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Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

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Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_xx
September Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders Profit Neared 550,000 USD

Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_Gwi3TfF

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from India, account No.1584XXX, earning almost USD 300,000, or USD 291,944 to be exact. As the analysis shows, the main trading instruments of the leaders are still the pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD). The winner of the September rating used a number of other pairs as well, such as EUR/NZD, for example.

The second place on the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No. 1397XXX. Their result was almost half that of the leader, but still amounted to an impressive USD 159,241, and was obtained for the same volatile pairs including the British currency: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

A trader from Vietnam, account No.1499XXX, who ranked third, used the GBP/JPY pair heavily as well. Their profit at the end of the month amounted to USD 93.610.

The passive investment services:
- CopyTrading has changed its leader. It is the aggressive SHASK VN signal broadcast from Vietnam now. It showed a yield of 435%  on deals with oil (72% of the total) and with gold (21%), in the last three days of September alone. At the same time, the maximum drawdown during the lifetime of the signal was close to 63% of the deposit, making subscribing to it a high-risk event.

As for the leader of July-August, BangBigBosStop1, the first autumn month was not very successful for it. It suffered a loss of 6% in September. There is nothing critical about it, though, as the total profit for the five months is 668%. However, despite the advantages of this signal, the maximum drawdown of 58% also makes it a high-risk group.
As for less risky but also less profitable signals, one might look at KennyFXpro-The Compass, for example. This signal has shown a gain of 135% with a drawdown of around 29% since last November.

- Judging by the title, the same author acts as a manager for NordFX PAMM service as well. Using the nickname KennyFXpro-The Multi 3000 EA, they have increased their capital there by 42% with a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other, even less risky offers in the PAMM service. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 exceeded 26% over six months with a maximum drawdown of about 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 8,710, was credited in September to a partner from India, account No.1258ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received USD 6,384;
- and, finally, their colleague from China (account No.1336XXX) closes the top three, earning USD 5,992 in commission.
#76 - October 03, 2021, 01:43:43 PM

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Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_xx
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 2022

EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up

Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_pAT2f5o

The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new ?surprises?) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.

You can see quite different vector behavior of the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the pandemic. Having started at 1.0635 in March 2020, the pair was already at 1.2350 in early January 2021. The weakening of the dollar has been affected by the intense pumping of the US economy with a huge dollar mass as part of the monetary stimulus (QE) policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve.

With the start of a new 2021 and the arrival of the administration of a new President Joe Biden in the White House, the market has a feeling of greater stability and the imminent winding down of QE. All the more so because macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and the labor market recovery, were encouraging. The dollar gained muscle and the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1700 by the end of March.

But dovish sentiment prevailed among the Fed's leadership, the pumping of the economy with money continued, the beginning of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program was postponed indefinitely, and one could not even think about raising the base interest rate. And the pair rose above the important psychological level 1.2000 again, reaching the height of 1.2265.

The competition between the central banks of Europe and the United States certainly did not end there. But while the ECB's rhetoric continued to be dovish, the statements of some Fed leaders already sounded a harsh hawkish note. Investors started to expect that the Fed would begin to roll back QE at the end of this year and will complete it in 2022, in order to start raising the discount rate in early 2023. And the dollar gained ground again, dropping the pair back into the 1.1700 zone. 

At its September meeting, the American regulator did not announce any specific plans regarding the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program. But, if decision-making dynamics remain the same, the Fed will be ahead of the ECB by about six months.

On this basis, many experts predict the dollar will continue to strengthen in late 2021 and in the first half of 2022. In this case, the pair will continue to move south, first to support 1.1500 and then to 1.1200. Some particularly zeal bears predict the pair will even drop to the lows of March 2020.

As for the second half of 2022, according to a number of forecasts, the US economic situation will stabilize, while the ?slow? Eurozone, on the contrary, will begin to gain momentum. A reduction in the European QE program and a rise in the euro interest rate could reverse the trend and return the pair to the 1.1700-1.2000 zone. 

It is clear that the dynamics of the pair depends on many factors on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: political, economic, and in recent years, epidemiological. One other major player is China, which also has a strong influence on the economies of both the Old World and the New World. Therefore, it should be understood that everything said is based on a vision of the situation at the moment, and can be (and should be) subject to adjustment many times over the coming months.

Cryptocurrencies: Virtual and Real Gold

While there is a rough understanding and political and economic justification of forecasts with the major currency pair EUR/USD, things look much more complicated as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Despite the assurances of influencers, this market looks more like the epicenter of mass speculation over the past 1-1.5 years, rather than a reliable investment platform. The year is not over yet, but bitcoin has already managed to soar from $28,550 in January to $64,800 in April, then collapsed to $29,300 in July, and then repeat this rally, only on a slightly smaller scale.

The rate of the BTC/USD pair can be influenced not only by the decisions of US regulators and the Chinese government, but even the mood Elon Musk has woken up in. One of his tweets can make you a millionaire or rip you to the bone. That's why NordFX brokerage gives its clients the opportunity to make money not only on the growth, but also on the fall of cryptocurrency rates, even without having a single token in stock. Why take the risk and buy bitcoin and then sell it? After all, you can just open a sell trade right away.

Nobody knows exactly how much the reference cryptocurrency will cost. Expert opinions vary widely. Some, like Standart Chartered, see $100,000 by the end of this year, and some predict a rise to the same $100,000, but only by the end of 2022. And some, like the Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, are sure that this bubble will burst soon, burying the two trillion USD plus that the investors have invested in this market.

Much will depend on the recovery of the US economy, the pace of the winding down the monetary stimulus (QE) programme, the prospects for the Fed raising interest rates and the dynamics of treasury yields. These are factors that can severely reduce the risk appetite of institutional investors and return them to more familiar financial instruments.

For ethereum, the forecast of Standard Chartered experts is as favorable as for bitcoin and looks very optimistic. A range of $26,000-35,000 per coin was announced in an interview for Reuters. But that's not the limit either, especially if the bitcoin rate approaches $175,000 by the end of 2022.

According to a report by the major investment bank Goldman Sachs published in Forbes, the base cryptocurrency has the chance to lose its leading position, giving way to ethereum. Goldman Sachs believes that the main reason for the popularity of the main altcoin is the ability to create new applications. And also the fact that many financial instruments can be replaced on the basis of its platform. This includes, among other things, loans and other banking operations.

As for real, not digital, gold, a number of experts believe that this precious metal has yet to run out of growth potential in 2022. They do not rule out that the XAU/USD pair could break the August 2020 record and rise to $2,200-2,300 per ounce. However, the price performance of this reserve asset will also depend on investors' willingness or reluctance to take risks, as mentioned above.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
#77 - October 10, 2021, 12:38:11 PM

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Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_xx
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 18 - 22, 2021

EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?

The situation is actually ambiguous. Some experts expected a much more powerful correction further north. But it didn't happen: the pair managed to rise only to 1.1624 and ended the five-day run at 1.1600.

The week's data show that the US economy continues to recover fairly quickly, increasing to almost 100% the chance that the Fed will start tapering monetary stimulus (QE) program next month.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 293,000 for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (down 36K against 14,000 forecast). And the number of those already receiving benefits, with the forecast of 78 thousand, decreased by 134 thousand: from 2.72 to 2.59 million. Producer prices also showed an increase, from 8.3% to 8.6% (with a forecast of 8.5%). Year-on-year, therefore, inflation of these prices showed the most powerful uptick in history.

It should be noted that the Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator for consumer prices. And consequently, inflation can be expected to continue rising, bringing the beginning of the end of QE closer. Especially as retail sales released on Friday 15th October were also in the green zone: ?plus 0.7% versus the forecast minus 0.2%.

And here the question arises: if everything is so good in the US economy, why hasn't the pair continued its precipitous decline? Grasping at straws, euro-bulls are likely still hoping that the winding down of the fiscal stimulus program will be delayed at least until December. This is supported by the jump in stock indices: the S&P500 rose 3 per cent in the second half of the week (its highest gain in seven months) and the Dow Jones rose 3.4 per cent. This index has not seen such a big break in almost three months.

So what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Continuation of the downtrend after the correction? A stronger euro and an upward trend reversal? Or respite in the side channel?

The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among oscillators, 55% are red, 15% green, and the remaining 30% are neutral grey. There is a lack of unity among trend indicators as well: 65% of them point south and 35% are looking north. The graphical analysis draws the pair's rise to 1.1725, then a fall back and move in the range of 1.1585-1.1725.

As for analysts, 20% favour further decline of the pair, 50% are for its growth, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Support levels are 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1625, 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

For next week's events, the European Council meeting on Thursday October 21 and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole on October 22 can be noted. The decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday, October 20, may also rock the pair.

GBP/USD: The Victory Is with the Pound So Far

Unlike its European neighbour, the British pound continues to strengthen actively against the dollar: the GBP/USD pair showed a 360-point gain (from 1.3412 to 1.3772) since September 29 and finished at 1.3744. The reason for this dynamic is understandable and lies in the Bank of England's intention to start tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates considerably in the foreseeable future.

As we have already written, according to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First is the UK's success in the fight against COVID-19. Secondly, the reduction of political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on the independence of Scotland. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to Citibank analysts, are ?well placed to confront Fed policy?, which is what we have seen during October.

However, once the Fed moves to wind down its QE programme, things could change dramatically in favour of the dollar. 60% of experts predict at the moment that the pair will head south again to test the supports at 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. 20% of analysts vote for the continuation of the upward trend (resistance levels and targets of bulls 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000). And 20% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, predict a sideways trend.

Among the indicators, a significant advantage is still on the side of the green. 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators indicate the continuation of the uptrend on the daily timeframe. 25% of oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, and 15% are in a neutral position.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, attention should be paid to such an important measure of inflation as the UK CPI (due on Wednesday October 20), as well as Markit's UK services PMI to be released on Friday October 22.

USD/JPY: Per Aspera Ad Astra

Daily Market Analysis from NordFX in Fundamental_LdhKvlo

There is such an expression in Latin, Per aspera ad astra, the authorship is attributed to the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Anna Seneca. It literally translates as "Through hardships to the stars? and means "Through difficulties to victory." This is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls won.

Most experts expected that they would not calm down until they took the 112.00 height by storm. And now, finally, their months-long efforts have succeeded. And in a great way. After jumping 222 points over the week, the pair reached a height of 114.45 on Friday October 15, and the last chord was slightly lower at 114.21, near the upper limit of the trade range since the beginning of 2017.

Such a fiasco of the Japanese currency is fully consistent with its role as a haven currency and reflects a stable inverse relationship between its rate and the demand for risks. The growing interest of investors in the American and Japanese stock markets (the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 grew in parallel with the S&P 500) dealt a strong blow to the yen. A pullback in energy prices, which the country mostly imports, supported the market's appetite for Japanese stocks as well.

According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the weak yen supports exporters, but inflates import costs for a number of companies and consumers. At the same time, he said that the stability in the Forex market is important for the government, and it closely monitors the impact of exchange rates on the Japanese economy. But the minister refused to comment directly on the current situation.

However, the yen's fall in two weeks of October looks too fast against the background of the dynamics of the last five months. And this could be the reason for a strong correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. So 70% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the 111.00-112.00 zone within the next three to five weeks. However, the bulls will have the advantage in the short term. According to 55% of experts, the continued interest of investors in the stock market could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.

At the time of writing this review, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 indicate further growth in the pair. 25% of oscillators signal that it is overbought and a possible correction. The resistance levels are 114.55 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.80, 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC's New Target Is $68,000

China-related news almost reversed the bitcoin trend south again on Wednesday, October 13. Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has announced, following other exchanges, that it will stop serving Chinese clients and remove the yuan from the list of supported currencies as of December 31.

Prior to Beijing's repressions, residents of this country formed one of the major parts of the crypto community, with the country leading bitcoin mining. Back in 2020, its share was 50-60% of the global hash rate. The situation has changed dramatically since then and, according to Cambridge University, the top three in crypto mining are now the United States (35.4%), Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11.2%).

If you look at the map, you can see that the last two of these countries have a land border with China, which made it possible to move numerous mining equipment there. As a result, illegal miners in some Russian border regions have increased annual electricity consumption by 160%.

Time will tell whether China will win or lose from the imposed bans. This applies to other countries as well, some of which seek to tighten legislation in this area as much as possible, while others are very loyal to digital assets. For example, Director of US National Intelligence John Ratcliffe sent a letter to the SEC chairman last year asking him not to restrict the activities of US miners. There is no need to talk about El Salvador, which recognized bitcoin as the official currency.

Interestingly, this decision was heavily criticized by ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. ?Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [El Salvador President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,? Buterin wrote on Reddit. And he stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system ?runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked."

The Capgemini Research Institute is also concerned with the question of how widely cryptocurrencies have entered the life of ordinary people. In addition to surveys conducted in many countries, it examined statistics from the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks.

Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees.

If the world's leading powers don't start chasing bitcoin after China, the flagship cryptocurrency has a lot of chances to to bypass leading corporations and even entire sectors of the world economy in terms of capitalization.

According to Coinmarketcap, the largest capitalization currently belongs to Apple ($ 2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and BTC is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the time of writing the review is $2.42 trillion, and the capitalization of BTChas already reached $1.12 trillion (dominance index 46.24%).

Bitcoin continued to delight investors over the past week. Over the seven days, the BTC/USD pair rose 16% to reach a local high of $62,880. Projections supported by many experts suggest that it will soon test the historic high of $64,810 on April 14. If successful, taking into account the statistical volatility, the pair will reach the $68,000, followed by a serious correction associated with massive profit taking.

However, despite a possible pullback, the mid-term outlook for this pair remains positive. The next major resistance level is located in the $80,000-81,000 area. American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, Kraken experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from the Fear Zone to the Greed Zone in the two weeks of October to reach 71 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
#78 - October 17, 2021, 03:25:53 PM


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