2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.



Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair continues to fluctuate within sideways and tight track since yesterday, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum to approach the oversold areas, waiting to motive the price to resume the bullish trend that its next targets located at 1.2260 followed by 1.2440.



The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2070 and holding below it.

EURUSD

A relief on the markets triggered by actions of US authorities over the weekend, aimed at containing risk from SVB collapse, turned out to be short-lived. US and European stock markets rallied yesterday but those moves are being reversed today. German DAX futures (DE30) are trading over 1% lower at press time while S&P 500 futures (US500) drop 0.6%. DE30 bears attempt to break below 15,000 pts mark at press time. A move lower on equity markets is accompanied by strengthening of USD which pressures EURUSD and GOLD.

While there is no clear reason behind the drop, it looks like markets remain nervous due to the situation in the banking sector. However, attention may be turning to the European banking sector. Shares of Credit Suisse are trading 10% lower today and hit a fresh record low. Credit Suisse top shareholder ruled out any further financial assistance to the European bank, which has been plagued by issues over recent years.



EURUSD plunged and tested a key near-term support zone in the 1.0675 area, marked with previous local low, 100-period moving average (H1 interval) as well as the lower limit of market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint a bearish trend reversal.



DE30 has once again failed to break above the 15,244-15,285 pts resistance zone and launched a pull back. The index is attempting to make a break below psychological 15,000 pts at press time.

EURUSD

EURUSD pair?s strong decline stopped at 1.0515 yesterday, which formed solid support against the price, to rebound bullishly and start building bullish wave on the intraday basis, motivated by stochastic positivity.



Therefore, we expect to witness more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 1.0640 and extend to 1.0745 after surpassing the previous level. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0515 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer additional losses that reach 1.0440.

USDJPY

The USDJPY pair faced clear negative pressure to break 133.30 and settles below it by today?s open, to head towards expected turn to decline, on its way to achieve negative targets that start at 131.60 and extend to 130.50.



The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, while stochastic positivity might cause some sideways fluctuation before resuming the decline. Note that breaching 133.30 and holding above it will reactivate the positive scenario and push the price towards 135.40 initially.

USDJPY

• US indices finished yesterday's session higher  as a rescue package for First Republic Bank eased market concerns about another bank failure in the US. S&P 500 rose 1.76%, Dow Jones added 1.17% and Russell 2000 jumped 1.38%. Nasdaq outperformed and managed to finish 2.48% higher
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher today - Nikkei rose 1.10%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.48% higher while Kospi and Nifty 50 gained 0.60% and 0.25% respectively. Indices from China traded higher as well
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of today's European cash session
• First Republic Bank reportedly exploring potential sale, according to Fox Business
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen told senators that government refunds of uninsured deposits will not be extended to every bank that fails, only those that pose systemic risk to the financial system
• Fitch believes that recent developments in US will not cause major shifts in US monetary policy
• S&P affirms US at AA+; with Outlook Stable pointing to continued economic resilience
• MUFG analysts said US inflation data remained elevated enough to justify FED 25bp rate hike next week
• Goldman Sachs expects ECB to hike rates by 25 bps in May
• Japan Economy Minister Goto doesn't expect a big impact on Japan's economy from US banking sector issues
• Cryptocurrencies are trading higher today - Bitcoin jumped over 4.0% and is testing 26,000 mark, while Ethereum advances more than 2.0%
• Energy commodities are trading mixed - oil rose 0.3% while US natural gas prices fell 0.8
• Precious metals trade higher today - silver jumped 1.4%, gold adds 0.7%
• AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and CAD lag the most

USDJPY pair pulled back to major support at 133.00, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in January 2021.

Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are enjoying another day of strong gains with BITCOIN rallying over-7% and looking towards the $27,000 mark. The most popular coin took out a local high from Tuesday today and reached a fresh 9-month high. While cryptocurrencies performed poorly between mid-February and early-March, the digital asset market took a U-turn this week. Actions of US authorities aimed at stemming contagion risk from collapse of tech- and crypto-related banks, triggered a rally on cryptocurrencies market. Bitcoin is currently trading over 35% above a local low reached as recently as a week ago on March 10, 2023. Solid gains have been all across the cryptocurrency market this week.



A number of cryptocurrencies rallied over-20% over the past week! Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the coin has not only fully recovered from the February 21 - March 10 sell-off but has even jumped noticeably above mid-Friday's peak in the $25,000 area. Coin is closing in on a $27,000 mark. Near-term potential resistance levels to watch are marked with lower and upper limits of a short-term trading range from May and June 2022 at $29,000 and $31,500, respectively.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair shows calm positive trades to gradually towards our waited target at 1.0745, getting good support by the EMA50, to keep the bullish trend suggested for the upcoming period.



It is important to monitor the price when reaching the targeted level, as breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.0920 areas as a next main station, while consolidating against the bullish wave will press on the price to rebound bearishly to test the minor support areas around 1.0635 initially. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0635 will stop the expected rise for today and push the price to turn to decline to visit 1.0515 level as a first station.