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MEX INTEREST RATE

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JamesThatcher

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Country of release - Mexico


What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on MXN Pairs and vice versa.


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

Nov 2020, Saw an 18 basis point (bps) hike from the average forecast, which created 546 pips in 1 min, which meant 30 pips per 1Bps!
+0.25 bps above the rounded forecast,
See charts→
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=24308;t=2020-11-12;r=M1

Aug 2019, Saw a +25 bps hike from the average forecast, which was a lovely move!
See charts→
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/link?id=9510&params=aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1O3I9TTE.

Today?s Forecast
The forecast is 4%
Hi = 4.0
Low = 3.75
Avg = 3.93
Median = 4
16 out of 23 economists say there is no chance of a cut to the rate today. That's a 70% chance of no change.

Today?s Trade Plan

Hopefully, today if we see: -
-0.25 cut today would be 18 bps, so maybe expect 18x30=540 pips
+0.25 hike would be 32bps, so maybe expect 32x30= 960 pips

These are just estimates, though!

Tradable Pairs
USDMXN or EURMXN





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#1 - March 25, 2021, 06:40:10 PM
« Last Edit: March 25, 2021, 06:54:32 PM by Admin »
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