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Analyze the Market with Science and don't predict it ?

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I often meet traders who (feel) have enough experience in forex trading and (feel) can predict the next market price movements. 100% accurate. At least according to him.

Well, indeed if you already have a "trading hour" that has been long enough, say: 20,000 trading hours, there is a tendency that you will really understand the market to the core.

Let me say that such feelings, at least from my experience, often cause havoc. Be careful, don't let you get "god trading syndrome".

OK, I admit that the term just really is my imagination. It even occurred to me when I wrote this article. What I mean by "god trading syndrome" is when a trader feels, even believes, that he will not be able to predict market movements incorrectly. He was sure that he would always be right. He will not admit that he made wrong predictions. He will blame everything as much as he can, except himself.

Actually this is the impact of the traders' high level of confidence. The cool language: overconfident. Confidence must, but overconfidence, man, danger!

In fact, there is nothing - repeat: no - no one out there can predict 100% accurate price movements. There is always time when the market does not move according to your wishes.

But don't get me wrong. This "god trader syndrome" cannot be pinned to people who continuously improve their analytical skills through practice and practice with the aim of increasingly recognizing market behavior. Those are two completely different things.

People who always improve their abilities must always be aware of the important points of analysis, ie analysis can be missed. Thus, increasing the ability to anticipate risk and regulate capital is an important part of the learning and practice process. The goal to be achieved from the process of improving this capability is the ability to accept losses if they occur, admit mistakes, evaluate trading strategies and make improvements that are deemed necessary.

This is completely different from the attitude of the person who has the "god trader syndrome" that I mentioned earlier. The "god of traders" will never do an evaluation because he always thinks, "I'm not wrong!"

How to avoid it?

Instead of predicting the market, let's start learning to determine "bias", which we can interpret as "tendency". Where is the difference?

What I mean by "predicting the market" is when we make predictions whose results are deemed certain to occur. For example, "Sell GBPUSD now, TP at 1.xxxxx." Finish. There is no anticipation if the GBPUSD actually rises. Yes, because the "god of traders" feels that the prediction is not possible.

Meanwhile "bias" is more flexible because it is open to possible changes in market direction.

An example is as you usually get in our daily analysis, where we always include anticipation if the market moves against the bias we see. If we see a bias for GBPUSD today is bearish, for example, we always include an "exit strategy" if in case GBPUSD actually moves up. Thus, traders who use biased-based analysis will always be ready with risk management techniques if the market moves against the analysis made.

Always remember that the market has its own will and we cannot regulate it. We must start learning to open and close transactions based on what we see, not based on what we think will happen. That is what distinguishes analysts from fortune tellers.

So, start analyzing. Stop the habit of "fortune telling".

#1 - February 03, 2019, 07:56:12 PM

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in my opinion to analyze any price movements the way it is can be the same as according to the rule, and also to analyze the movement very well if done with good money management and also the level of risk calculated
#2 - February 05, 2019, 04:06:56 PM

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So, start analyzing. Stop the habit of "fortune telling".
It's so funny from what was told, hahaha

You really are a friend who likes to have imagination, the god of trading whether it is there maybe just a story or a myth ...
#3 - February 05, 2019, 10:20:09 PM
« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 10:45:31 PM by Admin »

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trading by relying on feeling that has not been trained is the same as guessing the pack will be close to gambling.
#4 - May 22, 2019, 07:15:19 PM

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basically the market has certain patterns and often repeats, that's where we can know various patterns, so it's clear that doing technical analysis must use knowledge and knowledge not just like that.
#5 - May 22, 2019, 08:35:12 PM

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I often meet traders who (feel) have enough experience in forex trading and (feel) can predict the next market price movements. 100% accurate. At least according to him.

what I keep in mind is that the market has its own desire to move and no one can know its direction with certainty so as a trader we must be able to read the tendency of price direction that might occur with our analytical abilities.
#6 - May 22, 2019, 09:07:35 PM
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 12:13:33 AM by Mikser »

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The fact is that most traders do analysis with calculations and also expectations because the ability of a retail trader is very limited so the belief will not be able to recover an expectation so still a trader must hang expectations on probability.
#7 - January 28, 2020, 02:49:13 AM

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It is recommended in carrying out trading it must be with knowledge and analysis or calculations based on actual market movements and not originating guesses, that's why trading is often called gambling if it is done without the correct knowledge.
#8 - January 28, 2020, 05:44:20 PM

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We have the skill that we have to use as much as possible in conducting analysis because trading without analysis will be detrimental and cause negative emotions that damage, if we trade based on experience and skill then whatever happens even though it's a margin call we can still receive it well.
#9 - January 29, 2020, 09:35:50 AM

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usually traders are often wrong in interpreting analysis and predictions, if it's just a mention, then it's not a problem, but if it leads to guessing, not analysis, then it's wrong. So the prediction or analysis are both true as long as they are done on a clear basis and with the correct technique.
#10 - January 30, 2020, 10:09:46 PM

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As traders we do have to trade well and in the right way because we are not gamblers where it is more the element of guessing, so good trading must be done based on knowledge and experience.
#11 - February 02, 2020, 04:13:36 PM

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Prediction has the meaning of making an estimate in price movements so there is still an element of guessing even though it is a little and becomes the final hope after we do the analysis according to our abilities and knowledge.
#12 - February 02, 2020, 04:34:25 PM

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If we only trade based on estimates without a clear analysis basis then it can be said to be gambling even though we do a technical analysis of 50 percent. The analysis must be 100 percent with the rest of the strategy, we can expect luck because in forex it is full of luck.
#13 - February 02, 2020, 04:49:59 PM

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Usually in analyzing in forex it is often called prediction because it is impossible for a trader to be able to analyze accurately 100 percent, there must be an element of guessing or prediction and prediction there is an element of luck.
#14 - February 03, 2020, 01:28:13 AM

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Forex knowledge is indeed very broad and unlimited, but in analyzing traders it will not be possible to use the knowledge 100 percent because there are still other uncertain knowledge that must be mastered such as fundamentals and market sentiments for example, so someone's analysis must not be purely based on science alone but luck factor too.
#15 - February 03, 2020, 04:17:41 AM


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