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Canadian Employment Change

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JamesThatcher

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Canadian Employment Change in Fundamental_xx
We could grab some pips from this report today, it?s nice to have this rare occurrence where this doesn?t come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. Which usually comes out at the same time. Canadian data is looking hot these days and a deviation from the forecast here could see a change in the prolonged move in all CAD pairs.

There are two main aspects to this report, Employment, and unemployment. Here are the forecasts: -

Employment Change Forecasts
High= 200
Low= -10
Bloomberg Est = 75
Avg = 99
As you can see there is a significant positive bias in the employment change forecasts.
 
Unemployment Forecasts
High= 9.5
Low= 8.6
Bloomberg Est = 9.2
Avg = 9.15 ( downside bias)

Recent History
October we also had the same setup where this report doesn?t come out with NFP  however the forecast range was much wider
See charts here ->
http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com-dev.s3-website.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/#/calendar;i=23196;t=2020-10-09;r=M1

Last month we had NFP, but big devs worked slowly on EURCAD and USDCAD, See S2 charts here...
http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com-dev.s3-website.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/#/calendar;i=28017;t=2021-02-05;r=S2


Trade Plan
We have to look at the 3 main lines.
Employment Change = Shows how many jobs were gained or added in the last month.
Full Time= How many of those jobs were Full time because if they are part-time they have less value to the economy.
Unemployment = More unemployment is bad, and less is good.

If we get a deviation from Employment change of around +75 (This is the key line of data)
Add to that a +20  Full Time
And 0.2+- from Unemployment
Then we should see some great moves.

Good Luck
James Thatcher





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#1 - March 12, 2021, 12:08:23 PM
« Last Edit: March 12, 2021, 01:02:29 PM by Admin »
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