prices drop 1.7%
• Precious metals trade mostly higher - silver adds 0.7%, platinum trades 0.8% higher and palladium gains 0.6%. Gold trades flat
• AUD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while USD and EUR lag the most

Nasdaq-100 (US100) trades around 20% above the December 2022 low and therefore has entered a bull market, at least from a technical point of view. However, for any larger upward move to be delivered, a break above a psychological, mid-term resistance zone in the 13,000 pts area would be required.

AUDJPY

• US indices finished another trading day higher. S&P 500 gained 0.57%, Dow Jones moved 0.43% higher and Nasdaq jumped 0.73%. Russell 2000 was a laggard and dropped 0.18%
• Indices from Asia-Pacific followed into footsteps of US peers and traded higher. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 gained around 0.8% each, Kospi added 0.9% and Nifty 50 traded 1.0%. Indices from China traded up to 0.8% higher
• DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today
• Reuters reports that Japan will set up a panel to discuss possibility of implementing digital yen backed by Bank of Japan
• Turkey has approved Finland's NATO membership bid, clearing the final hurdle for the Nordic country to join the alliance. Sweden is still waiting for approval from Turkey and Hungary
• According to Reuters report, OPEC+ JMMC is most likely to recommend leaving output cuts unchanged at a meeting on Monday
• The Japanese trade and industry ministry announced that it will impose export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. While it was stated that restrictions do not target any specific country, most take it as a step against China
• Official Chinese manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.6 to 51.9 pts in March (exp. 51.6). Services gauge jumped from 56.3 to 58.2 pts (exp. 55.0)
• Japanese industrial production increased 4.5% MoM in February (exp. 2.7% MoM)
• Japanese retail sales increased 1.4% MoM in February (exp. -0.3% MoM)
• Australian private sector credit increased 0.3% MoM in February (exp. 0.4% MoM)
• Major cryptocurrencies are trading higher - Bitcoin gains 0.3%, Ethereum and Dogecoin add 0.6% each and Ripple trades 1.4% higher
• Energy commodities are trading little changed - oil drops around 0.1% while US natural gas prices climb 0.2%
• Precious metals trade mixed - gold and silver drop while platinum gains slightly
• NZD and AUD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and CHF lag the most

AUDJPY is trading higher following better than expected readings of official Chinese PMIs for March. A key near-term resistance to watch can be found in the 90.25 area, where the downward trendline and 50-session moving average (green line) can be found.

EURUSD climbs back above 1.09 mark after French CPI beat

French flash CPI data for March was released today at 7:45 am BST. Report, just like reports from other European countries, was expected to show a significant deceleration in year-over-year reading. However, actual data showed a smaller than expected slowdown, just as it was the case with German data yesterday. French CPI slowed from 6.3 to 5.6% YoY in March, while the market expected a slowdown to 5.5% YoY. On a monthly basis, CPI reached 0.8% MoM, above 0.6% MoM expected by the market but below 1.0% MoM print from January.



Market reaction was small - DE30 ticked lower in a knee-jerk move before recovering losses while EURUSD moved higher and climbed back above 1.09 mark.

US100

It seems that we may be ending the downward phase on Wall Street, given the more than 20% rebound from the bottom. The US100 is having its best quarter since Q2 2020! In fact, if it weren't for the high inflation problem in February and then the banking crisis in March, then the US100 could even be above 14,000 points. Currently, the goal of investors will be to break through the area of 13450 points, where the range of the previous similar correction is located, and 13700 points, which are the peaks of the previous correction as well.

EURUSD

Today we are going to analyze the EURUSD for a longer period of time, in order to get a broader view of the major currency pair. Over the last few months the euro has been recovering against the US dollar, but recently the bullish momentum has slowed down. But could the current rally be compromised?

On the weekly chart, we can see that the price continues to be supported relatively well by the 50-period EMA, although it continues to struggle to break above the recent highs reached this year.




Dollar Index - Weekly Time Frame

On the other hand, when we look at the dollar index chart, we can see that there is room for further declines in the USD. Above all, when we identify the chart pattern - head and shoulders which could support further declines if the price breaks below the neckline of the pattern. Furthermore, the improvement in market sentiment also supports this bearish  USD scenario.




AUD leads the gains this morning.