EUR/USD

EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Reversal, Price Pattern Point to Selling

EURUSD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:
Euro daily key-reversal, 4-hr pattern counsel complaint
Expectations remain low for price interest, but that will fine-space


EURO DAILY KEY-REVERSAL, 4-HR PATTERN SUGGEST WEAKNESS

On Thursday, EURUSD abruptly reversed, creating a key-reversal very approximately the subject of the daily chart very close trend-descent resistance. Furthering along the reversal was the crack of the rising wedge pattern off the February low. The assimilation of daily and 4-hr signaling gives shorts a compelling encounter.

Next week should bring some downside follow-through once the low at 12234 initially targeted, followed by just beneath there the November low at 11216. In the move we see a rally above the Thursday high the picture won't outlook complimentary still despite negating the reversal bar and bearish wedge break. Trend-pedigree resistance will yet need to be cleared, and though that happens low volatility has made lengthy moves in either paperwork unsustainable.

EXPECTATIONS REMAIN LOW FOR PRICE MOVEMENT, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE

Volatility continues to be low and expectations for out-sized moves in the near-term remains tempered. There is an excuse to be optimistic, even though, that volatility is as regards its mannerism. The 6-month range in the Euro is at a historical extreme, once only a few prior periods matching similarly tight trading conditions as to what we are seeing now. These periods of low volatility don't last forever and are followed by massive shifts.

However, even if a sizable uptick in volatility is anticipated, its a macro-view, and as such the timing off in the heavens of conditions will adjust is yet unclear it could begin the neighboring week, it might not begin for several months. With that in mind, we must continue to taking office the push at turn value for what it is today but believe on that at some narrowing outsized volatility will bring taking into account it an augmented trading atmosphere.

The dovish ECB will still overshadow the movement of the Euro against the Dollar. The short term outlook remains negative as long as the EUR / USD moves below the 1.1289 / 1.1315 area, but also should be aware of the extreme oversold conditions of the RSI indicator.

EURUSD DOWN TO 1.1301 AFTER NATURAL GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI CONTRACTING THERE


The EURUSD currency pair fell sharply after the German flash manufacturing PMI data in March which was far below estimates while marking a three-month consecutive contraction.

Data recently released showed the March German flash manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7, while predictions said at 48 and data in the previous month were 47.6. The contraction in the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone's largest economy has started since January, when it was at 49.9. In December last year German manufacturing was still experiencing expansion, precisely at number 51.5. Number 50 is a limit to determine whether manufacturing activity experiences expansion or contraction.

This data confirms that the slowdown in the Eurozone is increasingly becoming and as a result of the US-China trade war. This economic slowdown was feared by the European Central Bank (ECB) so that the ECB issued a soft loan policy to banks to be channeled to the public.

EURUSD dropped sharply from 1.1386 to 1.1295 in the last hour before then turning to 1.1301, or down 0.61 percent, equivalent to 70 pips from the close of the New York session last night.

EURUSD is still under pressure at the end of the first quarter or the end of March this year. This weakness is expected to last until the second quarter later. In the view of analysts in the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) banking group, the Euro risked further falls in the second quarter of 2019.

"The risk is leaning to the lower side of the EUR in the coming months," said ANZ research. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) moderated forward interest rate guidance last month, removing hopes that interest rates will rise this year. That has contributed to a decrease in volatility, but we are not sure this can last longer.

Euro area growth sluggish. The main indicators indicate weak activity towards the second quarter. Credit growth also loses momentum.

At writing, EURUSD 1.1241, fell 1 pip from yesterday's close

LEVEL OF EURO ZONE INFLATION SLOW IN MARCH

The inflation rate in the Eurozone fell slightly in March, still below the European Central Bank's mid-term target, according to the preliminary reading for data released Monday.

The consumer price index showed the annual inflation rate fell to 1.4% from 1.5% in February, said Eurostat, the European bloc statistics bureau.

For the core inflation rate, which excludes prices for food, alcohol and cigarettes, slows to an annual rate of 0.8% from February which was revised to 1%. That is below the level targeted by the European Central Bank, which targets the inflation rate to be just below the level of 2% in the medium term.

Meanwhile in a separate report, the unemployment rate in the European bloc for the February period was stable at 7.8%, which was consistent with the consensus.

Last month, the ECB pushed back a tentative time for the first interest rate increase in 10 years and re-launched a new round of cheap funding for banks, fearing slowing growth in the European bloc.

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest decision did not change at the press conference of the FOMC meeting later tonight to meet data from the eurozone economy that is currently strong, indicated by a preliminary GDP that beat estimates.

This currency pair even reached a new weekly peak reached at 1.1238 a few minutes ago.

Currency markets in the major eurozone countries are on holiday due to Labor Day, except the United Kingdom. The depleted market conditions due to holidays and the lack of new fundamental drivers, made the players look at the factors around the US dollar.

The market expects the US central bank to maintain the Fed Fund rates unchanged at 2.25% -2.5% while anticipating a slightly hawkish tone, given the recent improvements in US fundamentals.

While the euro was strong after the preliminary data on the first quarter of the euro zone released yesterday showed there was a 0.4 percent increase compared to the final quarter of 2018, higher than the estimate of 0.3 percent and the fourth quarter increase compared to the third quarter 2018 by 0.2 percent.

for today there is an interest rate announcement by the ECB minutes. so be careful to trade in eurusd pair today