Really nice to find a place where traders actively discuss Gold trades. I may be wrong but that is a bit unusual, because I find that in most forex forums, traders tend to focus on currencies in the main and this can be frustrating to traders involved with Gold so kudos to the initiative here. My sense is that Gold scares a lot of traders, yet in my 13 years of trading, I have found no instrument better mathematically well behaved than Gold. Given today is a Monday, and in starting off a new week, one way I try to assess the overall direction ahead, is to identify tendency on the weekly chart and interpolate that behaviour to form my expectation for the periods ahead. In the attached chart a) we find the current weeks bar (within the set contained in the ellipse shown and pointed to by the arrow) struggling to rise above the white dotted .5 Standard Deviation line of the Better Bollinger Band tool. b) this is key because we see that the market is reactive from the mid line of this configuration after entering the middle volatility envelope from the top band c) the broken horizontal line is of course the monthly pivot or average price line for the current period. d) Clearly, the overall picture is one of a turn (or reversal) in progress from the red marker dot seen top leftish of the setup of volatility envelopes. e) it is simple therefore to reason that a close above the .5 SD Better Bollinger Band line this week would stall the said move, but what I imagine more likely (given tendency) is that the current bar will end up being contained within the transition (or second) envelope; promoting continuation per the original move. f) continuation of course implies in sequence 1248.23 as a first target and ultimately circa 1223.95 e) this leads to the expectation that intra-day, we can expect Gold to rise strongly initially in the week in order to make a down turn circa 1308/9 (at most) in support of the "evidence" that medium term, Gold is in a sustained fall. Just my 2 cents.
PS: The above is not a prediction just a plausible scenario given the snapshot of the market upon which it is based. In practice one would adjust trading to fit the picture as snapshots change. I am what you might call a long-term type trader as I completely lack the temperament for day trading and have the time (as trading is my full time occupation) to trade fairly long spans of market range. But I would like to join the conversation here every once in a while. Wishing all traders only the best of the market.
