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Crude Oil Inventories

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JamesThatcher

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DOE Crude Forecast is -2426
DOE Gasoline is +1397
API Actual Crude is -5800
API Actual Gasoline is +3900

Will therefor use a forecast of = -4000 for Crude oil
Will therefor use a forecast of = +2500 for Gasoline

Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!!

Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
See charts here.... 
[color=rgba(var(--sk_highlight,18,100,163),1)]https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29263;t=2021-02-17;r=M1 [/color]

Last weeks DOE report didn't trigger for me but was very close!
See charts here....
[color=rgba(var(--sk_highlight,18,100,163),1)]https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1[/color]

Trade plan..
For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500ms

T1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline


Additionally, I can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750On platforms that allow slippage control, I can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.

Thanks James

Linkback: https://www.forex.zone/fundamental/12/crude-oil-inventories/3251/
#1 - February 18, 2021, 01:18:52 PM
« Last Edit: February 24, 2021, 01:00:13 PM by Admin »

JamesThatcher

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DOE Crude Forecast is -5190
DOE Gasoline is -3062
API Actual Crude is 1026
API Actual Gasoline is 0066

Will therefor use a forecast of = -2500 for Crude oil
Will therefor use a forecast of = -1500 for Gasoline

Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!!

Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
See charts here....


Last weeks DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close!

See charts here....


Trade plan..
For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500ms

T1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline

Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750
On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.

Thanks James
#2 - February 24, 2021, 12:57:39 PM

JamesThatcher

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DOE Crude Forecast is -0928
DOE Gasoline is -2300
API Actual Crude is +7400
API Actual Gasoline is  -9900

I'll use a forecast of -/+3000 for Crude oil
Will therefor use a forecast of = -5000 for Gasoline

Remember that Oil is a commodity. More oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!!

Recent History
Check out the move that API private report created last night here!
See charts here.... 
https://kenc4jbhyi.execute-api.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/stage1//link?id=32974&params=aHR0cDovL2NhbGVuZGFyLmdhbGF4eXNvZnR3YXJlaW5jLmNvbS8jL2NhbGVuZGFyO2k9MzI5NzQ7dD0yMDIxLTAzLTAyO3I9TTE.

Last week's DOE report gave us a very small T1... small move!
See charts here...
https://kenc4jbhyi.execute-api.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/stage1//link?id=30131&params=aHR0cDovL2NhbGVuZGFyLmdhbGF4eXNvZnR3YXJlaW5jLmNvbS8jL2NhbGVuZGFyO2k9MzAxMzE7dD0yMDIxLTAyLTI0O3I9TTE.

Trade plan
Trade on US Oil, Crude, WTI
We need both lines of data to arrive within a set time to trade. If it doesn't arrive within those times I won't fire a trade.

For platforms without slippage, I will set the timeout to 100ms
For platforms with slippage, I will set a timeout of 500ms


T1 = 5900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
T2 = 6900 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline
T3 = 8000 dev, with max conflict of 5000 on Gasoline

Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750


#3 - March 03, 2021, 12:12:04 PM
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 12:44:15 PM by Admin »

JamesThatcher

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There are 4 main lines of data: - 


DOE Crude 
DOE Gasoline  
API Actual Crude 
API Actual Gasoline   


Remember that Oil is a commodity. More oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!


Today?s forecasts are as follows : 
DOE Crude  +0816
DOE Gasoline   -3467
API Actual Crude   +12800
API Actual Gasoline   -8500


Therefore I?ll  use the forecast of  


= + 6000 for Crude oil
 = - 6000 for Gasoline


Trade plan
Trade on - US Oil, Crude, WTI
 
Crude and Gasoline Must deviate in the same direction, if Crude deviates by a minimum of 7000, then we can look to enter the market for some easy pips! 
 
We know that the market watches the API oil report for clues as to the possible outcome of The Crude Oil Inventories report today. Yesterday?s API showed another conflict between Gasoline and Crude. Let's hope that's not what happens today, as we don't want to take any trade if there's a conflict.


Recent History...
Check out the move that API private report created last night! See charts here...  
http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com-dev.s3-website.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/#/calendar;i=33696;t=2021-03-09;r=M1
 
We can see last week?s report had a huge deviation but also a huge conflict! The move was BIG but short-lasting, with few opportunities to get in on the trade. That's a dangerous situation, that's best avoided.  See charts here...
http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com-dev.s3-website.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/#/calendar;i=33030;t=2021-03-03;r=M1
 
 
Good luck James. 



#4 - March 10, 2021, 12:42:06 PM

JamesThatcher

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Country of release - USA


What the data means to the market. The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US, this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock which the market looks for as an indicator to today?s report, which can also gauge how it will respond.


Historic Devitations and Their Outcome
Check out the move that API private report created last night! See charts here: -.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=33948;t=2021-03-16;r=M1


We can see last week?s report had a huge deviation of 12000 Barrels but also a huge conflict on Gasoline! I didn?t take this trade due to the conflict which was the right choice,  as you can see the move was poor! 
See Charts here: - http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com-dev.s3-website.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/#/calendar;i=33030;t=2021-03-03;r=M1 


Today?s Forecasts
DOE Crude Forecast = 2964
API Actual Crude = -1000
DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2996
API Actual Gasoline = -0900
 
Therefore I?ll use the forecast of
= 0 for Crude oil
= - 1000 for Gasoline


Today?s Trade Plan
Crude and Gasoline must deviate in the same direction, if Crude deviates by a minimum of 4000, then we can look to enter the market for some easy profit!
We know that the market watches the API oil report for clues as to the possible outcome of The Crude Oil Inventories report today. Yesterday?s API showed another conflict between Gasoline and Crude. Let's hope that's not what happens today, as we don't want to take any trade if there's a conflict.
Tradeable Pairs - US Oil, Crude, WTI
Trade with Slippage Control - Yes  
Trade without Slippage Control - Yes 



#5 - March 17, 2021, 10:15:07 AM

JamesThatcher

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US Crude Oil Inventories March 24 2021
Country of release - USA


What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US. This inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today?s report, which can gauge how it will respond.



Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
Last week
Mildly positive overall from both lines and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!
See charts here -->
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=34164;t=2021-03-17;r=M1
 
Two weeks ago,
Again, a conflicting mess that we wouldn't trade. 
See charts here -->
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=34164;t=2021-03-17;r=M1


Today?s Forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = 0272
2) API Actual Crude = 2900
 
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = 1186
4) API Actual Gasoline = -3700
 
I'll use a forecast of  +1000 for Crude oil
Will, therefore, use a forecast of 0 for Gasoline  
 
Today?s Trade Plan
 
If we get a 4000+- deviation on Crude OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a good move, and hopefully, a trend will begin!
 
 
 
Tradeable Pairs
WTI, OIL, Brent



#6 - March 24, 2021, 02:15:15 PM

JamesThatcher

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United States Crude Oil Inventories March 31 2021


What does the data mean to the market?


The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.


There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic Deviations and Their Outcome


March 24 2021 - Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?



See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34656;t=2021-03-24%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 


March 17 2021 - Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!


See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34164;t=2021-03-17%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 


March 10 2021 - This is an excellent example of why I wouldn't trade when gasoline conflicts with oil.


See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33711;t=2021-03-10%2015:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

My Forecasts For Today


DOE Crude Oil Inventories - 2000.00
DOE Gasoline Inventories - -3000.00




Today's Trade Plan


If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from OIl or Brent.


Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.


1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = +0107


2) API Actual Crude = +3900


3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0730


4) API Actual Gasoline = -6000


Tradeable Pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!


Good luck!


James Thatcher


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#7 - March 31, 2021, 11:46:58 AM
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