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2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_6825f0acc9f09

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1400 ? 1.1155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2437.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_gbpusd
#166 - February 28, 2023, 08:37:39 AM

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EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0325 ? 1.0163. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0809.


2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eurusd
#167 - February 28, 2023, 09:56:06 AM

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ETHUSD

It is the key ?bullish? level, tested many times over the past five weeks, and consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to 1812.50 (Murrey level [+1/8]), 1875.00 (Murrey level [+2/8]) and 2000.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key ?bearish? level is 1500.00 (Murrey's level [4/8]) at the lower border of the formed side range, the breakdown of which will allow the asset to fall to 1375.00 (Murrey's level [2/8]), 1250.00 (Murrey's level [0/8]).

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eth

Resistance levels: 1700, 1812.5, 1875, 2000 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250
#168 - February 28, 2023, 12:43:46 PM

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2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_6803a6c52eb12
#169 - Today at 02:12:30 PM

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Gold

During today's session gold price bounced off recent lows above the $1,800 an ounce mark, a level not seen since December 2022. Upward move gained steam after publication of latest Conference Board consumer confidence figures.  Price is currently approaching crucial support at $1830, which is marked with previous price reactions, upper limit of local 1:1 structure and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020.  Should break lower occur, upward move may accelerate towards the key resistance zone between $1868 - 1875 an ounce. On the  other hand, if sellers manage to halt declines around $1830 level, another downward impulse may be launched towards psychological support at $1800.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_gold_12
#169 - March 01, 2023, 06:39:20 AM

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AUDCAD

The AUDCAD pair ended the correctional bearish rebound by testing the key support 0.9105, to form solid obstacle against the negative trades, noticing the activation of the bullish track by reaching 0.9200.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_audcad_1

Note that the frequent consolidation above the EMA50 and stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allow us to keep the bullish overview, to expect targeting 0.9240 followed by attempting to press on the initial barrier at 0.9310 in order to find a way to resume the bullish trades.
#170 - March 01, 2023, 07:59:13 AM

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USDCAD - Growth is possible

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3850 ? 1.3977. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3440.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_usdcad_6
#171 - March 01, 2023, 09:22:48 AM

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600 ? 0.9819. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9332.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_usdchf_9
#172 - March 01, 2023, 10:30:20 AM

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2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_728x90

CHN Comp

  • US indices finished the final trading session of February lower. S&P 500 dropped 0.30%, Dow Jones moved 0.71% and Nasdaq moved 0.10% lower. Small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend and finished 0.04% higher
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today. Nikkei added 0.3%, Nifty 50 gained 0.6%, S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.1%
  • Indices from China traded higher on the back of strong PMIs with Hang Seng trading 4% higher on the day
  • DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today
  • Bloomberg reports that amount of Russian diesel-type fuel stored in floating storage reached 1.9 million barrels and is the highest since October 2022 as the country struggles to find buyers for its oil derivative products after Western sanctions
  • Official Chinese manufacturing PMI jumped from 50.1 to 52.6 in February (exp. 50.5) and reached the highest level since April 2012. Services gauge moved from 54.4 to 56.3 (exp. 55.0)
  • Australian GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2022 (exp. 0.7% QoQ)
  • Australian CPI inflation dropped from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY in January (exp. 8.1% YoY)
  • Australian final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 50.5 and was revised higher from 50.1 signaled in flash reading
  • Japanese final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 47.7 and was revised slightly higher from 47.4 in flash reading
  • API report pointed to a 6.2 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. +0.8 mb)
  • Cryptocurrencies trade higher amid overall improvement in risk moods. Bitcoin gains 2.5%, Ethereum jumps 2.6% and Dogecoin trades 1.7% higher
  • Oil is trading 1% higher while US natural gas prices pull back 1%
  • Precious metals trade higher as USD underperforms - gold adds 0.5% while silver and platinum trade 1.3% higher
  • AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_chn

Chinese CHNComp is rallying today following the release of strong official PMIs for February. Index bounced off the support zone ranging between 6,600 pts and 200-session moving average is now trading over 4% higher on the day.
#173 - March 01, 2023, 12:02:57 PM

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AUDJPY

AUDJPY has been trading sideways in recent days but the pair may be heading for a breakout  from this short-term lull today. Release of much better than expected official PMIs from China supported market sentiment during the Asian trading session and is also providing support for indices from the Old Continent at the beginning of the European cash session today. However, AUDJPY has already given back some gains following the initial rally as investors are having second thoughts.

There are 2 factors at play for AUDJPY today. The first one is the aforementioned release of official Chinese PMIs. The second one, is a release of not so encouraging data from the Australian economy. The Australian GDP report for Q4 2022 showed growth of 0.5% QoQ, which was weaker than the 0.7% QoQ median estimate from economists. Moreover, Australian CPI data for January showed a quite significant slowdown from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY while markets expected a deceleration to 8.1% YoY. Weaker than expected GDP growth and bigger than expected slowdown in CPI inflation gives Reserve Bank of Australia some room to justify slowing or pausing the rate hike cycle.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_audjpy

Taking a look at AUDJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in a short-term upward channel since mid-December 2022. The pair made two attempts at breaking above the 93.00 resistance zone recently but have later pulled back following a failure. After around a week of trading sideways in the 91.70 area, we are seeing some action from AUDJPY bulls today. However, it should be noted that both - upper and lower - wicks of recent daily candlesticks have been quite large. This means that it cannot be ruled out that we will see reversal of today's gains later into the day and painting of another doji-like candlestick, signaling persisting indecisiveness.
#174 - March 01, 2023, 03:02:19 PM

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XRPUSD - Pending decision on SEC lawsuit

This week, the XRPUSD pair resumed growth after the negative dynamics last Friday, which developed against the backdrop of the release of January data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States: the figure rose from 5.3% to 5.4% YoY. The increase in value reinforced the fears of experts in the continuation of the tightening cycle of the regulator's monetary policy, which supported the dollar and put pressure on alternative assets. On the background of these data, the price dropped to the area of 0.3655 but now it has returned to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 0.3800.

The situation on the market remains uncertain as investors await the final decision on the suit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple, which should follow soon. The agency insists that the XRP coin, like other cryptocurrencies, except for BTC, is an unregistered security. Corporation lawyers reject the accusations, stating the imperfection of the current definition of the concept of "security" and referring to the statements of the former head of the SEC, William Hinman, who claimed that the ETH token, similar to XRP, is not one. Experts believe that Ripple has a high chance of winning the process. They note that the SEC had previously initiated a similar lawsuit against blockchain platform LBRY, accusing it offering its own LBC tokens but the court ruled that LBC could only be considered a security if there was an initial coin offering (ICO). If Ripple convinces the court that there was no official initial offering, the decision could be favorable for the company, and then leading exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance will re-list XRP, and its price will rise, leveling the negative effect of American monetary policy.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_xrp_1

Now, the trading instrument is close to the middle line of Bollinger bands 0.3800, consolidation above which will give the prospect of resuming growth to 0.4150 (Murrey level [+1/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The key ?bearish? level is 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]), a breakdown of which will provide a decline to 0.3418, 0.3662 (Murrey level [6/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.38, 0.415, 0.433 | Support levels: 0.3662, 0.3418
#175 - March 01, 2023, 04:03:52 PM

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#176 - Today at 02:12:30 PM

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NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair rallied upwards to breach the bearish channel?s resistance and head towards testing the most important resistance at 0.6290, and we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to this level, as continuing the rise and breaching it will push the price to achieve additional gains that start by visiting 0.6385 areas, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the correctional bearish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6140.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_nzdusd_6

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6180 support and 0.6280 resistance.
#176 - March 02, 2023, 06:19:37 AM

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EURGBP

Euro kicked off March on a strong note as fresh preliminary inflation data from France and Spain showed price pressures accelerated last month. Also inflation in North-Rhine Westphalia, the most densely populated part of Germany, also increased. Markets price in ECB to lift rates by another 50bps in March, while the peak rate for the deposit facility is projected to reach 4% in February of 2024, above the 3.9% seen in late February.

On the other hand, the British pound is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today as fresh comments from BoE Governor Bailey overshadowed optimism over Britain's agreement with the EU on post-Brexit trade regarding Northern Ireland. Bailey said further rate hikes may be appropriate but nothing is decided as inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger. It seems that his indecisiveness was perceived well by the markets.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eurgbp-1

EUR and NZD are the best performing major currencies while GBP and USD lag the most.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eurgbp-2

EURGBP rose sharply at the beginning of today's session, however buyers struggle to reach major resistance at 0.8875, which is marked with previous price reactions and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in December 2022. As long as price sits below, pullback towards  local support at 0.8815. cannot be ruled out.
#177 - March 02, 2023, 07:50:36 AM

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EURCHF

The EURCHF pair took advantage of the stability of the additional support at 0.9860 to push it above the EMA50, achieving clear gains by reaching 1.0032, these factors confirm surrendering to the domination of the bullish bias, noting that stochastic positive momentum signals will assist to resume the bullish rally, to expect targeting 1.0080 followed by pressing on the additional barrier at 1.0145 as a next target for the bullish bias.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eurchf_1

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9975 and 1.0080.
#178 - March 02, 2023, 08:24:53 AM

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EURGBP

EUR could be on the move later today when the CPI report for February from the euro area and ECB minutes are released at 10:00 am GMT and 12:30 pm GMT, respectively. CPI reading may draw more attention as it will be more timely - keep in mind that ECB minutes will be a recap of discussions from around 3 weeks ago and therefore views included may be outdated. In fact, many ECB members have struck a hawkish tone since the latest meeting with ECB President Lagarde saying this morning that a 50 bp rate hike at the March meeting is still on the table. This has provided some support for EUR this morning and put some pressure on European equities. Lagarde also said that she does not expect recession in the euro area and that inflation should start to slow from march due to base effects.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_eurgbp_3

Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has climbed to the 0.8900 resistance zone yesterday. An attempt to break above was made today on the back of Lagarde's comments but those gains were already erased. Nevertheless, another attempt cannot be ruled out given two potential EUR-volatility events later in the day (CPI and ECB minutes). Also the pair may see some action during speeches from ECB Schnabel (12:30 pm GMT), BoE Tenreyro (1:00 pm GMT) and BoE Pill (3:00 pm GMT).
#179 - March 02, 2023, 09:30:56 AM

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AUDUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6645 ? 0.6524. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN in Technical_audusd_4
#180 - March 02, 2023, 11:08:54 AM

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